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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    09 May 2022
    Five analyst stock picks this week

    Five analyst stock picks this week

    1. Mphasis: ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this IT services company with a target price of Rs 3,410, indicating an upside of 26.7%. In Q4FY22, the company’s revenue increased 4.8% QoQ to Rs 3,245 crore and profit by 9.6% QoQ to Rs 392 crore. According to the analyst Sameer Pardikar the profit growth was aided by higher other income. 

    “Strategy to mine top 10-20 clients, adding high potential new logos, rise in deal sizes & expansion in Europe bodes well for long term growth” for the company, says Pardikar. The analyst expects improving deal size, market share gains via vendor consolidation, low legacy exposure, and exposure to lesser impacted verticals will drive 22% CAGR growth in direct revenues in FY22-24. The analyst also adds that improving revenue trajectory will boost EBIT margins by 70 bps to 16.0% in FY22-24.

    1. Titan: Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this jewellery maker’s stock with a target price of Rs 2,900. This indicates an upside of 31.9%. Analysts Krishnan Sambamoorthy, Kaiwan Jal Olia, and Aditya Kasat say the “Q4FY22 result was above expectations, led by healthy sales growth in the non-jewelry segments.” In Q4FY22, the company reported a profit of Rs 660 crore, up 16.7% YoY, and consolidated revenue of Rs 7,800 crore, up 4% (the brokerage estimates were Rs 490 crore and Rs 7,270 crore, respectively) 

    The analysts add that “new customer additions remain strong, indicating continued market share gains from the competition (and) despite the volatility in gold prices and COVID-led disruptions, its earnings CAGR has been stellar (24%) for the past five-years ending FY22.” They expect this trend to continue.

    1. Can Fin Homes: Edelweiss maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this mortgage lender’s stock with a target price of Rs 800, indicating an upside of 54.7%. The brokerage remains positive about the company’s prospects given its robust Q4FY22 results and improving asset quality. The company’s net profit grew 20% YoY to Rs 123 crore and its net non-performing assets (NNPA) ratio fell 31 bps YoY to 0.3%. Analyst Jigar Jani says “Can Fin Homes’ Q4FY22 results beat our estimates on the net revenue and PPOP (pre-provision operating profit) fronts by 10% and 9%, respectively”. 

    Jani said growth was recorded across the board, with AUM (assets under management) growing 21% YoY to Rs 26,711 crore, driven by a sharp rise of 35% YoY in disbursements. NII (net interest income) grew 28% YoY to Rs 237 crore, driven by an improvement in insurance income, which is linked to disbursements. The analyst expects the loan book to expand at a CAGR of 20% and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 20.6% over FY22-24.

    1. Housing Development Finance Corporation(HDFC): Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this housing finance company, but cut its target price to Rs 2,900 from Rs 3,228, indicating an upside of 34.5%. Analysts Gaurav Jani and Palak Shah say, “HDFC reported a good quarter with all core metrics beating estimates. Individual disbursals saw an accretion of 18% YoY. Affordable housing saw good traction. Individual loan disbursals saw a 37% YoY growth in FY22”. Net interest income grew by 14% YoY to Rs 4,600 crore and asset under management grew by 14% YoY to Rs 5.7 lakh crore. 

    According to the analysts, the company’s management indicated that home loan demand remains strong while construction finance could see an uptick and the management commentary also suggested that home loan demand remained strong while the pipeline in construction finance and lease rental discounting was healthy. In terms of the HDFC and HDFC bank synergies the analysts say, “post the merger, all bank branches would source home loans which could drive strong home loan growth”.

    1. Central Depository Services (India) (CDSL): HDFC Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this depository services provider’s stock but has lowered its target price to Rs 1,500 from Rs 1,800, indicating an upside of 26.6%. The brokerage cut its target price as CDSL’s Q4FY22 revenue missed its estimate by 14.6%. Analysts Amit Chandra and Vinesh Vala say “the estimates were missed due to a sharp fall in IPO/corporate action revenue”. However, they remain positive about the company’s prospects as they expect steady annuity revenue, growth in BO (beneficiary owner) accounts, and IPO revenue led by the LICIPO.

