Natco Pharma Ltd. share price target

Natco’s Q2FY26 result was ahead of our expectations, driven by higher supplies of gRevlimid which would fade away in H2FY26; management guides for profitability to drop to INR 2.75-3bn in H2 (vs. INR 10bn in H1).

The management maintains a long-term perspective on the business, aiming to navigate potential challenges and seize growth opportunities. We anticipate a steep revenue degrowth because of lower Revlimid sales in FY27. Focus will shift on the domestic formulations business with the anticipated launches of Semaglutide, which strengthens our case for...

The company unveiled its R&D product NRC-2694 for metastatic head and neck cancer, which is currently in phase 2. The management expects to gain more clarity after a year and a half. The company currently is doing patient recruitment...

Natco’s Q4FY25 result was driven by better traction in gRevlimid and the momentum is likely to continue for next couple of quarters.

Natco’s Q1FY25 beat was driven by higher sales of gRevlimid while its subsidiaries in Brazil and Canada (INR 1.8bn of sales) also did well.

Natco Pharma is a well-established player in the domestic formulations market with a significant market share in the domestic oncology segment. In oncology, it has brands catering to diseases including breast, bone, lung and ovarian cancer.

Natco’s Q1FY24 performance was ahead of our expectations on all fronts. gRevlimid continues to be an important growth driver though, in Q1, domestic and agrochemical biz too picked up after a long haul. Windfall from gRevlimid is invested in R&D (8-10% of sales) to build a generic pharma and agrochemical pipeline to aid growth beyond gRevlimid.

Natco Pharma’s (Natco) Q4FY23 revenue growth of 50% and margins were driven by higher sales in the export market. Company is confident of gaining further traction in the export business in the next couple of quarters.

Natco Pharma’s (Natco) Q3FY23 performance was above our estimates on revenue front. Revenue grew 14% QoQ to Rs4.9bn (I-sec:4.7bn). YoY numbers are not comparable due to one-off licensing income in Q3FY22. US business saw a healthy sequential improvement driven by strong flu season sales.

Natco Pharma’s (Natco) Q2FY23 performance was lower than our estimates on all fronts. Revenue grew 14.6% YoY (-51.2% QoQ) to Rs4.3bn – below our expectation of
Rs5.6bn.