J Kumar Infraprojects Ltd. share price target

View: Weak quarter, EBITDA loss in Q1FY21E; downgrade to Accumulate JKIL reported revenue above estimates, EBITDA margin below estimates and PAT in line with estimates. JKIL posted 9.3%/ 31.4%/ 45.8% YoY de-growth in revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT to Rs8.8 bn/ Rs919 mn/ Rs311 mn in Q4FY20. We reduce our revenue estimates by 15.2%/ 7.6% for FY21E/ FY22E on account of lockdown due to covid-19. We factor EBITDA loss/ EBITDA breakeven levels in Q1FY21E/ Q2FY21E leading to reduction in EBITDA...

JKIL achieved strong performance during 3QFY20. FY20/21E Rev guidance is maintained at Rs 32/36bn. Order book is robust at 2.55x FY20E Revenue. With strong execution visibility on current order book, JKIL is well placed for re-rating. At CMP JKIL trades at 4.8x FY21E EPS. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Geographic concentration (2) Order conversion within estimated timelines. JKIL delivered 1/(10)/(4)% 3QFY20 Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat/(miss). We retain our FY20/21E Revenue estimates while revising FY20/21E APAT estimates by 0.4/(2.6)%. We maintain BUY on JKIL with a TP of Rs 269/sh (vs. Rs 276/sh earlier, 8x Mar-21E EPS).

JKIL achieved strong performance during 2QFY20. FY20/21E Rev guidance is maintained at Rs 32/36bn. Old legacy issues are all settled now. Order book is robust at 4.1x FY20E Revenue. With strong execution visibility on current order book, JKIL is well placed for re-rating. At CMP JKIL trades at 4.6x FY21E EPS. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Political instability in Maharashtra; (2) Order conversion within estimated timelines. JKIL delivered 8/14/21% 2QFY20 Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat. We maintain our FY20/21E Rev/EBIDTA estimates. Owing to lower tax rate adoption, we have increased FY20/21E APAT estimates by 1.3/6.7%. We maintain BUY on JKIL with a TP of Rs 276/sh (vs. Rs 258/sh earlier, 8x Mar-21E EPS), increase is largely driven by FY21E EPS upgrade.

JKIL delivered yet another robust quarter, driven by new order wins moving into execution. SEBI outcome is awaited post JKIL providing all documents. But this uncertainty is restraining re-rating. Order wins have been robust and JKIL is well placed for earnings led recovery. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Adverse SEBI judgment; (2) Government capex slowdown (3) Interest rate hike. We maintain BUY on JKIL with a reduced TP of Rs 322/sh (vs Rs 335/sh earlier). We value JKIL at 10x FY21E EPS. Due to strong order inflows we have increase our FY20/21E Revenue estimate by 10.9/10.9%. Lower EBIDTA margin assumption and higher interest cost has resulted in FY20/21E EPS change by 3.5/(3.8)%.

We have upgraded FY19/20E EPS by 8.6/12.1% and increase TP to Rs 336/sh (12x Dec-20E EPS) vs. Rs 284/sh earlier. JKIL delivered strong execution beat with Revenue/EBIDTA/PAT coming in 20/13/11% ahead of estimate. EBIDTA margins contracted by 77bps YoY to 16.2% (110bps miss) on account of 205bps increase in employee costs (new additions and festive bonuses paid out during 3QFY19). 9MFY19 order inflow stood at Rs 45bn ex L1 orders of Rs 20bn. Order book stands at Rs 104.7bn (59% in Metro, 9.9% Civil, 12% Flyover, 18.2% Roads) ex L1 of Rs 20bn (NHAI Dwarka Pkg 2 & Airoli Katai elevated road EPC).

guidance of Rs23bn/Rs27bn. Management expects the strong operating performance (EBITAM of 16-17%) to continue going forward. Negative sentiments on account of the SEBI issue will continue to remain an overhang on...

We maintain BUY with reduced TP of Rs 284/sh (12x Mar-20E EPS). JKIL delivered robust Revenue/PAT beat of 27/32% led by strong execution in Mumbai Metro and JNPT road project. It reported strong EBITDA margins at 17.7% (-172bps YoY, +149bps QoQ, 110bps beat). Metro Lines 2, 3 and 7 and the JNPT projects are particularly driving the revenues with 2QFY19 contribution of Rs 2.9bn and Rs 0.8bn respectively.

Led by sustained acceleration in project execution especially in Metro projects, JKIL's revenue grew by a stellar 62% YoY (-17% QoQ) to Rs5.1bn. Mumbai Metro Line-3, Metro Line-2&7 and JNPT contributed Rs1.85bn, Rs1bn and Rs0.75bn, respectively to its total quarterly revenue, while Rs400mn revenue was booked from Delhi Metro project. Further, JKIL looks forward to book Rs8bn from Metro Line-3, Rs3.5bn from JNPT and Rs3bn from Metro Line-2&7 in FY19E....

J Kumar Infraprojects (JKIL) in Q1FY19 posted revenues of Rs. 618 Cr due to strong execution of Mumbai Metro and JNPT projects. The EBITDA margins improved to 16.2% which increased 90 bps YoY in Q1FY19 with near completion of DMRC project.

We maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 415/sh (15x Mar-20E EPS) JKIL continued to demonstrate strong execution pace, posting revenue of Rs 6.2bn coming 18.3% above our estimates. With the DMRC project now practically over margins improved 293bps YoY to 16.2%. Metro Lines 2,3 and 7 and the JNPT projects are particularly driving the revenues with quarterly run rates of Rs 3.7bn and 1.3bn respectively.