Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. share price target

We expect MSIL to achieve volume growth of ~11% CAGR over FY18-FY20E with help of new capacity and de-bottle necking at existing plants. We also expect sizable increase in first time buyers from rural revival and government's rural focus. We estimate MSIL to record an EPS of Rs 391.7 on revenues of Rs 1,068.6bn in FY20E. In view of ~22% EPS CAGR, ~21% RoE and market share gain, we expect MSIL to trade to historical up-cycle multiple of ~25x and we have positive...

Maintain NEU with revised TP of Rs 9,432 (25x FY20E EPS). Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) posted inline revenues at Rs 212bn (+15% YoY) in 4QFY18, with 11.4% YoY vol growth and +3.6% net ASP. EBITDA (Rs 30bn, +18% YoY) with margin at 14.2% (est. 15.8%) was dragged by higher marketing spend (Auto Expo + new Swift launch) and adverse FX impact on royalty (5% Yen appreciation vs INR). APAT rose 10% to Rs. 18.8bn.

MSIL reported 4QFY18 with EBITDA margin at 14.2% (+30bps YoY, -150bps QoQ). Topline at INR 206bn (+14% YoY, +9% QoQ), in-line JMFe, was driven by 11% YoY volume growth and 3% expansion in realisation on healthy sales mix and lower discounts. Although EBITDA margin remained almost flat YoY, a steep sequential increase in other expenses due to bunching-up of multiple headwinds led to 150bps decline in margin in 4QFY18. With no material price hike taken during CY18, we expect some announcement going forward to offset commodity and exchange rate pressure. SMG production has reached an annualised rate of 230K units (93% utilisation). Rural segment is witnessing healthy 15% volume...

We see demand recovery from rural areas as model like Alto witnessed ~5.6% growth in FY18following six years of de-growth (except FY15). Coupled with rural recovery,this is a reflection of first-time buyers making a comeback. MSIL would be the biggest beneficiary of rural market recovery due to (a) its unparalleled reach,(b) large part of its dealer addition being targeted at rural markets, and (c) over 35% of volumes coming from rural markets. MSIL is targeting ~4k sales outlets (~2.8k in FY18E, implying 12.8% CAGR in FY18-20E)and ~5k workshops (~3.3k in FY18) by 2020. To support dealer viability, it is also investing in land parcels for leasing it to dealers on long-term leases. MSIL should grow much faster than the industry, led by ~13% CAGR in distribution network and continued healthy growth with existing dealers due to favorable product life cycle.

Q3FY18 EBITDA was in line with estimates. EBITDA margin at 15.8% was strong, as cost reduction offset high raw material costs and seasonal uptick in discounts. More importantly, royalty (5.3% in Q3) on models launched after Jan 2017 will be lowered (quantum unknown).

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported its Q3FY18 numbers, which were in line with our estimates on the topline & operational front. Net revenues at | 19283 crore, up 14.3% YoY, down 11.4% QoQ were line with our estimate of | 19281 crore. Topline growth was driven by 11.3% YoY volume growth & 2.3% YoY ASP growth. ASPs came in at | 439329/vehicle against our estimate of | 438476/vehicle Volumes for Q3FY18 were at 431112 units, up 11.3% YoY. Of this,...

MSIL reported 3QFY17 results, which were in line with our and consensus estimates. Reported 3Q PAT of Rs17.9bn was lower than our and street expectation due to lower other income (Rs2.4bn). Other income declined due to sudden increase in the G-Sec bond rates. Overall, results were broadly in line with our expectations at the operating level. Increased share of new models, cost reduction efforts, lower sales promotion and marketing expenses helped to increase the profits however it was partially offset by adverse commodity prices and lower other income during the quarter....

During Q3FY19, Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL) net sales grew 14.3% YoY to Rs192.8b, driven by 11.3% volume growth and a 2.6% increase in average realizations. EBITDA margins expanded by 100bps YoY to 15.8% on account of cost-reduction initiatives partially offset commodity cost inflation.

On a like to like basis (Adjusted for excise duty), for the quarter ended December 2017, Maruti Suzuki registered 14% rise in sales to Rs 19283.20 crore. OPM grew 110 basis points to 15.8% which saw OP rise 22% to Rs 3037.80 crore, on account of higher sales volume, cost reduction...

Net sales grew 14.2% YoY to INR192.8b (in-line), driven by 11.3% growth in volumes and a 2.6% increase in realizations to INR447k (est. of INR446.8k). EBITDA margin of 15.8% (est. of 15.4%) expanded 110bp YoY (-110bp QoQ), as cost-reduction initiatives partially offset commodity cost inflation. EBIT margin expanded 120bp YoY (-160bp QoQ) to 12.2% (est. of 11.8%). Lower other income and a higher tax rate restricted PAT growth to 3% YoY to ~INR17.9b (est. of INR20.3b). We have cut FY18/19E EPS by 3.8%/2.7% as we lower other income and increase the tax rate. The stock trades at 25.1x/19.7x FY19E/20E EPS. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR10,972 (~25x Mar-20 core EPS + ~INR1,592cash/share)