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The first ATF price revision after the start of the Middle East (ME) conflict saw high frenzy—OMCs (IOCL) initially hiked domestic/international rates by 115%/107% MoM to Rs207/USD1.7 per ltr, followed by announcement of domestic scheduled airlines’ rate revision by only ~25% to Rs105/ltr as GoI action was aimed at shielding domestic air travelers from high fares (international fares unchanged).
An escalation in geopolitical conflicts has triggered material airspace disruption across critical international corridors, creating a multi-layered impact on IndiGo’s network, revenue, and cost structures, with meaningful implications for the nearterm earnings trajectory and margin resilience.
We maintain our constructive view on IndiGo. The key premise has been that of a structurally lower industry supply situation in the medium term which we believe may be a bigger investment thesis despite any short-term possible demand blip.
InterGlobe Aviation (INDIGO) reported a flat YoY EBITDAR of INR58.6b (est. INR59.8b) and an adjusted profit of INR20.5b (est. INR21.7b) in 3QFY26. EBITDA (ex-forex loss) was INR64.7b (down 2% YoY), as forex loss stood at INR11b vs. INR14.6b in 3QFY25.
India is emerging as a key beneficiary of global aviation growth, underpinned by rising long-haul demand, expanding connectivity, and robust outbound tourism.
IndiGo plans to add 158 pilots by Feb and 742 pilots by end-2026, which could escalate hiring costs amid intense industry competition Management has revised Q3 capacity growth guidance to high single digits for the peak season. However, near-term flight cancellations and elevated cost pressures are expected to weigh on FY26 earnings. IndiGo is expected to face heightened regulatory scrutiny and stricter compliance requirements in the near term, while the government is likely to promote greater competition and ensure operational stability. We downgrade our FY27E & FY28E earnings estimates by 43.1% & 10% to factor in the near term headwinds related to 10% cut in schedule, near...
We maintain our constructive view on IndiGo. The key premise has been that a structurally lower supply industry situation in the medium term is a bigger investment thesis, despite any short-term possible demand blip.
InterGlobe Aviation (INDIGO) reported a 64% YoY dip in EBITDAR to INR8.7b (est. INR25.8b) and a net loss of INR26.1b (est. net loss of INR6.6b) in 2QFY26.
Nailing the LCC model, IndiGo managed to capture its home market achieving ~64.4% share, supported by a fleet of ~416 aircraft and an orderbook of ~910 aircraft.
costs. However, softening fuel prices provided partial relief. The total fleet count stood at 416, with 8 additions and the return of 16 damp-leased units. Management guided for mid-single-digit capacity...
Our initial estimates factored in spread compression in FY25 vs. FY24. While, in H1FY25, this played out more than expected, there was substantial recovery in H2.
Company has recently signed Letter of Intent and offer to lease with separate international lessors for lease of 2 additional aircrafts of dry lease basis
InterGlobe Aviation (INDIGO) reported a 1% YoY decline in EBITDAR at INR56.9b (est. INR61.4b) and a PAT of INR21.6b (est. INR23.8b) in 1QFY26. Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) stood at 35.7b.
In a quarter marred by geo-political tensions, INDIGO IN's yield declined 4.9% YoY to Rs4.98 (PLe Rs5.05) while load factor was down 220 bps to 84.6% (PLe 85.6%) resulting in a top-line miss of 2.5%. However, FX adjusted EBITDAR margin of 28.6% was broadly in-line with our estimate aided by 21.9% YoY fall in fuel CASK to Rs1.38 amid fall in ATF prices and reduction in less fuel-efficient damp lease aircrafts. Fall in aircraft and engine rentals due to subsiding AoG issue is likely to be a key factor in ensuring CASK (ex-fuel & ex-forex) remains...
In FY25, Indigo reported a 17% YoY increase in revenue, primarily driven by an 11% YoY rise in passenger volumes. EBITDA grew by 11% YoY, though it was impacted by a higher forex loss on account of INR depreciation, an increase in lease expenses, costs associated with grounded aircraft (AOG) and elevated airport fees. Added 67 aircraft during the year, taking the total fleet count to 434. Management has guided for a double-digit capacity growth in FY26. The growth outlook remains strong, supported by a robust domestic network and increasing penetration in international markets. Consequently, we are revising our EPS estimates upward by 13.1% for FY26...
We increase our FY26E/FY27E PAT estimates by 13%/10% as we fine tune our yield and fuel CASK assumptions. INDIGO reported better than expected performance with FX adjusted EBITDAR margin of 30.8% (PLe 28.5%) led by 1) 2.2% rise in yield to Rs5.32 aided by Maha Kumbh and 2) 6.6% fall in fuel CASK to Rs1.60 amid benign ATF prices. Notwithstanding near-term challenges amid the ongoing geo-political tensions, ASKM growth guidance of mid-teens for 1QFY26E is encouraging. Further, we expect the overall pricing environment to remain stable with yields of Rs5.1 over next 2 years as the aviation market is...
Our initial estimates factored in spread compression in FY25 vs. FY24. While, in H1FY25, this played out more than we expected, there was a big recovery in H2.
We remain optimistic about InterGlobe Aviation’s long-term growth trajectory, supported by its leadership in India’s aviation market, sustained profitability, and clear roadmap for international expansion.
