Trendlyne Blog: The Baseline, Latest on stock market and finance in India and the world.

09 Nov 2019

Taking the bull by the horns: Look for a long horizon

This line is from Warren Buffett, American investor and Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett, who never bets for the short-term, is considered one of the most successful investors in the world, and has an approximate net worth of Us $82 billion, which makes him the third-wealthiest person internationally.

Buffett's investing philosophy is, "Don't lose money". But he personally lost about $23 billion in the financial crisis of 2008, and his company lost its AAA ratings. So what does this mean? Buffett's argument is about mindset - don't play to lose when it comes to the stock market. Do your homework. Don't gamble, don't invest like it's a card game.

Buffett believes the most important quality for an investor is not intelligence, but attitude and approach to the stock market, and a willingness to show patience. A good investor focuses on their own goals rather than being swayed one way or another by the crowd. Markets will swing. That's the nature of the market. But up or down, the investor keeps to the strategy that they have found works for them. And the strategy tends to be a long-term, patient one.

The Baseline

08 Nov 2019

Results Screener: DLF, Indraprastha Gas among firms with profit growth YoY and QoQ

With results season in full swing, September quarter performance numbers are coming out everyday. The Live Results Screeners sift through these results to identify the best and worst performers. This Results Screener looks at stocks that announced results within the past two days, and saw net profit growth both YoY and QoQ (subscription, but screenshot above). Companies delivering a good performance on these metrics include real estate firm DLF, Indraprastha Gasand NBFC company Manappuram Finance.

The Baseline

06 Nov 2019

It's the season for CFO resignations

Results season is also the time that Chief Financial Officers and other C-Suite management resign, either because they were waiting out the clock till the end of the quarter, or because of missed targets, with quarter result numbers that their bosses are not happy about. Either way however, investors see big resignations like these - and their timing - not good news for companies. Some resignations over the past 24 hours:

The CFO of fertilizer company Aries Agro has resigned. The firm is a majority family owned company, and investor Vijay Kedia held stock in the firm until June 2018.
CFO of CIMMCO has resigned. In CIMMCO's case the resignation may partly be an outcome of the company merger with parent firm Titagarh Wagons, although the cause has been publicly notified as 'personal'.
The CFO of pharma firm Piramal Phytocare has resigned, as has the CFO of Radha Madhav Corporation.
(To track all major resignations, use Discover)

An auditor submitting a resignation letter while citing their "concerns" sends share prices spiralling down. However, a CFO’s exit can precede this and is a relatively early sign that some things are going financially wrong with a company - before a balance sheet reveals it. It's not the case every time, but if a company is already weakening, a CFO resignation is an additional red flag.

The Baseline

25 Oct 2019

Markets Today: Opening bell, Oct 25, 2019

Nifty 50 was trading at 11585.50 (2.9, 0.0%) , BSE Sensex was trading at 39144.17 (123.8, 0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 9436.30 (-1.4, -0.0%)

Market breadth is holding steady. Of the 1263 stocks traded today, 560 were gainers and 611 were losers.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include PNB Housing Finance Ltd. (502.15, 12.36%), IDFC First Bank Ltd. (40.25, 3.60%) and Infosys Ltd. (651.80, 2.59%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Vodafone Idea Ltd. (3.85, -11.49%), Bharti Infratel Ltd. (224.40, -5.54%) and InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (1586.45, -4.71%).

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

7 stocks overperformed with 52 week highs, while 11 stocks tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Granules India Ltd. (124.35, 0.00%), Titan Company Ltd. (1379.90, 0.39%) and Reliance Industries Ltd. (1430.00, -0.45%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Bharti Infratel Ltd. (224.40, -5.54%) and CCL Products India Ltd. (196.00, -1.56%).

5 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Castrol India Ltd. (147.60, 2.07%) and Swan Energy Ltd. (105.05, 0.62%). 10 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Hexaware Technologies Ltd. (337.45, -2.54%) and AIA Engineering Ltd. (1645.05, -0.98%).

The Baseline

24 Oct 2019

Results Analyzer: Agro tech Foods, Polycab India deliver strong results

by Ritmbarah Arora

Aided by the recent corporate tax cut, early trends are showing resilient double-digit growth in the quarterly results despite the slowdown (with some exceptions, like Maruti Suzuki). Agrotech Foods, the Rakesh Jhunjhunwala portfolio stock, and Polycab India delivered strong results.

Agro Tech Foods Profile and Quarter Performance

Gurgaon headquartered Agro Tech Foods Ltd (ATFL) is in the business of marketing food and food ingredients to consumers and institutional customers. The company is affiliated to ConAgra Foods Inc. of USA, which is one of the largest food companies. ATFL offers its products under various categories including edible oils and sprays, snacks, soups, puddings, desserts, spreads, meal and meal enhancers. The quarterly result of the company has been announced today, post and the company rendered a good performance in the last quarter.

