Muthoot Finance Ltd. share price target

17 June 2020 Muthoot Finances (MUTH) 4QFY20 PAT surged 59% YoY to INR8.2b (in- line), driven by strong AUM growth and improvement in asset quality. In FY20, MUTH delivered growth of 22%/34%/53% for loans/PPoP/PAT. RoA/RoE for the year stood at 6.8%/29%. However, given the uncertain outlook for MUTHs subsidiaries and the re-rating in the stock, we maintain with TP of INR1,100. spreads were up 200bp YoY due to higher penal interest and lower cost of funds (down 80bp YoY). GS3% declined 40bp QoQ to 2.16%. The company made INR48m provisions during the quarter. Similar to 3QFY20, MUTH raised USD550m via ECBs in the quarter. Opex jumped 17% QoQ due to an accounting treatment on hedging cost for the ECBs raised. Customer footfall at 65-70% of run-rate now. Disbursements declined ~40% QoQ to INR583m.

We delved into the operating metrics of three large gold financiers Muthoot Finance (MUTH), Manappuram Finance (MGFL) and Muthoot Fincorp (MFIN) and found that MUTH has a wider reach and is a better paymaster, aiding higher productivity.

Muthoot Finance reported improvement in AUM growth to 21% YoY on consolidated basis as against 13% YoY in H1FY20. NII grew by 45% YoY (11% QoQ) led by improvement in margins; while PBT grew by 38% YoY led by higher provisions as management decided to write offs of loans. Stage III loan assets declined by 89bps QoQ to 2.54%, however NPA is never a cause of concern in gold loan. All the subsidiaries are witnessing healthy growth except home finance, accounting for 12% of the overall loan...

13 November 2019 2QFY20 PBT increased 41% YoY to INR10.5b, driven by one-off strong GNPL recoveries, which led to income of INR2b. Excluding this one-time income, PBT grew 14% YoY to INR8.5b. PAT for the quarter was INR8.6b, driven by 18% tax rate. However, MUTH has raised USD450m senior notes from the international market as well as INR4.6b from retail NCDs in Oct19 hence, loan growth has resumed in 3QFY20. Excluding the INR2b income mentioned above, yields have improved 50bp QoQ to 21.7% v/s 20bp increase in CoF to 9.5%. While cost of funds may further increase due to the external borrowings, we expect the company to largely maintain spreads at 12%. Opex grew 8% YoY to INR3.97b. Company has guided for a pick-up in opex commensurate with loan growth in 2HFY20.

Muthoot Finance's AUM growth of 16% has come in line with our expectation. Company has reported a bit subdued quarter with NII at Rs11.8bn (growth of 7% YoY) and PAT at Rs5.3bn (growth of 7.4% YoY). Stage III loan assets though increased by 50bps sequentially to 3.2%, are not a cause of concern. All the subsidiaries are witnessing healthy growth, accounting for 12% of the overall loan book. We continue to...

Stable operating performance, but liquidity remains tight Motilal Oswal values your support in the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2019 for...

Muthoot Finance has reported another stellar quarter, with AUM growth of 18% against our expectations of 15%. NII at Rs12.2bn (growth of 3% YoY) and PAT at Rs5.1bn (growth of 1% YoY) are 6% and 8% ahead of our expectations respectively. Stage III loan assets have increased by 76bps sequentially to 2.7%. All the subsidiaries are witnessing healthy traction, accounting for 12% of the overall loan book. We roll forward our...

Muthoot Finance reported tad soft Q3FY19, with AUM growth of 15% YoY as against 17% last quarter on account of tighter liquidity condition in the market. NII at Rs10.9bn (flattish YoY) and PAT at Rs4.9bn (growth of 1% YoY) are both 6% below our expectations. Stage III loan assets are flattish sequentially at 2.0%. All the subsidiaries are witnessing healthy traction, accounting for 11% of the overall loan book. We have cut our earnings estimates by 2%/4% for FY19/20 respectively. We marginally cut our...

Muthoot Finance's Q2FY19 has seen revival in momentum of its core business with AUM growth of 17% YoY as against 11% during last quarter. NII at Rs4.8bn (growth of 9% YoY) and PAT at Rs11bn (de-growth of 5% YoY) has narrowly missed our estimate of Rs4.9bn and Rs11.3bn respectively. Stage III loan assets have eased by 94bps sequentially to 1.9%. All the subsidiaries are witnessing healthy traction, accounting for 10% of the overall loan book. On the back of higher loan growth, we raise our TP to...

disbursements; yet management expects 15% AUM growth for FY19. Margins shrank ~300bp YoY to 14.1%, driven by a similar decline in yields. However, the decline was due to a high base (one-off income in 2QFY18). MUTH has recently increased yields to offset the rise in borrowing cost. Opex increased 18% YoY, largely driven by a 35% YoY increase in nonemployee expenses, largely due to advertising expenses. Asset quality improved on a sequential basis stage 3 loans declined ~100bp QoQ to 1.9%. This was against a sequential increase of 230bp in 2QFY18. As a result, credit costs declined sharply to INR25m from INR1.2b in...