Cipla: Owing to competition, we expect Cipla to garner 1-7% market share for volume-limited period and 15% thereafter. Hence, with above market share and a 70-90% price erosion assumption, our gRevlimid NPV arrives at | 41. We maintain BUY rating and arrive at a target price of | 965, including...

Q2FY21 on the back of growth in exports of formulations, APIs as well as one-offs like the Revlimid settlement income. India business continued its de-growth during the quarter with a YoY decline of 11% on account of lower oncology and Hep-C sales. The company has stated that it would look to launch the highly anticipated Revlimid in the U.S during FY22. Natco expects the launch of its agrochemical molecules by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval....

Natco Pharma reported revenue of Rs8,022mn, which was above our/consensus estimate by 51%/59%. Revenue was up 42% QoQ and 65% YoY. The beat in revenue was led by onetime settlement income for Revlimid in Canada. The API segment grew by 193% YoY but its profit contribution was not meaningful as it was led by low-margin supplies of Tamiflu API to partner ahead of the pandemic season. Natco has received approval for gTamiflu in Brazil too and should help it to generate incremental revenue during the pandemic season. However, considering the safety precautions that the public at large is adhering to on account of COVID, it is likely that the flu season may be weak this year. Potential approval of gRevlimid and agrochemical product CTPR are the key catalysts for Natco. Ramp-up in...

Natco Pharma reported revenue of Rs5,634mn, which was above our/consensus estimate by 42%/24%. Growth in the domestic business was driven by Oncology business coming back to an extent. But, disruptions in hospital visits continue. Revenue was up 24% QoQ and 14.4% YoY. Revenue growth was driven by growth in export formulations and API, which was largely driven by pandemic products such as Hydroxychloroquine and Oseltamavir. Higher sales from these products led to lower gross margin as these are low margin products. As demand for these products decreases, the margin will come back. The API business also witnessed higher demand for its core portfolio products leading to base business expansion which is...

NATCO Pharma (NATCO) is a R&D; focussed, vertically integrated pharmaceutical company with an experienced management team and presence across multiple speciality therapeutic segments. We upgrade our rating from Sell to Hold by valuing Natco at 26x FY22 EPS with a target of Rs.881. We expect the combination of existing products such as Chloroquine, Oseltamivir as well as the launch of Revlimid in the U.S and its focus on other regulated markets to drive overall profitability. Total revenues were up 13% YoY during the quarter led by strong performance in the export formulation and API segments. Formulation exports grew by 29% YoY, led by strong showing in...

Natco has carved out its own identity via tie-ups to tap limited but niche products pipeline including 20 Para IVs filings (FY20). As per the revised and more feasible game plan, it plans to market products via tie-ups with established players in the generic space. Till FY19, the company had filed 51 ANDAs, which includes some niche FTF opportunities. Overall, the...

Natco has carved out its own identity via tie-ups to tap limited but niche products pipeline including 20 Para IVs filings (FY19). As per the revised and more feasible game plan, it plans to market products via tie-ups with established players in the generic space. Till FY19, the company filed 51 ANDAs, which includes some niche FTF opportunities. Overall, the...

Team in the Asia Money poll 2020. Click Here Domestic formulations decline due to COVID-19 impact Financial Highlights: Natco Pharma reported revenue of Rs4548mn, which was below our/consensus estimate by 6.9%/10.1%, respectively. Revenue was down 5.7% QoQ and was flat YoY. Revenue was down because of disruption in domestic formulation sales due to Covid19 pandemic. Oncology and Hep-C business were down due to fewer hospital visits and lower diagnosis of new cases. The phenomenon should continue to affect domestic sales in FY21. Currently, there is lack of clarity about when the demand in the domestic market will normalize. Even promotion around its newly launched C&D; portfolio stands impacted and hence ramp up...

Net profit was down 34.5% YoY as other expenses included a one-time provision of 15 cr for bad debts The launch of Revlimid will be dependent on the court trial that will take place in Canada during the month of March...

Unexpected decline in Export Formulations affects performance ACCUMULATE An 18% QoQ decline in Export Formulation sales led to a disappointing revenue and earnings performance during the quarter. The decline came in entirely unexpected as we were baking in strong QoQ growth in exports, led by a bad flu season in the US this year. Overall Tamiflu prescriptions for the quarter were up by 100% YoY and Natco Pharma (NPL) garnered majority market share but the same has not translated into meaningful revenue. The company attributed the decline to channel inventory change and reiterated that there has been no pricing or market share pressure on its key limited competition assets in the US (Glatiramer...

