Oil India Ltd. share price target

OIL's buyback plan to return 24% cash to shareholders To result in EPS accretion by 4.6%: The Board of Directors of OIL at its meeting held on November 19, 2018, approved the share buyback of up to 5.05 crore equity shares (4.45% of outstanding equity capital) through the tender offer route, aggregating to Rs. 1,086 crore at Rs. 215 per share. The buyback amount...

Our TP is Rs 221/sh (6x Sep-20E standalone + Rs 80 from investments). Maintain BUY. OILs 2QFY19 revenue was at Rs 37.44bn (+51.3% YoY, 10.4% QoQ), led by higher oil realisations at Rs 5,150/bbl (+59.9% YoY, +6.8% QoQ) and increase in natural gas realisation to USD 2.9/mmbtu (+16.7% YoY). Partially offset by 1.4% reduction in crude oil sales volumes to 0.834mmt. EBITDA was up 45.7% YoY and 4.7% QoQ to Rs 14.75bn.

Oil India Ltd Q2FY19 results Comment Revenue rose by 10.42% to Rs. 3743.58 Cr in Q2FY19 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it increased by 51.33% when compared with Q2FY18. The value of Sales has been increasing throughout the period.

Oil India's (OINL) Q2FY19 results were largely in-line with our estimates. Revenue was up 51.3% YoY to Rs37.4 bn while EBITDA and PAT were up 45.7%/33.4% YoY to Rs14.7 bn/Rs8.6 bn, respectively. Oil production volume remained flattish YoY to 0.86mmt while gas production volume declined 4% YoY to 734mmscm. Oil net realization was up 47% YoY to US$73.4/bbl while calculated gas realization was up 26% YoY to Rs7.4/scm. However, 666bps rise in other expenses (13.1% of revenue) led to 153bps drop in EBITDA margin to 39.4% during the quarter. We raise our EBITDA/EPS estimates by 4% for FY19E/FY20E as we revise our INR exchange rate to Rs70/US$ from Rs68/US$ for...

12 November 2018 Revenue increased 51% YoY (+10% QoQ) to INR37.4b, marginally ahead of our estimate of INR35.7b, led by better-than-expected crude oil production and QoQ). EBITDA growth was restricted to 46% YoY (+5% QoQ) (at INR14.7b in line with our estimate of INR14.7b) due to higher other expenditure of INR73.8m). PAT of INR8.6b (+33% YoY, +23% QoQ) came in below our estimate YoY, +127% QoQ). Gross realization was impacted by rising crude oil prices. Production of crude oil stood at 0.86mmt (flat YoY, +1% QoQ) and of gas at 0.7bcm (-9% YoY, +4% QoQ). Total production declined 4% YoY (+3% QoQ) to 1.55mmtoe.

Revenue grew by 13.07% to Rs. 3390.46 Cr in Q1FY19 when compared to the previous quarter. Oil India Ltd Q1FY19 results Comment

Oil India (OIL) Q1FY19 result came as a mixed bag where Revenue and EBITDA was largely in line with our estimates while net profit was a miss to our estimates owing to higher tax expenses and lower other income. Revenue was up 45.4% YoY to Rs33.9bn, while EBITDA was up by 61.1% YoY to Rs14.1 bn and PAT was up 56.2% YoY to Rs7bn. Oil production remained flattish YoY to 0.844mmt while gas production volume declined 4% YoY to 696mmscm. Oil net realization was up 49% YoY to US$72/bbl while calculated gas realization was up 25% YoY to Rs7.4/scm. We raise our EBITDA/EPS estimates by 36%/33% for FY19E and 15%/14% for FY20E on higher crude oil price and...

Our SOTP target is Rs 314/sh (9x Jun 20 standalone core EPS + Rs 86/sh from investments). Maintain BUY. OILs 1QFY19 revenue was at Rs 33.9bn (+45.4% YoY, 13.1% QoQ), led by higher oil realisations at Rs 4,823/bbl (+54.6% YoY, +15.4% QoQ) and increase in natural gas realisation to USD 2.9/mmbtu (+16.6% YoY). Partially offset by 0.6% reduction in crude oil sales volumes to 0.82mmt. EBITDA was up 61.1% YoY and 75.9% QoQ to Rs 14.08bn.

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Bi-monthly update and chart book June 29, 2018 We seek your feedback and support in the ongoing Asia Money survey. Click here to make your appreciation count ONGC/OIL's crude output was flat/up 1% while gas fell 3%/1% MoM in May 2018 (day adjusted). Cairn Rajasthan output also is estimated to be down 3% MoM. Refinery throughput surged 8% MoM. IOCL's Paradip utilization touched 100%, partially offset by decline in Koyali/Haldia. BPCL Kochi touched 110% while HPCL's throughput rose 4-6%...

Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) is engaged in refining, transportation and marketing of petroleum products. IOCL's net revenue increased strongly by 17% YoY in Q4FY18 led by higher crude oil prices and sales volume. EBIDTA and adjusted PAT rose by 150% and 40% YoY, respectively mainly due to higher refining margin and inventory gains. We lower EBITDA margin estimates for FY19E by 280 bps to factor in...