The 14 reports from 5 analysts offering long term price targets
for Muthoot Finance Ltd. have an average target of 1345.20. The consensus estimate
represents an upside of 11.82%
from the last price of 1203.00.
Growth trajectory healthy; confident of beating AUM growth guidance in FY21 Despite increasing competition from banks, MUTH has witnessed robust growth in the past few months. Given the short duration as well as low ticket size of the product, the absolute interest cost in INR terms to the borrower does not increase much with higher yield; hence, players such as MUTH are able to compete with banks that offer much lower interest rates. The management further clarified growth comes regardless of gold prices in times of decline in gold prices, borrowers pledge more gold and vice-versa. Hence, despite the stated guidance of 15% YoY loan growth, management is confident...
MUTH at point of inflection ................................................................................. 5 AUM to clock 19% CAGR over FY21-23 ............................................................ 7 Pricing power to be maintained; long terms NIMs stable ................................. 14 Cost efficiencies to drive RoAs......................................................................... 18 Superior asset quality; subsidiaries closely watched ........................................ 21 Subsidiaries' asset quality a key monitorable: ........................................... 25 Robust Risk matrix and collection infra across business segments .............. 26 MUTH's high return controlled risk model ........................................................ 27...
Muthoot Finance (MFL) reported a 31.6% YoY growth in consolidated AUM, led by strong traction in gold loan AUM (up 32.3% YoY). Monthly average disbursements for the quarter were up significantly at Rs167bn compared to Rs69bn in 1QFY21. Growth in gold loans was a function of higher gold prices coupled with a higher LTV (61% for the quarter) even as the gold stock fell to 163 tonnes (down 1.2% QoQ). The company expects tonnage growth to pick up once gold price stagnates/declines. Disbursements in October have been strong as well. Overall growth in FY21 is expected to exceed the managements earlier guidance of 15%. In light of the strong growth in 2QFY21, we have increased our loan growth assumptions. Lending by subsidiaries is expected...
Muthoot Finance's (MUTH) 2QFY21 PAT increased 4% YoY to INR8.9b (4% beat). The quarter was characterized by best sequential loan growth of 14% (since FY12), stable spreads and sharp improvement in asset quality. With...
NIM moderates to sustainable level; demand outlook positive Muthoot Finance (MFL) reported NII of Rs14,445mn, up 22% YoY (down 9% QoQ) on the back of moderation in yields and slight uptick in cost of funds. Higher gold prices led to 15% growth in gold AUM even as gold holdings declined by 6% QoQ to 165 tonnes. The management reiterated its guidance of 15% gold loan growth for FY21 given the strong demand outlook. In line with management commentary and 1QFY21 performance, we have raised our loan growth assumption. HF/VF disbursements were near-nil and would be restarted only post the end of moratorium. MFI disbursements have resumed with Rs1bn being disbursed in July. Given the...
19 August 2020 Muthoot Finances (MUTH) 1QFY21 PAT increased ~60% YoY to INR8.4b (2% miss). However, according to management, the cost reduction is one-off and unlikely to sustain. As the company opened branches in May20, it witnessed more collections than disbursements. Hence, its loan book declined marginally QoQ. Standalone AUM moderated 1% QoQ to INR413b, driven by stronger collections. However, disbursements picked up toward end-1QFY21 and have sustained in 2QFY21 too. A key factor was the online disbursements (wherein the company is offering cash-backs), which have jumped 4x since the start of the lockdown. Over the past year, the company has enhanced liquidity on its Balance Sheet from INR9b in 1QFY20 to INR85 in 1QFY21. The higher liquidity weighed down on margins as borrowings have grown 38% YoY (v/s 15% YoY growth in the loan book). Management has guided to keep liquidity on the balance sheet at 10%.
Muthoot Finance (MUTH), one of our top picks, reported robust growth in profitability (60% YoY) as well AUM (22% YoY Cons.) in 4QFY20. NII grew by 30% YoY led by improvement in margins; while PBT grew by 38% YoY led by lower provisions (down 76% YoY). Lower provision as asset quality improved as well as management expects no further requirement of provisions for Covid -19 due to gold loan business model. Stage III loan assets declined by 38bps QoQ to 2.16%, however NPA is never a cause of concern in gold loan. We revise estimate upwards to 10% AUM growth for FY21 vs 5% YoY earlier as management remains confident of 15% gold loan growth in FY21. This...
Muthoot Finance (MFL) reported a robust 4QFY20 on the back of 22% YoY growth in loan assets. NII came in 3% higher than our estimate, growing by 29.5% YoY and 0.6% QoQ while operating profit and profit after tax came in 1% and 7% higher than our estimates, growing by 35.3% YoY and 59.4% YoY, respectively. Besides better yields (YoY), lower growth in opex and decline in provisioning helped report supernormal growth in profit (YoY). Spreads for the quarter stood at 14.74% compared to 15.39% in 3QFY20 and 12.75% in 4QFY19. We believe spreads are sustainable at 12-14% and the growth outlook is robust given that banks are likely to show aversion in terms of lending to the SME sector due to perceivably higher risks. We see this as an...