    The analysts expect CDSL’s growth rate to moderate to the pre-pandemic level of 16% CAGR, following two years of robust growth of more than 50% YoY. The analysts expect an EBITDA margin of 67% in FY24 over FY23, and revenue to grow at a 15.4% CAGR over FY22-24. They also expect the company to gain a market share of 70% due to steady growth in the addition of BO accounts.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

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    The Baseline created a screener Top Gainers
    07 May 2022

    Top Gainers

    Stocks that are top gainers today
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    The Baseline created a screener All Stars: High Scorers …
    07 May 2022

    All Stars: High Scorers Across Metrics

    Stocks that score high across key metrics: DVM, Piotroski Score, Buy-Sell Zone, Consensus Estimates and SWOT
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    The Baseline
    06 May 2022

    More interest rate hikes are coming, as RBI plays catch-up on inflation

    Just one month ago, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das was shrugging off India's rising inflation levels.  "I don’t see inflation going up beyond 6%," he said in mid-March, "In fact, our expectation is that it will moderate to 4.5%."

    But then March inflation numbers saw India's CPI (Consumer Price Index) jumping to 6.95%, the highest since October 2020. Economists are expecting it to go even higher in April, and hit an inflation range of 7.4-7.5%. Inflation in May may also breach RBI's 6% target, hovering around 6.8%.

    As the chart shows, the bank's main policy rate, the repo rate is now lagging inflation badly compared to historical levels. Since October 2021, consumer inflation has been steadily rising while the RBI held its repo rate unchanged at 4%. The RBI has not in recent history, left the repo rate unchanged for so long. 

    As inflation broke RBI's acceptable ceilings, the Central Bank opted for an out-of-cycle rate hike of 40 bps this week. But it's not enough. We can now expect significant rate hikes in the June and August meetings of the Central Bank. The Indian economy will have to endure some pain in the short-term via rate hikes, to (hopefully) stabilize markets in the long term. 

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    The Baseline
    05 May 2022
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Maruti Suzuki India: This carmaker’s stock has plunged 4% after it announced its wholesale numbers for April. Total wholesales fell 1.6% YoY to 1.57 lakh units while passenger vehicle wholesales fell 2.9% YoY to 1.52 lakh units. However, the company posted robust Q4FY22 results, as its net profit rose 51.1% YoY to Rs 1,875.8 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 23.7%. Revenue grew 12.7% YoY to Rs 27,191.9 crore, even though the company sold 0.7% lower vehicles in Q4FY22 compared to Q4FY21. The rise in margins, despite the fall in volumes, is due to price hikes, lower discounts and softening of input costs. However, the company’s wholesales grew 14% QoQ in Q4FY22.

    The management expects demand for the passenger vehicles for the industry to grow to 34-35 lakh units in FY23 driven by robust demand despite the Covid-19 headwinds. The company increased its focus on high-end compact and utility vehicles to regain its lost market share in this space. The demand momentum looks stable as the order book as of April, 2022 stands at 3.2 lakh units, up 21.2% from the end of December 2021. However, the shortage of semiconductors and electronic components will most likely affect production in FY23. Though raw material costs dipped in 4QFY22 as metal prices softened, the management expects inflation to kick in during H1FY23 led by high steel prices.

    Brokerages like Axis Securities and Prabhudas Lilladher maintain a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock as they expect margins to expand on healthy demand and reduction in input costs. ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Hold’ rating due to the shortage of semiconductors despite healthy demand prospects.

    1. Tata Chemicals: This chemical company’s stock surged 11.7% after it announced its Q4FY22 results on April 29. Net profit surged 39X YoY to Rs 462.9 crore and revenue rose 32.8% YoY to Rs 3,586.9 crore. The company’s profit growth was driven by a revival in demand, a rise in export prices, absorption of high input costs, and lower taxes. EBITDA grew 133% YoY to Rs 657.4 crore due to improved realisations, despite high costs of gas, coal and freight.

    The basic chemical segment accounts for 75% of the company’s revenue and the segment also saw the highest growth in Q4FY22 – grew 37.5% YoY to Rs 2,902 crore led by favourable soda ash market conditions. Globally, demand for soda ash is rising, led by demand for lithium carbonate batteries and solar panels. Motilal Oswal expects demand for soda ash to stay robust for the next 18-24 months due to supply constraints and container freight issues. The brokerage expects the tight demand-supply situation to benefit the company.

    The highest revenue growth came in from the North American and Indian regions at 35.3% YoY and 31.8% YoY, respectively. The company has earmarked Rs 2,000 crore for capex to expand capacity in its India business during H2FY24. This capacity expansion will be spread over 5 years, which will increase the company’s production capacity of soda ash by 30%, soda bicarb by 40%, and silica by 5X.