Net profit of ATFL increased by 68.6% YoY to Rs 15.4 crore in Q2FY20 as against Rs 9.14 crore during the previous Q2FY19. Sales declined 3.01% to Rs 204.46 crore in Q2FY20 as against Rs 210.80 crore during the previous Q2FY19. The total revenue for the current quarter has been reported Rs 205.6 crore as against Rs 211.7 crore during Q2FY19.

Though the total revenue is less than the last year same period revenue, growth of total revenue quarter is higher than historical averages. Operating profit observed a sharp increment from the last quarter and also Q2FY19. The operating profit is Rs 18.4 crore as against Rs 14.6 crore in the Q1FY20 and Rs 17.8 crore in Q2FY19. Profit before tax also observed an upsurge reported at Rs 14.4 crore as against Rs 10.7 crore in Q1FY20 and Rs 14.1 crore in Q2FY19.

Polycab India Profile and Quarter Performance

Polycab India Ltd also announced its results today. As soon as the numbers came out, the share price hit its 52-week high on news that the company’s revenues had increased by 24% YoY to Rs 2,242 crore led by strong growth across segments. Net profit stood at Rs 194 crore in Q2Y20 as against a profit of Rs 90 crore in Q2FY19. EBITDA margin improved to 12.1% from 11.9% in Q2FY19. PAT grew by 117% to Rs 1,938 mn in Q2FY20 as against Rs 895 mn in Q2FY19.

Polycab India Limited produces and distributes electronic equipment. The company offers cables, wires, fans, switches, lighting equipment, junction boxes, circular lids, inspection bends and accessories. The Chairman and Managing Director of Polycab India, Inder Jaisinghani commented on the financial performance, “We have delivered another quarter and half year of robust growth. Our profitability has more than doubled during the quarter and our customer-centric focus and robust distribution network have ensured that we maintain our growth momentum”.

The Baseline

24 Oct 2019

Markets close lower, Maruti Suzuki falls on results

Markets closed lower today. Nifty 50 closed at 11579.15 (-25.0, -0.2%) , BSE Sensex closed at 39020.39 (-38.4, -0.1%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 9436.35 (-22.3, -0.2%). Market breadth is in the red. Of the 1651 stocks traded today, 656 showed gains, and 900 showed losses.

Maruti Suzuki fell on results which showed profits declining over 39% YoY, with car sales numbers falling 30% YoY. Discounting and price cuts have also impacted the auto maker's margins.
Granules India sees a breakout today, gaining sharply on high volumes.
The CFO of TVS Sricharkaannounced his resignation. Track keywords in stock exchange filings via Discover.
Approximately 10 lakh shares of Varun Beverages changed hands in a block deal.
Top gainers in markets today include Inox Leisure and Pi Industries.
Agrotech Foods is up on results, with the company showing slight decline in revenue growth YoY and a 15%+ jump in net profit growth YoY.
Markets are up in early trading. Nifty 50 was trading at 11647.65 (43.6, 0.4%) , BSE Sensex was trading at 39215.53 (156.7, 0.4%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 9490.25 (31.6, 0.3%). Market breadth is in the green. Of the 1355 stocks traded today, 842 were on the uptick, and 432 were down.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Castrol India Ltd. (144.85, 8.10%), PI Industries Ltd. (1428.15, 6.96%) and Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (1768.00, 5.22%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Vodafone Idea Ltd. (4.25, -24.78%), Indian Bank (123.95, -13.26%) and Bharti Infratel Ltd. (237.00, -8.62%).

Movers and Shakers

26 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Thyrocare Technologies Ltd. (561.95, 9.01%), Navin Fluorine International Ltd. (827.55, 8.90%) and Castrol India Ltd. (144.85, 8.10%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Vodafone Idea Ltd. (4.25, -24.78%), Bharti Infratel Ltd. (237.00, -8.62%) and Hexaware Technologies Ltd. (344.70, -5.86%).

Blue Dart Express Ltd. (2321.55, -0.85%) was trading at 33.9 times of weekly average. Varun Beverages Ltd. (629.10, 0.70%) and Bharti Airtel Ltd. (372.00, 3.23%) were trading with volumes 16.8 and 8.6 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

23 stocks made 52 week highs, while 15 stocks tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Adani Transmission Ltd. (266.30, 1.52%), Divi's Laboratories Ltd. (1766.50, 1.80%) and Gillette India Ltd. (7867.15, 0.74%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Bharti Infratel Ltd. (237.00, -8.62%) and CCL Products India Ltd. (199.30, -8.49%).

9 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Castrol India Ltd. (144.85, 8.10%) and Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (1768.00, 5.22%). 19 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (329.95, -7.06%) and Hexaware Technologies Ltd. (344.70, -5.86%).

