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The Baseline
27 Apr 2022
Chart of the Week: Forecaster estimates show analysts disagreeing on target prices

It’s normal for analysts covering publicly-listed companies to differ in their views on where a company’s stock price is headed in the near future. But some stocks and industries, in particular, have wildly divergent analyst views in terms of target share price.

If we divide the highest target price for a stock by the lowest target price, we can see the disagreement ratio in analyst views on a stock’s future price.

The stocks with the highest divergence (above 2 in disagreement ratio) are mainly metal, banks, heavy electrical equipment makers, internet companies and consumer electronic companies, among others. Some metal stocks see huge differences of opinion with the likes of Steel Authority of India, JSW Steel, and Tata Steel seeing the highest divergence in the highest and lowest target price, Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates show. Steel Authority’s highest target price is nearly 4.5 times its lowest target price.

Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and lockdowns in China, this divergence among analysts on metal stocks is understandable. Companies like JSW Steel, and Tata Steel’s high and low target prices differ by 3.8 times and 3 times respectively, as predicted by various analysts.

Bank stocks like Bank of Baroda and Bandhan Bank’s target price difference ratio is 2.9 and 2.8 times respectively. Canara Bank’s highest target price is nearly 3.1 times its lowest target price. It will be interesting to see if this changes once all the Q4FY22 results of the banks are declared soon.

Then there is tech. Last year saw many tech-based startups list in India to much fanfare, but this has also brought in a lot of divergence among analysts as to their future business prospects. One97 Communications or Paytm’s stock price has the highest divergence among analysts (highest target price is 3.6 times the lowest target price), followed by Zomato (highest target price is 2.9 times the lowest target price), and Nazara Technologies (highest target price is 2 times the lowest target price).

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