    1. TVS Motor: This auto maker’s two-wheeler wholesales for the month of April 2022 rose 24% YoY to 2.8 lakh units, surpassing the growth rates of all other peers. The low base effect caused by the second Covid wave had a part to play here. This 20%+ YoY growth was primarily driven by TVS Motors’ scooter segment, the wholesales for which jumped over 50% YoY. The motorcycle segment on the other hand, posted lacklustre growth of just 4% YoY in April. Most two-wheeler makers except Bajaj Auto reported a YoY rise in their monthly wholesales for the first time in 2022 buoyed by the wedding and festive season. If we also consider the wholesales reported by TVS Motors for Q4FY22, it fell by just 8% YoY to 8,14,682 units, lower than the double-digit fall witnessed by all other competitors. Hence, its performance on the sales volume front was fairly resilient.  According to HDFC Securities, TVS Motors also gained market share on YoY basis in FY22 for both motorcycles and scooters segments.

    The company reported a 7.4% YoY rise in its operating revenues while its profit fell over 10% YoY to Rs 278 crore. Higher input costs and semi-conductor shortages hit the profitability of the two-wheeler industry in FY22. But top players expect a strong pick-up in demand in next two months on improved rural sentiment. Outlook for TVS Motor is especially positive since it has a strong pipeline of 2W and 3W electric vehicles to be launched in the next 2 years.

    1. Alembic Pharmaceuticals: This pharma company’s stock fell over 8% intraday on Monday after it announced its Q4FY22 results. Its profit fell 86% YoY in Q4FY22 to Rs 35.6 crore mainly due to a Rs 188 crore worth of non-recurring expenses related to its wholly-owned subsidiary Aleor Dermaceuticals. As a result, the company’s net profit missed Trendlyne's Forecaster estimates by 76.6%. However, revenue rose 9% YoY in Q4FY22 to Rs 1,426 crore on the back of 17% growth to Rs 557 crore in the generic US business.

    Alembic Pharma’s US business grew despite the prevailing pricing pressure in the US market, due to one-time sale opportunities, market share gain in a few products, and stock adjustments. The company also launched its first inhalation product in the US in Q4FY22. Alembic Pharma has invested about Rs 1,800 crore over recent years, geared towards US formulations including acquiring Aleor Dermaceuticals on March 29. Given the intense competition in the US market, pricing pressure will continue to impact the company’s margins in FY23. In Q4FY22, EBITDA margin (pre-research & development expenses) fell 12 percentage points YoY to 30% due to an increase in logistics costs, raw material costs, and pricing pressure.

    Brokerages like ICICI Direct, BoBCaps, and Yes Securities maintained their ‘Hold’ rating but reduced the target price because of the margin pressure and additional integration costs for Aleor Dermaceuticals. The brokerages have a neutral outlook on the company because of the slow growth outlook in US generics and delay in its new product launches.

    1. Godrej Properties: This realty company’s stock fell by more than 5% on the bourses on Thursday even after its Q4FY22 results show a strong recovery. The company is back in the black with a net profit of Rs 260 crore against a loss of Rs 192 crore in Q4FY21. The booking value also sees a 111% jump sequentially to Rs 7,861 crore.

    With demand picking up, the company’s collections in Q4 were its highest ever rising 44% YoY increase to Rs 2,900 crore. Brokerage Motilal Oswal is quite optimistic about the stock and expects the business momentum to continue over the next three years. It expects pre-sales CAGR to grow by 23% over FY22-24. On the other hand, Godrej Properties is also facing the brunt of inflation as its input costs see a 1.2X surge to Rs 1,166.2 crore. However, the company hiked its prices by 5-7% across its portfolio to mitigate margin pressures. However, with the recent repo rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India, home loans will get expensive soon. With most of its project pipeline of premium residential projects to be completed by H1FY23, it’ll be interesting to see if demand holds up.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movement, analyst calls or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    04 May 2022
    Five analyst stock picks this week

    Five analyst stock picks this week

    1. Nippon Life India Asset Management: Axis Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this asset management company (AMC) but reduced its target price to Rs 410 from Rs 440, indicating an upside of 31.4%. The brokerage cut its target price as Nippon Life AMC’s Q4FY22 revenue missed its estimates by 8.6%. Revenue growth also lagged AUM (assets under management) growth due to pressure on equity yields. However, analyst Dnyanada Vaidya continues to remain bullish on the company as its market share improved 26 bps YoY in FY22 to 7.38%. Overall, AUM grew 24% YoY to Rs 2.83 lakh crore in FY22.