17 June 2020 Muthoot Finances (MUTH) 4QFY20 PAT surged 59% YoY to INR8.2b (in- line), driven by strong AUM growth and improvement in asset quality. In FY20, MUTH delivered growth of 22%/34%/53% for loans/PPoP/PAT. RoA/RoE for the year stood at 6.8%/29%. However, given the uncertain outlook for MUTHs subsidiaries and the re-rating in the stock, we maintain with TP of INR1,100. spreads were up 200bp YoY due to higher penal interest and lower cost of funds (down 80bp YoY). GS3% declined 40bp QoQ to 2.16%. The company made INR48m provisions during the quarter. Similar to 3QFY20, MUTH raised USD550m via ECBs in the quarter. Opex jumped 17% QoQ due to an accounting treatment on hedging cost for the ECBs raised. Customer footfall at 65-70% of run-rate now. Disbursements declined ~40% QoQ to INR583m.
We delved into the operating metrics of three large gold financiers Muthoot Finance (MUTH), Manappuram Finance (MGFL) and Muthoot Fincorp (MFIN) and found that MUTH has a wider reach and is a better paymaster, aiding higher productivity.
Growth intact, NII/PAT aided by exceptionally high collections Muthoot Finance (MFL) reported its 3QFY20 results with the key takeaways being: (1) Gold loan growth was robust (2) Funding situation has eased (3) Exceptional collections helped push up yield/NIM (4) Asset quality improved but home loans under stress (See detailed conference call takeaways on page 2 for significant incremental colour). Per se, on the key P&L; items, MFL posted NII growth of 45% YoY at Rs15,869mn, PPOP growth of 46% YoY at Rs11,443mn and PAT growth of 66% YoY at Rs8,034mn. We have revised our estimates for FY20/FY21/FY22 and retained Buy rating on MFL, revising our target price to Rs909 (from Rs879 earlier) and valuing...
Muthoot Finance reported improvement in AUM growth to 21% YoY on consolidated basis as against 13% YoY in H1FY20. NII grew by 45% YoY (11% QoQ) led by improvement in margins; while PBT grew by 38% YoY led by higher provisions as management decided to write offs of loans. Stage III loan assets declined by 89bps QoQ to 2.54%, however NPA is never a cause of concern in gold loan. All the subsidiaries are witnessing healthy growth except home finance, accounting for 12% of the overall loan...
Muthoot Finance (MFL) reported its 2QFY20 results with the key takeaways being: (1) Gold loan AUM growth at 9% YoY; management cites incremental funding issues (2) Spreads during the quarter expanded to 14.25%, +229 bps YoY/+255 bps QoQ, driven by higher collections/lower concessions (3) Gross stage 3 assets deteriorated by 23 bps QoQ to 3.43% (See detailed conference call takeaways on page 2 for significant incremental colour). Per se, on the key P&L; items, MFL posted NII growth of 31% YoY at Rs14,358mn, PPOP growth of 44% YoY at Rs10,738mn and PAT growth of 77% YoY at Rs8,579mn. We have revised our estimates for FY20/FY21/FY22 and retained Buy rating on MFL, revising our target price to Rs877 (from Rs874...
Muthoot Finance (MFL) reported its 2QFY20 results with the key takeaways being: (1) Gold loan AUM growth at 9% YoY; management cites incremental funding issues (2) Spreads during the quarter expanded to 14.25%, +229 bps YoY/+255 bps QoQ, driven by higher collections/lower concessions (3) Gross stage 3 assets deteriorated by 23 bps QoQ to 3.43% (See detailed conference call takeaways on page 2 for significant incremental colour). Per se, on the key P&L; items, MFL posted NII growth of 31% YoY at Rs14,358mn, PPOP growth of 44% YoY at Rs10,738mn and PAT growth of 77% YoY at Rs8,579mn. We have revised our estimates for FY20/FY21/FY22 and retained Buy rating on MFL, revising our target price to Rs877 (from Rs874...
13 November 2019 2QFY20 PBT increased 41% YoY to INR10.5b, driven by one-off strong GNPL recoveries, which led to income of INR2b. Excluding this one-time income, PBT grew 14% YoY to INR8.5b. PAT for the quarter was INR8.6b, driven by 18% tax rate. However, MUTH has raised USD450m senior notes from the international market as well as INR4.6b from retail NCDs in Oct19 hence, loan growth has resumed in 3QFY20. Excluding the INR2b income mentioned above, yields have improved 50bp QoQ to 21.7% v/s 20bp increase in CoF to 9.5%. While cost of funds may further increase due to the external borrowings, we expect the company to largely maintain spreads at 12%. Opex grew 8% YoY to INR3.97b. Company has guided for a pick-up in opex commensurate with loan growth in 2HFY20.
Muthoot Finance (MFL) reported its 1QFY20 results with the key takeaways being: (1) Gold loan AUM was up 4.7% QoQ and the 6-quarter average for QoQ growth stands at 3.8% (2) NIM continued to be volatile, declining 110 bps QoQ after expanding 113 bps QoQ in 4QFY19 (3) Operating expenses growth at 6.3% YoY has been more controlled during the quarter compared with the 23% jump during 4QFY19 (4) MFL continued with its strategy of allowing customers to fall into the Stage 3 bucket in order to retain them (See detailed conference call takeaways on page 2 for significant incremental colour). Per se, on the key P&L; items, MFL posted NII growth of 7% YoY at Rs11,858mn, PPOP growth of 8% YoY at Rs8,199mn and PAT growth of 8% YoY at...
Muthoot Finance's AUM growth of 16% has come in line with our expectation. Company has reported a bit subdued quarter with NII at Rs11.8bn (growth of 7% YoY) and PAT at Rs5.3bn (growth of 7.4% YoY). Stage III loan assets though increased by 50bps sequentially to 3.2%, are not a cause of concern. All the subsidiaries are witnessing healthy growth, accounting for 12% of the overall loan book. We continue to...
