NTPC Ltd. share price target

NTPC reported Q4FY17 results, which were above our estimates operationally. However, a one-time loss of | 783 crore made PAT look optically below our estimates Reported revenues were at | 20416.7 crore vs. estimate of | 18898 crore. Revenue beat was due to better-than-expected energy sold. The company sold 59.6 billion units in Q4FY17 vs. our estimate of 58.1 billion units. PLFs of coal plants were at 81% vs. 77% in Q3FY17 EBITDA came in at | 6203.5 crore vs. our estimate of | 5265 crore....

NTPC's reported earnings declined by 25.0% YoY to Rs20.8bn in 4QFY17 owing to impairment of Rs7.8bn in Ratnagiri Gas & Power and Rs8.7bn provisioning towards incremental employee cost (revision as recommended by 7th Pay Commission). Out of Rs8.7bn provisioning, Rs5.2bn has been considered as pass-through by way of regulatory asset. Adjusting these one-offs, PAT declined by 5.1% YoY to Rs27.9bn in line with our estimates. Looking ahead, we expect NTPC's business to improve further backed by higher capacity commercialisation, better fuel availability and likely improvement in demand owing to UDAY scheme. Rolling over our estimates to...

Revenue increased by 5.26% to Rs. 20416.67 Cr in Q4FY17 when compared to the previous quarter.

Adjusted PAT (~Rs 22.3 bn) was flat YoY despite 8% YoY increase in regulated equity to Rs 425 bn. This can be attributed to lower incentives reflected in flat generation (61.4 bn units) on low PLF of coal-based plants at 77%.

Revenue grew by 0.24% to Rs. 19287.47 Cr in Q3FY17 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it grew by 11.11% when compared with Q3FY16.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research NTPC reported Q3FY17 results, which were in line with our estimates on the PAT front while revenues where higher than estimates on account of better-than-expected energy generated and sold Revenues came in at | 19287 crore vs. estimate of | 17874 crore. The revenue beat was due to better-than-expected energy sold. NTPC sold 57.28 billion units in Q3FY17 vs. our estimates of 56.74 billion units. PLFs of coal plants were at 77% vs. 74.7% in Q2FY17...

NTPC has delivered an improved performance on key operational metrics in 3QFY17 with EBITDA and pre-tax profit rising by 9.3% YoY and 9.8% YoY, respectively. Net sales surged by 10.9% YoY owing to higher realisation and ~8% growth in regulated equity led by commissioning of new capacity. In line with our expectation, its reported PAT dipped by 7.5% YoY to Rs24.6bn due to higher effective rate (19.7% in 3QFY17 vs. 4.3% in 3QFY16). However, adjusted PAT grew by 8.5% YoY to Rs22.4bn in 3QFY17 vs. Rs20.6bn in 3QFY16. Despite decline in PLF led by lower system demand and fuel issues, we see further improvement in business dynamics owing to higher...

NTPCs 3QFY17 recurring PAT of Rs 22.4bn was in line with our estimates. Pan-India coal PAF for 9mFY17 stands robust at 90.3% (vs 90.8% YoY), leading to negligible under-recovery in fixed costs. Commissioning of new capacities (thermal and solar) led to the increase in power generation ( 1% YoY) despite a drop in coal PLF?s (-100bps, 77.2%). Coal imports have substantially reduced (0.12 mmt vs 1.9 mmt YoY).

NTPC's adjusted net sales surged 3.9% yoy in 2QFY17, in-line with our estimate, owing to ~9% growth in regulated equity on the back of commissioning of new capacity, partly offset by lower other income and PLF incentives. Its EBITDA rose by 31.1% yoy owing to improved operating margins (488bps), while PBT surged by 40.9% yoy owing to better operating performance. However, reported PAT dipped by 17.9% yoy to Rs24.9bn due to adjustment of I-T refund worth Rs11.9bn in 2QFY16. Though its power plants continues to remain under pressure with decline in PLF due to lower system demand and fuel issues, we expect better operating performance on...