ICICI Securities Limited Broker Research reports

Media reports suggest that the top management of Tata Motors (TML) at its recent AGM expressed an intent to reduce automotive debt (~| 48,000 crore as of FY20) to near zero levels in the next three years. This follows the recent guidance of turning JLR, Indian operations sustainably FCF positive (from FY22E, FY21E respectively). While the intent is encouraging, we remain slightly circumspect about the deleveraging timeline, given that positive FCF from FY22E will continue to be accompanied by critical capex for new product development and new age technologies i.e. ACES. As per our...

Ensuring stable performance due to diverse segments GSL covers entire value chain of alcohol manufacturing undertaking an array of operating activities from manufacturing extra neutral alcohol (ENA) to contract bottling of Indian made foreign liquor (IMFL), to marketing & selling IMIL and several by-products. IMIL (~36% of net revenue in FY20) includes Rajasthan as the dominant contributor (~75-80% of IMIL revenues, ~30% market share in the state). Also, the company's JV Unibev' (90% owned, 10% owned by former USL MD Vijay Rekhi) has launched three IMFL liquor...

The 2-W segment is being considered for GST relief by the government, as per media reports. Currently, 2-W (along with rest of auto industry) are taxed at 28%. The industry has long called for at least a temporary rate reduction to 18% to mitigate rise in costs in the past few quarters (due to introduction of safety features like ABS/CBS, implementation of BS-VI norms, increase in registration fees & road tax by some states). Such a cut is viewed as having the potential to improve sentiment and thereby spur demand. However, our interaction with leading 2-W companies suggests that for the cut to result in...

Our interaction with leading 2-W companies suggests the decision could lead to lowering of prices at the consumer level provided the cut is implemented for the entire 2-W ecosystem (i.e. including components and materials) and not just the final product produced by OEMs. Lowering of tax on final product without a corresponding reduction in components used to manufacture it (i.e. inverted duty structure) would not really benefit end consumers. If the change is made applicable for the entire 2-W value chain, however, there would be a reduction in final prices by ~8% (on ceteris...

Loan book for the quarter was at | 209817 crore, up 6% YoY, with major proportion of loan mix skewed towards individual loans at | 195176 crore (up 6% YoY) while developer loans grew 7.5% YoY to | 14641 crore. Asset quality deteriorated with GNPA ratio at 2.83% against 1.98% in Q1FY20 though it remained stable sequentially. NII growth remained sluggish at 3% YoY to | 1220.6 crore, on account of slower credit growth. NIMs dipped ~3 bps YoY to 2.32% on the back of lower yields. Provisioning was down 78% YoY to | 56.25 crore. Lower tax rate led to healthy PAT...

MIL said (1) It operated at ~70% pre Covid levels in July and is currently operating at ~80% in August, with rural-led demand recovery (2-W, tractors) seen continuing; (2) August production levels Europe 85%, Mexico 75%, Asean 60%; (3) 2-W alloy wheel plant to be commissioned by September 2020 (full ramp up by mid next year), (4) large part of rights issue proceeds to be used to retire debt (marginally down QoQ) & is expected to be EPS accretive (5) Expect ~| 100 crore incremental sensors revenues in FY22E, (6) Delvis normal annual sales run rate is ~ | 250 crore; (7) Steep drop in...

Auto segment forms ~55% of revenues while footwear forms ~30%, with others contributing rest. MUL counts several major automotive OEMs both in India (MSIL, M&M;, TML, MG Motor, Honda), globally (VW, Ford, Chrysler) as its clients while also serving retail brands like Bata, Relaxo, Paragon, among others. Share of footwear in overall revenues is on the decline amid higher growth in auto, other segments. This bodes well for MUL as footwear ASPs are lower than those in automotive with blended ASPs at ~| 200-220/metre. Recently, receipts of approval from Mercedes...

MMF has undergone a large capacity expansion and improvement programme in the recent past. With capex spend of ~| 500 crore over the last three years, production capacities have grown ~54% from ~65,000 MT per annum to ~1 lakh MT per annum at present. MMF has added heavier press lines (6,300 tons, 7,000 tons, 8,000 tons) with a view to enhance offerings (acquired capabilities to provide 60-100 kg weight products vs. 2.53 kg weight products earlier). Amid soft demand scenario in key geographies, however, balance capex (of ~| 90-100 crore) would be backended and dependent on market recovery. Focus on increasing machining capabilities and value addition is expected to aid uptick in margins once...

EML retains strong financial strength, possessing a net cash positive B/S with cash and liquid investments on books worth | 6,807 crore as of FY20 (i.e. ~11% of current market capitalisation). The company has historically demonstrated excellent capital efficiency (~18% RoCE as of FY20) in addition to a negative net working capital cycle and best-in-class margins (~24% as of FY20). Core financials, while still healthy, are expected to reach...

Accelya reported dismal Q4FY20 (June ending) results mainly led by exposure to airline sector. Revenues fell 44.7% QoQ, 42.4% YoY to | 62.8 crore. EBIT margins were at 4.5% vs. 28.9% in Q3FY20. PAT declined 85.0% QoQ to | 3.6 crore. Due to challenging times, the company has not declared...