Natco Pharma Ltd. share price forecast

Natco Pharma’s (Natco) Q1FY23 performance was ahead of our estimates led by ramp-up in Revlimid.

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40x P/E on FY23E EPS + | 119 NPV for gRevlimid) Key triggers for future price performance: Expected momentum for H2FY22 is likely due to some high profile launches...

recovery in the domestic business front but registered a 27% YoY degrowth due to a higher base in Q1FY21 attributable to covid sales. The company reported strong growth in domestic business with a strong position in oncology and hepatitis-c domains. APIs registered a decline of 57% YoY and export formulations de-grew 47% YoY to 145cr. Resultantly, EBITDA margins contracted 300bps YoY to 27% and EBITDA declined 35.8% YoY to Rs.109.8cr. With approval in both Hyderabad and Vizag facilities, Revlimid is expected to be launched in the March quarter of FY22. In the agro-chemical business front, the company has launched...

What should investors do? Natco's share price has grown by ~1.6x over the past five years (from ~| 632 in July 2016 to ~| 1024 levels in July 2021). We retain our HOLD rating on this stock...

Molnupiravir for the treatment of Covid-19 patients. New launches in the Indian market are expected to drive domestic earnings with ~10 new product launches a year. The company has forayed into the agro-chemical business and invested in the Crop Health Sciences Division targeting niche products. Natco received final approval for Revlimed (Lenalidomide capsules) and...

Natco is a leading player in the domestic oncology segment with a product basket of ~33 products (FY20). Covid related disturbances and pricing pressure notwithstanding, we expect momentum in oncology segment to be decent on the back of incremental launches. New launches in cardio/diabetology segment (CND) is also expected to support overall growth. Going ahead, Natco is looking to launch 10 products a year. We...

Natco Pharma Ltd. (NPL) is a midsized pharmaceutical company with a presence across the pharma value chain. It owns eight manufacturing facilities including six formulations facilities and two API facilities. The company also has a US retail business. Natco is a leading domestic player in the oncology space. NPL's product pipeline consists of drugs,...

Natco's total revenues de-grew by 26% YoY and 56% QoQ to Rs.355cr in Q3FY21 with de-growth seen across geographies. The formulation exports (46% of revenues) de-grew by 13% YoY, while domestic formulations (27% of revenues), de-grew by 37%. The formulation exports were impacted by the lower sales of Tamiflu in the U.S on the back of weak flu season while Brazil and Canada also saw lower revenues. The market share for Copaxone as well as other formulations remains stable. The company stated that the approval for the...

Cipla: Owing to competition, we expect Cipla to garner 1-7% market share for volume-limited period and 15% thereafter. Hence, with above market share and a 70-90% price erosion assumption, our gRevlimid NPV arrives at | 41. We maintain BUY rating and arrive at a target price of | 965, including...

Q2FY21 on the back of growth in exports of formulations, APIs as well as one-offs like the Revlimid settlement income. India business continued its de-growth during the quarter with a YoY decline of 11% on account of lower oncology and Hep-C sales. The company has stated that it would look to launch the highly anticipated Revlimid in the U.S during FY22. Natco expects the launch of its agrochemical molecules by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval....

NATCO Pharma (NATCO) is a R&D; focussed, vertically integrated pharmaceutical company with an experienced management team and presence across multiple speciality therapeutic segments. We upgrade our rating from Sell to Hold by valuing Natco at 26x FY22 EPS with a target of Rs.881. We expect the combination of existing products such as Chloroquine, Oseltamivir as well as the launch of Revlimid in the U.S and its focus on other regulated markets to drive overall profitability. Total revenues were up 13% YoY during the quarter led by strong performance in the export formulation and API segments. Formulation exports grew by 29% YoY, led by strong showing in...

Natco has carved out its own identity via tie-ups to tap limited but niche products pipeline including 20 Para IVs filings (FY20). As per the revised and more feasible game plan, it plans to market products via tie-ups with established players in the generic space. Till FY19, the company had filed 51 ANDAs, which includes some niche FTF opportunities. Overall, the...

Natco has carved out its own identity via tie-ups to tap limited but niche products pipeline including 20 Para IVs filings (FY19). As per the revised and more feasible game plan, it plans to market products via tie-ups with established players in the generic space. Till FY19, the company filed 51 ANDAs, which includes some niche FTF opportunities. Overall, the...

Net profit was down 34.5% YoY as other expenses included a one-time provision of 15 cr for bad debts The launch of Revlimid will be dependent on the court trial that will take place in Canada during the month of March...

Natco has carved out its own identity via tie-ups to tap limited but niche products pipeline including 20 Para IVs filings (FY19). As per the revised and more feasible game plan, it plans to market products via tie-ups with established players in the generic space. Till FY19, the company filed 51 ANDAs, which includes some niche FTF opportunities. Overall, the management expects one or two complex product launches in the US. New launches in CND / Oncology to drive domestic revenues Natco is a leading player in the domestic oncology segment with a product...

Natco Pharma (NATCO) is ~ INR 2000 Crore revenue Pharmaceutical company with exposure to the US generics (40%, FY19) and India Formulations (37%) segments.

Natco pharma's revenue/EBITDA/PAT declined 11%/16%/20% YoY in Q1FY20. The decline was attributed due to the performance of the formulation segment which de-grew 12% YoY. However, API and subsidiaries reported a growth of 7% and 21% YoY. Despite the decline in...