    Vaidya says that “the company added 7 million folios in FY22 with a continuous focus on the retail segment. Retail AUM stood at Rs 79,300 crore which is 28% of AUM''. The company enjoys a leadership position in the ETF (exchange-traded funds) domain with a 68% share in ETF volumes on the National Stock Exchange and BSE. Axis expects profit to grow at a 14.4% CAGR over FY22-24.

    1. Ashok Leyland: Motilal Oswal Motilal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this commercial vehicle maker with a target price of Rs 165, indicating an upside of 31.1%. The brokerage expects a revival in the commercial vehicle cycle and feels a rise in market share will drive strong growth for the company. Analysts Jinesh Gandhi, Vipul Agrawal, and Aniket Desai expect the company’s domestic M&HCV (medium & heavy commercial vehicles) market share to recover to 31-33% by the end of FY23. 

    They also said that “the recovery will be driven by a recovery in the bus segment, plugging of product gaps, and revival in southern India”. The company’s M&HCV market share recovered by 3.6 and 4.3 percentage points QoQ to 26.1% and 30.4% in Q3FY22 and Q4FY22, respectively. Moreover, the analysts also expect growth in the LCV (light commercial vehicle) segment, exports and the spares business segment will aid in boosting revenue growth in the coming quarters. The analysts expect revenue to grow at a 32.9% CAGR over FY22-24.

    1. Tatva Chintan Pharma Chem: ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this pharmaceuticals company but reduced the target price to Rs 2,875 from Rs 3,000. This indicates an upside of 24.7%. In Q4FY22, the company’s profit fell 17.1% YoY to Rs 17.5 crore. The revenue fell 9.3% YoY to Rs 98.5 crore which was 11% below the brokerage’s estimate. The company expects the coming quarters to be weak due to continued chip shortage and anticipates revival only in H2FY23. 

    “Tatva Chintan’s gross profit margin remains strong despite commodity inflation, due to pass-through agreement both from vendors and customers with a quarter lag. We also suspect inventory gains as the company is sitting on large inventory,” say analysts Sanjesh Jain and Akash Kumar. They added that, “new customer additions should also add to demand”. 

    The company is adding new products like Flame retardant, high purity products in agro-chemical and pharmaceuticals, and monoglyme among others to its pipeline, the analysts said They believe that the new products increases growth visibility for the company in the medium term.

    1. ICICI Bank: LKP Securities give a ‘Buy’ rating to this bank with a target price of Rs 1,037 indicating an upside of 40.4%. “Earnings in 4QFY22 re-acknowledge our conviction that ICICI Bank is preparing for sustainable and prudent growth, led by tech-driven initiatives and normalization in credit cost,” says analyst Ajit Kumar Kabi. In Q4FY22, the bank reported NII growth of 20.8% YoY to Rs 12,604.6 crore while profit grew 59.4% YoY to Rs 7,018.7 crore. 

    In Q4FY22, the bank’s advances stood at Rs 8.6 lakh crore increasing 17.1% YoY and deposits stood at Rs 10.6 lakh crore which grew by 14% YoY. LKP expects the loan book to grow at 20% CAGR over FY22-24, led by technology initiatives, and expects the return on asset and return on equity to be at 1.8% and 15%, respectively. 

    1. NTPC: ICICI Direct upgrades to a ‘Buy’ call from ‘Hold’ on this utilities company and gives it a target price of Rs 190 indicating an upside of 19.1%. “NTPC has set aggressive long term renewables capacity addition target of 60,000 MW by 2032, which was earlier pegged at 30,000 MW,” says analyst Chirag Shah. The company expects to spend 40% of the total capex planned for FY22-23 on renewable projects which will further increase in FY25. 

    The company currently has 6,500 MW of renewable projects in various stages. NTPC has also started entering other avenues of green energy like hydrogen.  It recently has invited online bids from electrolyser technology providers, with whom it intends to participate in upcoming tenders on green hydrogen.

    Shah adds that “with strong focus on alternative energy spectrum, NTPC may be able to break the underperformance of the last decade”. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

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    The Baseline
    02 May 2022
    Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q4FY22?

    Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q4FY22?

    By Suhas Reddy

    Many investors closely track portfolios of ace investors to know which stocks these superstarsare bullish and bearish on in the market. We looked at the stocks superstar investors bought in Q4FY22 here.

    Now, we check the stocks superstar investors like Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Sunil Singhania, Dolly Khanna, and Ashish Kacholia, among others, sold during Q4FY22. 

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala reduced his stake in multiple companies

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s biggest stake cut was in the auto sector. He reduced his stake in the tractor manufacturing company Escortsto below 1% from 5.2%. The stock fell 14.8% from the beginning of 2022 till April 28. This could be attributed to sluggish rural demand, as Escorts tractor wholesale sales fell 32.8% YoY to 21,895 units in Q4FY22. 

