Lupin Ltd. share price target

Lupin's (LPC) Q2 EBITDA was 5% below estimates.

LPC received approval for gProAir HFA (Albuterol Sulfate) that offers a revenue opportunity of US$140-155m over next 8 quarters beginning from 2QFY21E. The total market size of Albuterol Sulfate Inhalation Aerosol is US$2.9bn of which 44% market share is held by ProAir. While there are 9 companies in Albuterol (including 3 AG, 6 generics), LPC and Perrigo are the only generics in gProAir and plans to launch their generics in Aug CY20. We expect LPC can potentially have 5% Rx share of the Albuterol Sulfate...

Lupin Limited is a multi-national pharmaceutical company based in Mumbai. The company specializes in branded and generic formulations, API's and advanced drug delivery systems in the area of biotechnology. The...

Outlook & Valuation: We downgrade our revenue estimates by 1% for FY21E to Rs. 168 Bn on account of downgrade in India and other key markets while we upgrade by 0.4% to Rs. 187 Bn on account of upgrade in key markets.

1QFY21 revenue and PAT was impacted due to decline of US biz (26% QoQ CC), India formulations (2% YoY) and higher effective tax rate of 60% v/s 25% QoQ. Sequential decline in US (Gx) was led by Metformin (extended release) recall, seasonality effect and normalization of sales as 4QFY20 had stocking benefits. While India formulations were impacted due to lockdown, we continue to remain positive on LPC and believe 1QFY21 was one-off...

Lupin's (LPC) Q1 revenue/EBITDA were 12%/14% below estimates.

R&D; investment dips to 10% of revenue since peak of 13.5% in FY17 Investments in R&D; was largely flattish in FY20 to Rs15.5bn, that is 10% of sales down from 11% in FY19 as part of cost optimization program. We highlight major products/pipeline spend of R&D;: Lupin received approval for Nepexto (biosimilar Enbrel) in Europe...

Outlook & Valuation: We downgrade our revenue estimates by 7.5% for FY21E to Rs 169.6 bn on accountof downgrade across regions while we introduce FY22E revenue estimates atRs 186 bn.