NMDC Ltd. share price target

For Q2FY17, NMDC reported healthy sales volume numbers. For the quarter under review iron ore sales volume stood at 8.1 Million tonnes (MT), higher by 24.6% YoY and 3.8% QoQ....

NMDCs numbers were ahead of our estimates, driven by realisations (Rs 2,117, -12.9% YoY, -3.4% QoQ), likely led by higher premiums NMDC charges in Karnataka. EBITDA/t at Rs 1,025 (-26.6% YoY, -2.5% QoQ) was ahead of estimates driven by better realisations.

Price hike, buyback, non-core biz exits to drive re-rating; upgrading to Buy NMDC's earnings outlook has improved significantly after the adoption of differential regional pricing, improved viability of exports and a sharp pick-up in pellets exports /coking coal prices/sponge iron prices in India. Dispatches and margins are already improving. We expect a price hike in October. Efficiencies in capital allocation too are improving due to its high dividend payout, large buyback and intention to exit non-core businesses (e.g. steel plant project), which will drive re-rating of the stock. We raise our EPS estimate by 50% to INR9 for FY17 and by 106% to INR8.3 for FY18. We also remove...

NMDCs numbers continue to slide and miss expectations. Reported EBITDA (Rs 5.4bn, -62.0% YoY, -16.2% QoQ) was below estimates on account of lower pricing and higher other expenses. The company will bear the District Mineral Foundation (DMF) and National Mineral Exploration Trust?s (NMET) expenses (30% and 2% of royalties).

The company reported a net income from operations of | 1530.0 crore, up 0.8% QoQ, down 45.9% YoY and below our estimate of | 1757.2 crore. The company's iron ore sales volume of 8.6 million...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research On the back of strength in global iron ore prices, with effect from March 11, 2016, NMDC has hiked prices of lumps, fines by | 150/tonne each....

NMDC missed our estimates (EBITDA Rs 6.4bn vs. estimate of 7.4 bn, -66.9% YoY, -28.6% QoQ). This was driven by lower realisations (Rs 2,058/t, -50.8% YoY, -15.3% QoQ, estimate of Rs 2,124/t). Selling costs jumped as exports resumed (NMDC bears freight/export duty and the ROM realizations are much lower than from domestic sales).

NMDC beat our expectations (EBITDA Rs 9.0bn vs. estimate of Rs 8.0bn, -55.0% YoY, -18.2% QoQ) driven by lower consumables and employee costs. The profitability declined sharply owing to pressure on prices (-44% YoY, -12.5% QoQ), with weaker volumes (6.7 mT, -8.2% YoY) weighing on as well.

NMDC has already cut its ore price by ~30% (vs 4QFY15 avg for fines) to maintain competitiveness vs imports and Orissa miners. However, given poor demand (dispatches down 20% YoY in April-May), especially in the Bailadilla sector and nil exports, pressure on prices will remain.