Natco has carved out its own identity via tie-ups to tap limited but niche products pipeline including 20 Para IVs filings (FY19). As per the revised and more feasible game plan, it plans to market products via tie-ups with established players in the generic space. Till FY19, the company filed 51 ANDAs, which includes some niche FTF opportunities. Overall, the management expects one or two complex product launches in the US. New launches in CND / Oncology to drive domestic revenues Natco is a leading player in the domestic oncology segment with a product...

Natco Pharma (NATCO) is ~ INR 2000 Crore revenue Pharmaceutical company with exposure to the US generics (40%, FY19) and India Formulations (37%) segments.

Natco Pharmas (NPL) sales in 2QFY20 at Rs4,857mn is 2.7% below our estimate and 5.6% below consensus estimate. Net profit at Rs1,177mn declined 17.6% QoQ and 35.2% YoY. Net profit is below our estimate by 18.8% and below consensus estimate by 25.9%. The performance was affected by a steep decline in domestic sales. Domestic sales during the quarter stood at Rs1,220mn, which is lower 37% YoY and were affected by lower Oncology, Hep C sales and QoQ decline in C&D; sales. The C&D; decline and Hep C decline was anticipated, but the Oncology decline came as a surprise. Hep C business has been seeing structural decline and the QoQ decline in C&D; was also expected as the previous quarter had...

Natco Pharmas (NPL) sales in 2QFY20 at Rs4,857mn is 2.7% below our estimate and 5.6% below consensus estimate. Net profit at Rs1,177mn declined 17.6% QoQ and 35.2% YoY. Net profit is below our estimate by 18.8% and below consensus estimate by 25.9%. The performance was affected by a steep decline in domestic sales. Domestic sales during the quarter stood at Rs1,220mn, which is lower 37% YoY and were affected by lower Oncology, Hep C sales and QoQ decline in C&D; sales. The C&D; decline and Hep C decline was anticipated, but the Oncology decline came as a surprise. Hep C business has been seeing structural decline and the QoQ decline in C&D; was also expected as the previous quarter had...

Natco pharma's revenue/EBITDA/PAT declined 11%/16%/20% YoY in Q1FY20. The decline was attributed due to the performance of the formulation segment which de-grew 12% YoY. However, API and subsidiaries reported a growth of 7% and 21% YoY. Despite the decline in...

Natco witnessed YoY de-growth of 11% in sales in Q1FY20 due to poor sales in the US and decline in Hep-C revenue in India. EBITDA was down by 16% (YoY) while the margin down by 270bps on account of lower realisation in the US . Launched first time generics - apixaban and rivaroxaban in India (June) which are globally mega blockbuster molecules. Key drivers of revenue in FY20 will be India, Brazil and Canada which together is expected to see encouraging growth in FY20-21E....

Revenues de-grew 8.6% YoY to | 492.3 crore (I-direct estimate: | 608.2 crore) mainly due to 14.1% decline in domestic formulations to | 164 crore. Export business grew 2.1% YoY to | 241 crore (I-direct estimate: | 262.1 crore). EBITDA margins contracted 154 bps to 38.9% (I-direct estimate: 43.3%) mainly due to high employee cost. EBITDA de-grew 12.1% YoY to | 191.3 crore against I-direct estimate of | 263.5 crore. Net profit de-grew 21.1% YoY to | 143.2 crore (I-direct estimate: | 195.4 crore). Delta vis--vis...

EBITDA was down by 56% while the margin down by 1400bps on account of lower realisation in the US and inventory write-offs. Weak filing momentum as categorized by ~5 filings in FY19 with the major one being Imbruvica ($2.97 billion sale in FY19) Key drivers of revenue in FY20 will be India, Brazil and Canada which together is expected to see high growth in FY20-21E. We revise downward our revenue estimates by 14%/11% for FY20/21E while the PAT estimate by 13% in FY20 and 6% in FY21...

Natco Pharmas (NPL) revenues in 4QFY19 at Rs4,557mn were 24.7% below our estimate and 20.8% below consensus estimate. The revenues declined 18.1% QoQ and 40.6% YoY. The revenues in FY19 at Rs20,495mn showed a decline of 5%. The decline in the revenues was primarily because of pricing pressure in Copaxone generic as Teva continues to drop prices to retain majority share of the pie. EBITDA for the quarter at Rs1,483mn showed a decline of 28.8% QoQ and 61.3% YoY. EBITDA margin witnessed a decline of 1738bps YoY. EBITDA was unfavourably impacted by a US$5.5mn write-off in Tamiflu generic....

Natco has carved out its own identity via tie-ups to tap limited but niche products pipeline including 16 Para IVs and two limited competition products (FY18). As per the revised and more feasible game plan, it plans to market products via tie-ups with established players in the generic space. Till FY18, the company filed 45 ANDAs, which includes some niche FTF...