One97 Communications Ltd. share price target

One 97 Communications Ltd, i.e. Paytm, provides payment solutions, hotel bookings, mobile phone top-ups, gaming and mobile content and bill payment services, as well as data processing services globally. In Q2FY26, the company's consolidated revenue grew 24.2% YoY to Rs. 2,061cr, driven by higher merchant additions, strong growth of gross merchandise value...

Our positive stance on One 97 Communications (PAYTM) remains intact on the back of its significant earnings growth potential, stemming from: likely growth in payments and loan distribution margin expansion prospects from a combination of product upgrades, improving UPI mix towards chargeable products, savings initiatives and operating leverage.

One97 Communication (Paytm)’s Q2FY26 revenue was marginally ahead of the Street’s estimate, while profitability significantly beat expectations.

One 97 Communications (Paytm) reported a strong operational performance with adj. net profit of INR2.1b (vs. our estimate of INR1.3b). However, its reported PAT stood at INR210m due to a one-time impairment of INR1.9b on its loan to JV First Games.

At the forefront of technology, set to enter its next growth phase

One97 Communication (Paytm)’s Q1FY26 revenue was in line with Street estimates, while profitability significantly beat expectations.

Paytm’s business metrics continue to see a gradual recovery, led by healthy momentum in merchant business, while disbursement volumes and GMV are also growing at a steady rate.

Paytm again turned EBITDA (ex ESOP)-positive in 4Q, at Rs0.8bn (Emkay: Rs1.1bn). This was due to lower UPI incentive, which coupled with accelerated cost (Rs4.9bn) on ESOPs surrendered by MD & CEO Vijay Sharma and impairment in subs led to net loss of Rs6.1bn.

One 97 Communications (PAYTM) reported a net loss of INR5.45b (vs our estimated loss of INR1.1b), driven by higher charges toward accelerated ESOP expenses.

Paytm has successfully navigated through the regulatory challenges while retaining most of its merchant base. The company’s merchant base grew 9% YoY to 43m in 3QFY25, while the number of merchants with devices rose 10% YoY to 11.7m.

Paytm posted lower EBITDA (before ESOP) loss at Rs0.4bn vs (Emkay: Rs0.7bn), mainly due to better lending revenue (even adjusted for the higher DLG cost) and continued cost optimization measures.

One 97 Comm. (PAYTM) reported a net loss of INR2.1b, lower than our estimated loss of INR3.6b due to better revenues and lower indirect and ESOP cost.

We upgrade Paytm to BUY from Add with revised DCF-based TP of Rs1,050 (earlier Rs750), implying FY27E EV/Op Rev at 4.5x and P/BV at 4.2x. Recent NPCI approval (Oct-24) released a major regulatory overhang, which should help it rebuild the MTU base in the next 12-18M and thus cross-sell retail financial products like loans (for eg: HL), insurance, and wealth products, thereby improving revenue per user.

As part of its stated strategy to focus on its core payment/financial services business, Paytm has agreed to sell its high-margin movies and event ticketing business (subset of marketing services) to Zomato (foodtech) for an all-cash consideration of Rs20.5bn.

Paytm has agreed to sell its entertainment ticketing business to Zomato for INR20.48b in cash, which will allow Paytm to strengthen its focus on its core Payments and Financial Services Distribution business.

As part of its strategy of focusing on the dwindling core business—viz. Payments and Financial Services— post RBI action, Paytm is exploring a deal with Zomato (foodtech) to transfer its high-margin (take rate: 5-8%) movies and event ticketing business (a subset of Marketing Services); this is likely to hit Paytm’s customer traffic.