ICICI Securities Limited Broker Research reports

AU SFB’s Q4FY25 performance was mixed with sustained growth momentum and benefits from operational efficiency, but elevated credit cost in unsecured portfolios (MFI + credit card + PL).

HCLT’s FY26 revenue organic guidance of 1–4% YoY CC appears optimistic at its upper end, implying -0.6% to 0.9% organic CQGR. It is supported by an exit growth rate of 1.6%. Management mentioned that it did not see any project deferral or rampdown due to tariff-related uncertainties in Q4FY25.

In the current volatile markets, Solar Industries’ (SOIL) stock has outperformed its peers. Its traditional India business continues to be on a stable footing and the exports and overseas segment is also expanding.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB) reported Q4FY25 PAT of INR 176bn (RoA steady at ~1.9%) led by stable core NIM QoQ and contained opex. Deposits growth (14% YoY) remains driven by term deposits (20% YoY) while CA grew 18% QoQ (up 1% YoY) due to seasonality.

ICICI Prudential (IPRU) has successfully accelerated volume growth (5%/15% growth in total APE FY24/FY25; 22.3% growth in retail WRP vs 17.4% growth for the private industry in 11MFY25) backed by well-executed distribution/product initiatives.

Q4FY25 revenue growth slowed to 7% YoY. EBITDA margin declined sequentially for the first time after seven quarters. Given the sustained pressure on revenue growth and all-time high EBITDA margin, the earnings growth outlook remains weak for FY26.

We upgrade IDFC First Bank (IDFCFB) to BUY with a revised TP of INR 75, as the large proposed capital infusion (INR 75bn) improves visibility on superior loan growth/operating leverage (without any material dilution in book value) topped with inexpensive valuations.

Tata Elxsi (TELX) has reported a muted Q4FY25 print with revenue contraction of 5.3% QoQ CC, roughly in line with our estimate (of -5.9%) and falling below consensus.

Infosys’ weak guidance with a widened range of 0-3% YoY CC for FY26 is due to weak exit growth rate of -1.1% YoY CC, heightened uncertainty due to global tariff wars and lack of mega deals reflected in muted TCV of USD 11.6bn, down 34% YoY in FY25.

Niva Bupa has been able to deliver standout growth in health insurance premiums (~40% CAGR between FY20-25) while its improved scale and assets under management should help improve margins and earnings growth ahead (expect IFRS PAT CAGR of 53% over FY25-27E).