    The ace investor also sold a 0.2% stake in Wockhardtbringing his holding to 2.1%. This stock has tanked 26.5% in 2022, as of April 28.

    Jhunjhunwala also cut his stake in the state-owned steel maker SAIL(Steel Authority of India) to below 1% from 1.09% in Q3FY22. The stock is down 11.2% from the beginning of 2022 till April 28, 2022. It rose 24% after hitting a 52-week low in February but then gave up some of its gains.

    Jhunjhunwala also reduced his stake in Aptechby 0.1% to 23.4%, in TV18 Broadcastby 0.3% to 1.2% and in Indian Hotels Companyby 0.1% to 2.1%. He also pared his holdings in Titan Company, Crisil, and Delta Corp, bringing his share in these companies down to 5.1%, 5.5% and 7.5%, respectively.

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund sold small stakes in multiple companies 

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund sold a 0.2% stake in plastic products company Surya Roshniin Q4FY22, bringing the fund’s holding down to 1.2%. In Q4FY22, the company’s stock price fell by 29.1%. The fund also sold a 0.2% stake in HSIL, bringing down the holding in the company to 1.9%. 

    In Q4FY22, Singhania’s fund reduced its stake in Jindal Stainless (Hisar) by 0.1% to 3.8% and in Paras Defence and Space Technologiesby 0.1% to 1.3%. He also sold 0.1% stake in ADF Foodsand Saregama Indiabringing the fund’s holding down to 1.6% and 1.4% respectively, in these companies.

    Ashish Kacholia sold stake in Mahindra Logistics, now holds below 1%

    Ashish Kacholiabought a 1.1% stake in Mahindra Logistics in Q3FY22, but in Q4FY22 he sold part of his holding and now owns less than 1% of the company. The company’s stock price saw a huge dip in Q4FY22, falling as much as 40.8% since January, but recouped some of the losses since then. 

    Kacholia also sold his stake in Poly Medicure and now holds below 1% stake in the company. This company’s stock price fell 16% from the start of January to February end.

    The marquee investor also sold a 0.6% stake in Vishnu Chemicals. He reduced his holdings in small quantities in companies like Somany Home Innovationto 1.3%, Mold-Tek Packaging to 3.1%, and ADF Foodsto 1.1%. 

    Dolly Khanna reduces stakes in textile, auto ancillary and cement companies

    Dolly Khannasold a 0.6% stake in Talbros Automotive Componentsbringing her holding down to 1.1%. This could indicate that she expects that the semiconductor shortage and high metal prices will continue to hamper the auto industry. 

    The ace investor also sold a 0.2% stake in the cement and construction company KCP, bringing her stake down to 3.7% and reduced her stakes in cement and infrastructure companies like Rain Industries,NCL Industries,and Tinna Rubber & Infrastructure, cutting each stake by 0.1%. 

    She also pared her stake in textile manufacturer Deepak Spinnersto 1.4%, and in Monte Carlo Fashionto below 1%.

    Vijay Kedia didn’t make major changes to his portfolio in Q4FY22 

    Vijay Kediasold a 0.3% stake in the IT software and consulting company Ramco Systems in Q4FY22 bringing his stake down to 2.4%. Ramco Systems reported losses in three consecutive quarters since Q1FY22. The losses stood at Rs 6.1 crore in Q1FY22, Rs  17.2 crore in Q2FY22, and Rs 11.1 crore in Q3FY22. He also sold a minor portion of his stake in Tejas Networksand now holds 3.4%.

    Porinju V Veliyath reduces his stakes in paints and consumer appliances

    Porinju V Veliyathsold a 0.7% stake in decorative paints and industrial coatings maker Shalimar Paints, bringing his holding down to 1.6% at the end of Q4FY22. This can be because oil & gas prices are expected to remain high due to geopolitical tensions, which will lead to higher input costs for paint makers. The marquee investor cut his stake in Somany Home Innovationto below 1% from 1.6%. The company sells consumer appliances under the brand name ‘Hindware’, ‘Moonbow’ and furniture under the brand name ‘Evok’. 

    Radhakishan Damani sold a minor stake in Metropolis Healthcare & Blue Dart

    Radhakishan Damani sold a minor stake in stocks like Metropolis Healthcare and Blue Dart Express bringing his holding down to 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively, in these companies. Metropolis Healthcare’s stock price fell 40.8% in Q4FY22.

