Mayur Uniquoters Ltd. share price forecast

Valuation and risks: We expect Mayur's revenue/EBITDA/Adj PAT to grow at a CAGR of 20%/18%/19% over FY21-23E. We have marginally revised our estimates due to continued high RM pressure and lower PU sales given the current run rate. Owing to the operating leverage visibility, we maintain 18x P/E multiple and maintain our existing fair value at Rs610. Our DCF fair value base TP stands at Rs570 (Bull/Bear TP of Rs740/340). Risks include slower-than-expected recovery in global...

INDIA | Institutional Research | Consumer | 6 August 2021 Mayur Uniquoters l BUY l TP: 610 Navigating uncertainty; better performance ahead Valuation and risks: We expect Mayur's revenue/EBITDA/Adj PAT to grow at a CAGR of 20%/22%/23% over FY21-23E. We have marginally revised our estimates due to high RM pressure and lower PU sales given the current run rate. Owing to the operating leverage visibility, we maintain 18x P/E multiple and roll forward our estimates, thus, slightly revising our TP upwards to Rs610. Our DCF fair value base...

Standalone Q1 revenue tripled YoY as volumes surged 217% aided by a low base

MUNI's standalone Q4FY21 revenue grew 35% YoY as volumes increased 26% aided by a low base

INDIA | Institutional Research | Consumer | 16 February 2021 Mayur Uniquoters l ACCUMULATE l TP: 470 Marching from Maruti to Mercedes Valuation and risks: We have revised our earnings estimates by incorporating minor price hikes, 7th PVC line capacity coming online in FY22 and better utilisation on the back of demand pick up. We roll forward our estimate but continue to assign 15x to FY23E EPS to arrive at our TP of Rs470. We have introduced a DCF valuation methodology in this update as we feel Mayur has a better hold on its cash and...

Mayur Uniquoters' (MUNI) Q3FY21 standalone revenue swelled 31% YoY to a record Rs 1.6bn.

INDIA | Institutional Research | Consumer | 13 November 2020 Mayur Uniquoters l ACCUMULATE l TP: 290 Nothing artificial' about this bounce back Valuation and risks: We have slightly revised our earnings estimates by incorporating minor price hikes and accounting for conservative volumes from Volkswagen and Mercedes. Mayur's buyback of 0.75mn shares at Rs 400 per share indicates management's strong belief in the future business environment and after a successful buyback, the D/E should remain well below 1.0x. We continue to value...

Mayur Uniquoters' (MUNI) Q2FY21 standalone revenue declined 11% YoY and volumes dropped 5% amid a continued slowdown in user industries (footwear, auto), albeit less pronounced than expected.

operational performance, c) higher other income and d) exceptional gains of Rs760mn. 2HFY20 plant and when situation normalizes this plant will also add to growth. FY21 is not looking is expected to be better than 1HFY20 with reasonable growth in exports and presence of levers that bad as it was at the end of Q1FY21. With volume recovery in footwear, ramp up of PU for margin improvement. However, we believe current valuations already discount most of the plant and businesses from new clients such as VW, Mercedes, BMW; we expect a strong...

Auto segment forms ~55% of revenues while footwear forms ~30%, with others contributing rest. MUL counts several major automotive OEMs both in India (MSIL, M&M;, TML, MG Motor, Honda), globally (VW, Ford, Chrysler) as its clients while also serving retail brands like Bata, Relaxo, Paragon, among others. Share of footwear in overall revenues is on the decline amid higher growth in auto, other segments. This bodes well for MUL as footwear ASPs are lower than those in automotive with blended ASPs at ~| 200-220/metre. Recently, receipts of approval from Mercedes...

plant and exports are behind (reasons for a de-rating over the last two years), at ~10x FY22e P/E, we believe in good scope for a re-rating given improving prospects. Its net-cash status and FCF generation ability even in the downturn are other positives. While the near-term outlook is challenging, we are positive...

Valuation and risks: Mayur is currently trading at a 9% discount to its 5-yr average 1-yr forward P/E. We continue to value Mayur at 15x FY22E EPS to arrive at our TP of Rs270 and change our rating from BUY to HOLD. We have slightly revised our earnings estimate. Risks to our call include slower-than-expected...

MUNI: Tepid quarter, upside limited; downgrade to ADD. Wholesale Inflation: WPI contracts, food inflation soars. Trade: Imports catching up, non-oil exports improve. BPCL: GRMs outperform but marketing to aid earnings growth. HMCL: Optimism priced in maintain REDUCE

Auto industry is looking forward for a better Diwali. On the back of improvement in rural Mayur had started reporting strong margins in normal business situation and strong demand, the outlook for Q4FY20 and Q1FY21 is good. margins will come back with sales going back to normal levels....

Valuation and risks: Mayur is currently trading at an 18%/78% discount to its 1yr forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiple. We value Mayur at 15x FY22E EPS to arrive at our TP of Rs269 and maintain a BUY. Post COVID-19, we have revised our earnings estimate and trimmed our TP from an earlier value of Rs317. Risks to our call include slower-than-expected recovery in automobile production due to...