NTPC Ltd. share price target

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

We attended NTPC’s analyst meet (on 18 Aug’25). In a bid to play a key role in India’s energy transition, NTPC, a thermal power giant, is transforming itself into a diversified power genco.

We reiterate our Neutral stance on NTPC with a TP of INR380. After a 17% correction in the share price over the last 12M, valuations at 11x FY27 P/E appear relatively reasonable, even as the long-term project pipeline continues to build up, supported by an expanding footprint in nuclear, PSP, renewables, and green chemicals.

Q1FY26 standalone adj. PAT of Rs. 4,414 crore rose 5% y-o-y inline with the 4% y-o-y increase in the regulated equity base.

NTPC – the largest thermal power player in India, is looking to add shades of green to its portfolio. It has substantial capacity addition plans on both thermal and renewables front.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

We recommend a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 365/share, implying an upside of 10% from the CMP.

In FY25, NTPC's coal production saw a significant 31.4% growth to 46 million metric tonne (MMT) from 35 MMT in FY24. NTPC's financial performance was robust. The company has positioned itself well to meet the evolving energy needs of the nation. Its strategic focus on expanding its renewable portfolio, enhancing operational efficiency and driving technological innovation is expected to drive growth and improve its market reputation and growth prospects. The company is expanding its footprint through international...

The power demand in YTDFY25 (till February) is up only 4.4% y-o-y because of the impact of the monsoon this year and weak economic activity. However, with a hot summer expected this year and temperatures expected to rise, power demand should pick-up.

We recommend a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 360/share, implying an upside of 10% from the CMP

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Q3FY25 standalone adj. PAT grew by 6% y-o-y to Rs. 4,618 crore inline with the 7% increase in the regulated equity base. Standalone revenue of Rs. 41,352 crore was up only 4.8% y-o-y because of the weak power demand.

NTPC (standalone)’s reported 3QFY25 EBITDA came in 2% above our estimates, though adjusted PAT was below due to a higher-than-expected tax rate and previous year-related adjustments.

Q2FY25 standalone PAT was up 19.7% y-o-y to Rs. 4,649 crore with the regulated equity base growing 7.7% y-o-y to Rs. 89,430 crore. Consolidated PAT of Rs. 5,274 crore was up 14% y-o-y.

NTPC reported standalone 2QFY25 EBITDA of INR96.7b (-8% YoY), 19% below our estimate of INR119b. Sharp rise in other opex (INR55b vs. INR34bin 2QFY24) led to the miss at the EBITDA level.

NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL), a 100% subsidiary of NTPC, is looking to debut on exchanges as the company files its DRHP. In this note, we analyse NGEL’s business, look at its valuation metrics and evaluate key concerns.

Q1FY25 standalone PAT was up 11% y-o-y to Rs. 4,511 crore with the regulated equity base growing
13% y-o-y to Rs. 88,600 crore. Consolidated PAT of Rs. 5,506 crore was up 12% y-o-y.