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    The Baseline
    29 Apr 2022
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Bajaj Finance: This NBFC’s stock fell on the bourses despite robust Q4FY22 results. The company’s net profit surged 80% YoY to Rs 2,419.5 crore, in line with Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates. Asset quality improved as gross NPAs fell 19 bps YoY to 1.6%. Total AUM (assets under management) has seen a rise of 29% YoY to Rs 1.97 lakh crore. These numbers however, did not enthuse investors or even brokerages.

    HDFC Securities increased its target price marginally by 0.2% to Rs 6,430, on account of lower credit costs. However, it maintained its ‘Sell’ rating because of Bajaj Finance’s higher operating expenses. Operating expenses for the company rose 30.7% YoY to Rs 2,100.6 crore. The brokerage believes that operating expenses will be a cause of concern throughout FY23 affecting net interest margin (NIM). NIM fell 20 bps to 12.8% in Q4FY22.

    Motilal Oswal expects NIMs growth trajectory to remain affected in face of increasing borrowing costs. NIMs weren’t affected much in Q4FY22 because of the excess liquidity Bajaj Finance carried. The brokerage also expects operating expenses to remain elevated due to investments in tech (Phase-2 of digital transformation) and investment in human capital. However, it expects the NBFC to deliver an RoA (return on assets) of 4.2-4.4% over FY23-24.

    1. Cyient: This IT Services company’s stock rose 10% after it announced its Q4FY22 results. Cyient’s net profit rose 17% QoQ to Rs 154.2 crore, beating the Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 20.7%. Revenues increased by 2% QoQ to Rs 1,320.6 crore and operating profit margin of the company rose marginally by 8 bps QoQ to 17.98%. The company derives over 83% of its revenues from the services segment. This segment grew marginally by 1.5% QoQ driven by aerospace, portfolio, and communications verticals. Revenue from the design-led manufacturing (DLM) segment fell 8.5% YoY to Rs 197.6 crore due to semiconductor supply-side challenges, which are expected to persist in FY23. 

    Cyient’s revenue is heavily concentrated in aerospace, rail transportation, and communication segments. To diversify its revenues, the company signed an agreement to acquire a 100% stake in Citec for 94 million euros (around Rs 800 crore) in an all-cash deal on April 25. Citec is expected to help Cyient diversify its presence in energy, industrial and plant engineering (EIP), which currently accounts for 2% of its revenues. In addition to this, Cyient also announced that it will acquire Grit Consulting for about Rs 283 crore ($37 million) on Thursday. Grit Consulting is a Singapore-based consulting firm with expertise in asset-intensive industries like metal mining and energy.

    ICICI Securities maintained its ‘Buy’ rating after the Citec acquisition was announced, it believes the acquisition will reduce the revenue cyclicality by diversifying the revenue mix. However, ICICISec expects Cyient to face difficulty cross-selling in new geographies as more than 75% of Citec’s revenue comes from Finland and Sweden.

    1. Hindustan Unilever (HUL): This FMCG stock gained the most in the last few weeks, in spite of analysts cutting their target prices. HUL’s Q4FY22 results have been in line with Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates. However, its Q4 results did not impress analysts. Net profit grew 5% YoY to Rs 2,307 crore, and revenue rose 10.2% YoY (Rs 13,846 crore) helped by hike in prices.

    Brokerages like Axis Securities, Motilal Oswal, ICICI Securities, and HDFC Securities have slashed their target prices for HUL because of slowdown in rural demand, input cost inflation, and delay in demand recovery. With the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe, rising commodity prices have further added to the woes of consumer facing companies hitting their gross margins. HUL’s gross margins fell 300 bps YoY to 49.5% in Q4FY22. ICICI Direct expects inflation woes to drag profit and margins in FY23-24 hence cutting its earnings estimate for the company by 10%.

    1. KPIT Technologies: This IT services company’s stock rose by 12.5% on Wednesday after it declared its Q4FY22 results. The company’s net profit rose 14.6% QoQ to Rs 80.5 crore and revenue rose 5.3% to Rs 664.8 crore, in line with Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates. Revenue growth was led by autonomous and connected domains across commercial vehicles (8% QoQ) and passenger vehicles (2.4% QoQ). Even with supply-side constraints and fresher additions, EBITDA margin improved by 15 bps QoQ to 18.6%, led by offshoring. Offshoring consistently increased in FY22, rising by 10% YoY over FY21, and resulting in higher volume growth and improved margins.The management expects offshoring to continue to increase, which will offset the impact of wage inflation and supply-side constraints in FY23.

