Natco Pharma Ltd. share price target

NATCO Pharma (NATCO) is a R&D; focussed, vertically integrated pharmaceutical company with an experienced management team and presence across multiple speciality therapeutic segments. High emphasis on R&D; and complex molecules focusing on long...

Q3 sales were 16% below expectations on weak India business (down 24% YoY on weak Hep-C sales) and lower-than-expected market share in gCopaxone 40mg (14-15%). However, gross margin was strong at 88% (up 18.6 pp YoY)

Natco Pharma Ltd Q3FY18 results comment Revenue grew by 31.76% to Rs. 562.2 Cr in Q3FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. On the other hand, it decreased by 16.08% when compared with Q3FY17.

gCopaxone and gTamiflu Provide Significant Opportunity: Natco's partner Mylan launched gCopaxone both 20mg and 40mg. All patents expired for 20mg but 40mg patent litigation is ongoing, thus 40mg is an at-risk launch. The 40mgversion is protected by 5 orange book patents, claims of 4 of these patents were held invalid by District Court and litigation of the fifth patent issued in Aug 2016 was dismissed with prejudice.

Though Q2 revenue declined 9% YoY (on a high base), EBITDA and PAT grew 16% and 27% led by higher-margin limited-competition product gDoxil in US. We expect strong PAT growth of 113% in H2 driven by gCopaxone, gDoxil, gTamiflu OS.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues declined 7% YoY to | 427 crore (I-direct estimate: | 496 crore). The revenues were lower than I-direct estimates mainly due to increase in competition in Hep C sales EBITDA margins improved 580 bps YoY to 28.6% (I-direct estimate: 31%) mainly due to a favourable product mix. EBITDA grew 16% to | 122 crore (I-direct estimate: | 154 crore) Adjusted net profit increased 28% YoY to | 85 crore (I-direct...

Natco Pharmaceuticals Limited (NATCO) Q2FY18: Underperformance led by pricing pressure across; exciting launches ahead.

Natco's (partner Mylan) 1st generic approval for gCopaxone 40mg (USD 2.9 bn market; possibility of 180 day exclusivity) and 2nd generic approval for gCopaxone 20mg (USD 700 mn market) demonstrate its R&D; ability to execute on complex generics with intricate chemistry and complex processes

Natcos (partner Mylan) 1st generic approval for gCopaxone 40mg (USD 2.9 bn market; possibility of 180 day exclusivity) and 2nd generic approval for gCopaxone 20mg (USD 700 mn market) demonstrate its R&D; ability to execute on complex generics with intricate chemistry and complex processes

EBITDA margins improved 801 bps YoY to 30.7% (I-direct estimate: 27.5%) mainly due to a favourable product mix. EBITDA grew 77% to | 137 crore (I-direct estimate: | 109 crore) Adjusted net profit increased 96% YoY to | 93 crore (I-direct...