The Baseline

23 Oct 2019

When Senior Executives go, they rarely say why

by Ritmbarah Arora

One trend that tends to pick up towards the end of a quarter, are senior executive resignations. This happens typically when there are internal disagreements about company performance, or when senior management don't like how the numbers are looking, and decide to exit. And sometimes, it is just time for a change.

Executives at high levels - Chief Executive Officer/Chairman, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer - usually resign citing 'personal reasons' rather than airing dirty laundry, and since these resignation letters must be disclosed in stock exchange filings, we can take a look at senior management who put in their papers in just the last month. (You can search for any terms inside filings using Discover).

Company Name

Executive Resigning

Share Price Change Since Resignation

Quick Heal Technologies

COO

5.28%

Chemcrux Enterprises

CFO

5.1%

Dollar Industries

CFO

-3.05%

Expleo Solutions

Chair & Director

-0.31%

Cox & Kings

CFO

-18%

Mr. Vijay Mhaskar, COO of Quick Heal Technologies: Headquartered in Pune, Maharashtra, Quick Heal Technologies Ltd is an IT security solutions company. The company develops security software for consumers, servers, cloud computing environments and small and medium enterprises and sells products directly to customers or through its partner channel. Quick Heal develops its own security suite, Quick Heal Total Security which uses the BitDefender scanning engine. Mr. Vijay Mhaskar, the Chief Operational Officer of the company, resigned from his position on account of personal reasons, effective from October 11, 2019.
Mr. Premchand V. Tiwari, CFO of Chemcrux Enterprises: Based out of Ankleshwar, Gujarat, Chemcrux Enterprises is a manufacture of intermediates for bulk drugs, dyes and pigments. The esteemed clientele in India of the company include many multinationals, reputed pharmaceutical organization and regular exports to many countries. Mr. Premchand, the Chief Financial Officer of the company resigned from his position due to personal reasons effective October 12, 2019. The company has appointedMr. Sushilkumar B. Tripathi as the new CFO, effective from October 12, 2019.
Mr. Lalit Chand Sharma, CFO of Dollar Industries: Headquartered in Kolkata, West Bengal, Dollar Industries Ltd is into hosiery, apparel and textiles business. The company has 15% market share along with exports of their production across the globe which emerged as the highest selling Indian innerwear brand in the Middle East and Gulf countries. Mr. Lalit Chand Sharma, Chief Financial Officer of the company, resigned from his position on October 14, 2019 on account of personal reasons, effective from November 1, 2019.
Mr. Rene Gawron, Chairman & Director of Expleo Solutions: Based out of Chennai, Tamil Nadu, Expleo Solutions Ltd is a public incorporated company on June 8, 1998. The company is active in a variety of industries including banking & financial services, automotive & manufacturing, insurance, retail & logistics, telecommunications, energy & utilities and public services. Mr. Rene Gawron, Chairman & Director of Expleo Solutionsresigned from his position on October 15, 2019 due to personal reasons, effective immediately.
Mr. Anil Khandelwal, CFO of Cox & Kings: Headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, Cox & Kings is one of the longest established travel companies. The company has historically been an army agent, a travel agent, a printer and publisher which also worked as a news agent, cargo agent, ship-owner, banker, insurance agent and dealer of several travel-related activities. Its core activities now include the sale of packaged holidays. Mr. Anil Khandelwal, Chief Financial Officer of Cox & Kingsresigned from his position due to personal reasons, effective from October 14, 2019.

The Baseline

23 Oct 2019

Top Recommendations by Analysts this Week

Warren Buffett once said, “Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future”. This is a rational message for investors in the stock market - many experts have burned their fingers on stock market predictions. An investor doesn’t need to be a genius to be good at stock picks, but there is a lot of hard work and due diligence involved. Though no one can predict the future, brokerages try to offer their expert opinion about the best stock in the market. Here are some of the top recommendations this week:

Wipro Recommended by Geojit BNP Paribas, HDFC Securities and ICICI Direct: Bangalore, Karnataka headquartered Wipro Ltd is a multinational corporation that provides information technology, consulting and business process services. Because of good performance and consistent revenue generation, Wipro has been recommended by Geojit BNP Paribas, HDFC Securities and ICICI Direct. Geojit BNP Paribas recommends buying this stock as revenue for Q2FY20 rose to Rs 15,126 crore (4.0% YoY), beating the street estimates by 1.6% despite delay in renewal of major contracts.

Operating profit margin expanded 350bps YoY to 17.7% resilient to decline in IT services margins to 18.1% (vs 18.4% in Q1FY20). Net profit for the quarter surged to Rs 2553 crore (35.8% YoY), driven mainly by lower tax-rate for the quarter of 18.3% (vs 22.1% in Q2FY19).