    The software company won a $74 million deal with a European OEM (original equipment manufacturer), and the management expects 80% of the revenue to be delivered over the next 5 years. Total deals won during Q4FY22 stand at $125 million (excluding the $74 million deal with the European OEM). KPIT Technologies is solely engaged in automotive software integration and its domain expertise makes it a niche player in the market. This makes it well placed to benefit from the increased R&D (research and development) spend on CASE (connected, autonomous, shared, electric) vehicles by OEMs. The management expects revenue growth of 18-21% YoY CC (constant currency), and EBITDA margin in the range of 18-19% for FY23.

    1. Varun Beverages: This PepsiCo bottling company’s stock rose 4% intra-day on Thursday after it announced its Q4FY22 results. Its net profit rose 98.2% YoY to Rs 271.1 crore and revenue grew 26.2% YoY to Rs 2,867.5 crore. The sharp rise in net profit was driven by improvement in margins, reduction in finance costs, and higher profitability from international markets. With the scorching heat wave in India, demand is expected to spike in the peak months of April-June. The management believes it is well-placed to cater to the surge in demand and expects to optimize its capacity utilization across all plants and enhance its reach across established and underpenetrated markets during the peak months. The company plans to expand into underpenetrated markets like Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Madhya Pradesh, where per capita consumption is low. The company commissioned a manufacturing plant in Bihar this quarter to expand its manufacturing presence in the underpenetrated market where it sees a huge potential to gain market share. For medium to long-term, the management expects to deliver a healthy volume growth on the back of an improving demand environment.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movement, analyst calls or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    27 Apr 2022
    Chart of the Week: Forecaster estimates show analysts disagreeing on target prices

    Chart of the Week: Forecaster estimates show analysts disagreeing on target prices

    It’s normal for analysts covering publicly-listed companies to differ in their views on where a company’s stock price is headed in the near future. But some stocks and industries, in particular, have wildly divergent analyst views in terms of target share price.

    If we divide the highest target price for a stock by the lowest target price, we can see the disagreement ratio in analyst views on a stock’s future price.

    The stocks with the highest divergence (above 2 in disagreement ratio) are mainly metal, banks, heavy electrical equipment makers, internet companies and consumer electronic companies, among others. Some metal stocks see huge differences of opinion with the likes ofSteel Authority of India,JSW Steel, andTata Steel seeing the highest divergence in the highest and lowest target price, Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates show.Steel Authority’s highest target price is nearly 4.5 times its lowest target price.

    Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and lockdowns in China, this divergence among analysts on metal stocks is understandable. Companies likeJSW Steel, andTata Steel’s high and low target prices differ by 3.8 times and 3 times respectively, as predicted by various analysts.

    Bank stocks likeBank of Baroda andBandhan Bank’s target price difference ratio is 2.9 and 2.8 times respectively.Canara Bank’s highest target price is nearly 3.1times its lowest target price. It will be interesting to see if this changes once all the Q4FY22 results of the banks are declared soon.

    Then there is tech. Last year saw many tech-based startups list in India to much fanfare, but this has also brought in a lot of divergence among analysts as to their future business prospects.One97 Communications or Paytm’s stock price has thehighest divergence among analysts (highest target price is 3.6 times the lowest target price), followed byZomato(highest target price is 2.9 times the lowest target price), andNazara Technologies(highest target price is 2 times the lowest target price).

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    The Baseline
    26 Apr 2022
    Which stocks got the attention of Jhunjhunwala, Singhania, Kacholia in Q4?

    Which stocks got the attention of Jhunjhunwala, Singhania, Kacholia in Q4?

    By Suhas Reddy

    Superstarinvestors with large portfolios bought stakes in some interesting companies in Q4FY22. We take a look at the stocks which Superstar investors bought or added to their portfolios this quarter.

    The tumultuous first few months of 2022 meant that most Superstar investors other than Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Dolly Khanna, and Ashish Kacholiasaw the value of their public portfolios shrink. By the end of FY22, Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio value had risen by more than Rs 9,000 crore while Khanna’s value increased as she went on a buying spree.

    No new stocks in Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio 

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’sconsolidated net worth at the end of Q4FY22 was Rs. 33,753.9 crore. The ace investor added a 0.4% stake in Canara Bankto take his stake to 2%. Canara Bank’s shares gained 74% in the past year as of April 26, 2022. The ace investor raised his stake in Jubilant Pharmovaby 0.5% to 6.8%, and in Indiabulls Housing Financeby 0.2% to 1.3% in Q4FY22. Indiabulls Housing Finance and Jubilant Pharmova’s shares are down 10.3% and 40.3%, respectively, over the past year. It appears the ‘Big Bull’ is optimistic about the two companies moving forward despite the stocks correcting this year.

