Jindal Stainless Ltd. share price target

Jindal Stainless (JDSL) reported in-line standalone operating performance in Q1FY26 supported by steady domestic volume growth. Overall volumes grew 8.3% YoY to 626kt driven by 9.5% YoY domestic volume growth across segments such as automotive, metro, white goods, lifts and elevators. Exports volume decline is moderated as new base sets in; which should improve depending upon geopolitical issues. Average realization disappointed with 1.6% QoQ decline (despite tad inch up in domestic SS prices) due to continued pressure from imports and inch up in series 400 volumes. Mgmt. reiterated its...

Revenue stood at INR102b (+8% YoY and flat QoQ), in line with our estimate. The sales volume came in line with our est. at 626KT (+8% YoY and -3% QoQ).

We initiated coverage on Jindal Stainless (JSL) on 13th May’25 at a price of INR610 for a target price of INR770. The stock has gained 20% after our report in one month and we believe there is further steam left.

Jindal Stainless (JDSL) reported largely in-line standalone operating performance in Q4FY25 led by strong volume growth. Volumes grew 13% YoY to 643kt led by strong 17% YoY domestic volume growth led by infra, metro and railways sector. Exports volume continued to remain weak and contributed ~8% to total volumes however mgmt. is seeing good traction in key quality conscious markets of EU and US in near to medium term. Average realization declined 2% QoQ as domestic pricing came under pressure post US tariff talks amid continued cheap imports from Vietnam & China. Mgmt. indicated SS...

Despite relatively stable profitability, Jindal Stainless (JSL) has underperformed its carbon steel players over the past 12 months, primarily due to the concerns on earnings growth.

JDSL maintains its 10% volume growth guidance for FY26, with an upward bias depending on conditions in key export markets like the EU. We met the management of Jindal Stainless (JDSL) to get an update on current demand in domestic and export markets amid the ongoing Tarriff war. Domestic volume growth remains strong, while JDSL is seeing better traction for export orders now Vs last two quarters, with the benefits expected to be visible in 1QFY26. JDSL maintains its 10% volume growth guidance for FY26, with an upward bias depending on the situation in key export markets such as...

Jindal Stainless (JSL)’s Q2FY24 performance lagged our estimates marginally, mainly due to lower-than-expected sales volume. Key points: 1) Exports volume was impacted by a subdued global (particularly European) market. 2) Profitability was also impacted by a transient lag between ferrochrome and chrome price movements.

Jindal Stainless’ (JSL) Q1FY24 EBITDA at INR 11.2bn (up 35% YoY) beat our estimate by 9%. Key points: 1) shipments rose 54% YoY to a record level of 548.6kte; 2) EBITDA/te at INR 20,375 was slightly ahead of our estimate; 3) domestic subsidiaries performed well while overseas subsidiaries continued to languish.

Jindal Stainless’ (JSL) Q4FY23 performance was 12% ahead of our and street estimates. Key points: 1) sales volumes were up 14% YoY (8.5% QoQ) to an all-time high of 507.6kte aided by the rolling of third-party stainless steel flats; 2) blended realisation however was down 14% YoY (-3% QoQ) tracking international raw material prices and higher volumes of the 200 series in the domestic market.

Despite tumbling 13% in past one month, the Jindal Stainless (JSL) stock has delivered 112% return in past six months. We believe the stock deserves a fresh look as the fundamentals post-merger remain robust and we see a semblance of regulatory support emerging.

Jindal Stainless’ (JSL) Q3FY23 performance was 22% ahead of our and street estimates. Key points: 1) Sales volumes were up 33% YoY (22% QoQ) to an all- time high of 330.4kte aided by the rolling of third-party stainless steel flats; 2) blended realisation however was down 13% QoQ tracking international raw material prices and higher hollow-ware sales in the domestic market.

We hosted Jindal Stainless’ (JSL) management for a roadshow in Mumbai (on Dec 19, 2022). Key takeaways: 1) Expect volume CAGR of ~20% by FY25; 2) expect FY23 EBITDA margin to sustain at Rs18,000-20,000/te.

We attended the analyst call of Jindal Stainless’ (JSL) to discuss the Q2FY23 performance.

Jindal Stainless’ (JSL) Q2FY23 performance was ahead of street estimates. Sales volumes were up 5% YoY (14% QoQ) to an all-time high of 270.4kte.