Geojit reiterates their HOLD rating on the stock with a revised target of Rs 266 based on 15.5x FY21E EPS. This stock buy recommendation was made when the price was at Rs 248.90. Since then the price of the stock has seen an incremental growth of 6.87%. Abidali Z Neemuchwala, CEO and MD of Wipro commented, "We had a good in-quarter execution on both revenues and margins. The overall growth was broad-based with 6 out of 7 industry verticals growing on a YoY basis and we signed a large deal in India aligned to our strategy of taking global offerings to India customers".

Mastek Recommended by HDFC Securities: Headquartered at Mumbai, Maharashtra, Mastek Ltd is a global technology company offering enterprise level digital transformation services and software for large public and private enterprises in the UK, US and India. HDFC Securities recommends purchase of Mastek managed flat growth in CC terms despite challenging macro environment.

Though revenue was GBP 28.1 mn, in CC terms it was flat QoQ and de-grew 2.3% YoY. But Mastek is recovering its US business and managing Brexit uncertainty. The company will benefit from the off-shoring opportunity arising with UK public sector. HDFC Securities expect GBP growth for FY20/21/22E at 0.1/9.6/11.0% and 5.4% EPS CAGR for FY19-22E. The recommendation was made at the price of Rs 342.70 and the target price is Rs 505. Since the time of recommendation, the stock has increased by 47.36%.

Cyient Ltd. Recommended by Motilal Oswal: Hyderabad, Telangana headquartered Cyient Ltd is focused on engineering, manufacturing, data analytics and network & operations. The company is featured among the top 30 outsourcing companies in the world as of 2018 data. Motilal Oswal recommends the purchase of this stock as revenue grew by 4.9% QoQ vs estimate of 3.1% QoQ with an increased momentum in organic revenue growth. Though EBIT margin was 9.6%, growth was driven by the services verticals of Energy and Natural Resources (9.8% QoQ), Portfolio (+6.9% QoQ), Transportation (+3.3% QoQ) and Medical (8.6% QoQ). DLM revenue at USD23.8m was higher than the estimate of USD22m. The buy recommendation was made at the price of Rs 447.65 with a target price of Rs 600. Since the recommendation was made, the price of the stock has increased by 33.90%.

ACC Ltd Recommended by IDBI Capital: Headquartered at Mumbai, Maharashtra, ACC Ltd is one of the largest producers of cement in India. The stock price of the company contributes in calculating BSE Sensex. This is the only company to get Superbrand status in India. IDBI Capital recommends buying this stock as the company reported good set of 3QCY19 results. EBITDA was 3.2% while PAT was lower by 7.4%. IDBI Capital recommended a buy Rs 1,535.10 with a target price of Rs 1,702. Since the time of recommendation, the stock price has seen an upside of 9.56%. IDBI Capital has revised its CY20 EBITDA estimates upwards by 6.6% based on which the target price has been revised at Rs 1,702 as against the earlier target of Rs 1,598.

Hindustan Unilever Ltd by Axis Direct: Headquartered at Mumbai, Maharashtra, Hindustan Unilever Ltd is a British-Dutch manufacturing company. Its products include foods, beverages, cleaning agents, personal care products, water purifiers and consumer goods. Axis Direct recommends a buy as the company delivered a strong Q2FY20 despite challenging scenario. EBITDA grew 16% YoY to Rs 2,443 crore led by 290 bps expansion in margin while recurring PAT grew 20% YoY to Rs 1,848 crore to led by corporate tax rate cuts. Axis Direct recommended a buy at Rs 2,103.85 with a target price of Rs 2,175. Since the recommendation was made, the stock price has increased by 3.23%.

With the beginning of Q3, major ups and downs have been observed in the share market. A sample of 69 companies which declared results for September quarter reported a 12.5% YoY rise in aggregate net profit. With respect to the performance of the companies in the second quarter, Deepak Jasani, Research Head of HDFC Securities commented, “In Q2FY20, although corporates would have lower base of profits (in the year-ago quarter), lower operating leverage in Q2FY20 (due to slow demand) would mean that margins may not show a jump.”

The Baseline

22 Oct 2019

Results Screener: Stocks with results in past two days, showing profit growth

As results roll in, this Results Screener (subscription, but screenshot above) identifies stocks whose results appeared in the past two days, and delivered both YoY and QoQ net profit growth. Stocks in the list include Kotak Mahindra Bank (whose results arrived today), LIC Housing Finance, GlaxoSmithKline Pharma, and others. See all results screeners.

The Baseline

21 Oct 2019

Markets closed for elections, results will continue

Elections in Maharashtra mean that exchanges are closed today. Earnings announcements will continue, with Axis Bank, Ultratech Cement, Hindustan Zinc among others scheduled to release their quarterly results today. Keep an eye out on the results analyzer.