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund picks up minor stakes in small-cap stocks

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund’s net worth in Q4FY22 was Rs 2,257.6  crore. Abakkus Fund bought an additional 1.1% stake in Rupa & Companyin Q4FY22. Rupa & Company is a knitwear brand that produces casual wear, sleepwear, and thermal wear. His fund also bought an additional 0.4% stake in the precision engineering company Dynamatic Technologies. 

    In Q4FY22, Singhania’s Abakkus Fund also added minor stakes in small-cap companies, including a 0.1% increase to take his stake in Rajshree Polypackto 7.8%, and a 0.1% stake to take his stake in The Anup Engineeringto 5.7%.  He also bought a 0.1% stake in IIFL Securitiesto take his stake in the company to 3.2%.

    Ashish Kacholia adds four new companies to his portfolio

    Ashish Kacholia’s net worth in Q4FY22 was Rs 1,948.8 crore. Kacholia bought a 2.8% stake in IT services company Creative Newtechduring the quarter. He also picked up a 1.8% stake in Stove Kraft, a household appliances manufacturer, and a 1.8% stake in Fineotex Chemicaland bought a 1.4% stake in Gravita India, which makes lead metal and lead products.

    The marquee investor also added a 0.7% stake in the polymer processing company Xpro Indiaincreasing his holding to 3.6%. He bought an additional 0.2% stake in Yasho Industries. There were four other stocks where he increased his stake by a small amount like Ami Organics, United Drilling Tools,Faze Three, and La Opala RG. 

    Dolly Khanna buys stakes in fertilizer, metals, and textile companies in Q4FY22

    Dolly Khannawent shopping in Q4FY22. She scooped up stakes in two metal and mining companies–Pondy Oxides & Chemicals(a 3.6% stake) and Sandur Manganese & Iron Ores(a 1.5% stake). This was probably in anticipation of a surge in commodity prices due to the conflict in Europe. The stocks gave a 3.8X and 3.5X return, respectively, in the past year. 

    Khanna also bought stakes in two agrochemical and fertilizer companies–Sharda Cropchem(a 1.4% stake) and Khaitan Chemicals and Fertilizers(a 1% stake) Both these companies gave a 2.3X and 6X return respectively over the past year. She also bought a 1.4% stake in Goa Carbonand a 1.1% stake in Nahar Spinning Mills.

    Dolly Khanna also raised her stakes in multiple companies in Q4FY22, including three fertilizer producers – Rama Phosphatesby 0.3% to 2.6%, Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizersby 0.2% to 1.7%, and Aries Agroby 0.1% to 1.3%. 

    She also raised her stake in two textile companies, RSWMby 0.1% to 1.3% and Nitin Spinnersby 0.1% to 1.8%. She appears bullish on the fertilizer and textiles sectors. She also added stakes in a host of other companies, which include Prakash Pipes, Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances, Ajanta Soya, Simran Farms, Polyplex Corporation, New Delhi Television, and Control Print.

    Porinju V Veliyath raises stake in Kaya and Taneja Aerospace & Aviation

    Porinju V Veliyath-led Equity Intelligence India added a 0.2% stake in Kayato take his stake to 1.5% and added a 0.1% stake in Taneja Aerospace & Aviationto take his stake to 1.2%. Kaya is engaged in skincare, haircare, and body care treatment, and the stock gained 38.3% over the past year. Taneja Aerospace & Aviation is engaged in the manufacture and sale of various parts and components to the aviation industry. This stock gave an over 5X return in the past year.

    Radhakishan Damani adds a marginal stake in VST Industries

    Radhakishan Damani’s net worth in Q4FY22 was Rs 1,73,822  crore. This also includes his stake as a promoter in Avenue Supermarts. The ace investor bought a minor 0.1% stake in VST Industriesbringing his total stake in the company to 32.3%. His total stake in the company is divided between him and his companies Derive Trading And Resorts, and Bright Star Investments. 

    Vijay Kishanlal Kedia loads up on Elecon Engineering

    In Q4FY22, Vijay Kishanlal Kediaadded a minor stake in Elecon Engineering Companyand Vaibhav Globaltaking his holding up to 1.2% and 1.9%, respectively. The stocks rose 32.9% and 25.9%, respectively since the end of Q4FY22.

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