Emkay Broker Research reports

BPCL’s Q4FY25 performance was much better than expected. SA EBITDA/APAT was down 15%/18% YoY to Rs78.1/45.5bn, albeit at a significant beat, driven by reported GRM of USD9.2/bbl (Emkay: USD6/bbl).

JSP reported adjusted EBITDA of Rs24.8bn (+9.8% vs Emkay; +1.5% vs consensus; +16.4% QoQ), led by lower coking coal cost and sequentially better production and sales volume of 2.1mt.

VED reported a steady Q4FY25 with EBITDA of Rs116.2bn (+4.5% vs Emkay; +3.0% QoQ); the performance was mainly led by sequentially better profitability in its Aluminium and Zinc India businesses.

Eternal delivered broadly inline operating performance in Q4. Revenue grew 7.9% QoQ, better than our estimate, led by Quick Commerce (QC) and Hyperpure. Food Delivery GOV saw a decline of 1.4% QoQ, due to persistent sluggishness in the demand environment, temporary shortage of delivery partners owing to high demand in QC, and increased competition from packaged food delivery in QC.

CEAT reported a strong Q4; revenue growth accelerated to 14% (9M: 9.5%). EBITDAM expanded by 100bps QoQ on 64bps higher gross margins (9% beat on consensus EBITDA).

VBL reported a strong and largely in-line quarter. India revenue growth was better at ~18% (vs expectation of ~15%), helped by ~16%/2% growth in volume/realization.

GO’s Q4 EBITDA was 7-10% better than estimates, largely led by higher growth in the LFS channel and better gross-margin on higher credit note. Revenue grew ~13%, led by 24% growth in LFS while EBO grew 11% (SSG: 2.1%). EBO SSG was driven by gain in realizations (flat volume).

Fino posted a slight 2.5% beat on PAT at Rs240mn, owing to strong momentum in CASA and the DPS segment, and partly offset by continued cannibalization of the remittance business.

AGEL’s consolidated Q4FY25 EBITDA rose 31% YoY to Rs24bn (up 28% QoQ), led by 30% YoY uptick in operational capacity and improvement in CUF (Khavda achieved 32% in Q4), leading to 44% growth in sale of power.

We downgrade IIB to REDUCE from Add, cutting our TP by 9.4% to Rs725 (from Rs800). This is in view of the spate of top management resignations, including the MD & CEO, which should increase business/margin disruption including risk of another round of deposit run-down, impact on asset quality, middlemanagement attrition, and possibility of appointment of an RBI nominee on the Board as well as a PSU banker as MD & CEO (similar to Bandhan/RBL).