JK Cement Ltd. share price target

Background: JK Cements is one of the largest cement players in North India. It manufactures grey cement, white cement and white cement-based wall putty. Currently the grey cement capacity is 10.5MTPA. Domestic white cement capacity is 0.6MTPA (second only to UltraTech). The company also manufacturers putty and has an installed capacity of 0.7MTPA. The company also has plants in Fujairah (UAE) with an installed capacity of 0.6MTPA (white cement) and 1.02MTPA (grey cement) in a 90:10 JV with the Government of Fujairah. It has also expanded its grey cement capacity by 3 MTPA through two split grinding units (1.5 MTPA...

Completion of phase-I expansion to fuel the growth With the commissioning of split grinding unit of 0.7 MT at Balasinor, the entire 4.2 MT has been commissioned this fiscal. The newly added capacities include 1 MT grinding unit (GU) each in Nimbahara and Mangrol along with 2.6 MT clinker plant and 1.5 MT GU in Aligarh and 0.7 MT GU in Gujarat (Balasinor). Hence, despite challenging year of FY21E we expect the company to clock volume CAGR of 13.2% to 12.5MT in FY22E (grey + white). The full volume benefit potential is expected to get reflected in...

JK Cement (JKCE) continued to gain market share in 2QFY21, with volume growing 26% YoY, led by ~40% capacity expansion. EBITDA grew 62% YoY to INR4.1b and was the highest ever, supported by lower cost. This in turn led to the highest ever EBITDA margin of INR1461/t. We raise our FY21E EBITDA by 16%, factoring in lower cost and target price by 15% to INR2,075/share. We reiterate our Buy rating on a 26% EPS...

We expect the company to register Revenue/EBITDA/APAT CAGR of 8%/18%/24% from FY20-FY23E driven by volume CAGR of 8% and consistent realisation improvement of 1.5% each over FY22E-23E. We value JKCL at 10.5x FY22E EV/EBITDA to arrive at TP of Rs.2150

The company has successfully commissioned 0.7 million tonne per annum grey cement grinding capacity at JK Cement works Balasinor, Gujarat and also commenced commercial despataches on 8th October,2020. This expansion takes the total grey cement capacity of the company to 14.67 million tonne

The company recorded healthy operating performance despite lower volume driven by savings in variable cost. Although Revenue/Ebitda/PAT degrew by 28%/31% and 60% on consolidated basis YoY on account of COVID-19 related lockdown, it recorded healthy EBITDA margin of 21.2% in line with our expectation

Commissioning of new capacities to fuel growth Out of total capex plan to set up new 4.2 MT capacity, JK Cement has commissioned 3.5 MT cement capacity while commercial dispatches also resumed in the quarter. Newly added capacities include 1 MT grinding unit (GU) each in Nimbahara, Mangrol along with 2.6 MT clinker plant and 1.5 MT GU in Aligarh. The company is also adding 0.7 MT GU in Gujarat (Balasinor), which will take its total capacity to 14.7 MT, a rise of 40% in capacity. Thus, despite a challenging FY21E, we expect it to clock volume CAGR of 12.6%...

Background: JK Cements is one of the largest cement players in North India. It manufactures grey cement, white cement and white cement-based wall putty. Currently the grey cement capacity is 10.5MTPA. Domestic white cement capacity is 0.6MTPA (second only to UltraTech). The company also manufacturers putty and has an installed capacity of 0.7MTPA. The company also has plants in Fujairah (UAE) with an installed capacity of 0.6MTPA (white cement) and 1.02MTPA (grey cement) in a 90:10 JV with the Government of Fujairah. It has also expanded its grey cement capacity by 3 MTPA through two split grinding units (1.5 MTPA...

2 September 2020 J K Cement (JKCE)s 1QFY21 result highlights market share gains for the company, led by ~50% capacity expansion in North India. While we raise our FY21E EPS by 10% to factor lower fixed costs, our FY22 estimates are largely unchanged. We reiterate on a 17% EPS CAGR over FY2022E, driven by capacity-led volume growth. 1QFY21 revenue/EBITDA/PAT at INR9.7b/INR2.2b/INR0.8b was down 27%/ 29%/ 49% YoY and was +2%/ +29%/ +57% against our estimate. Volumes declined for grey cement (incl. Total volumes fell 24% YoY to on a higher proportion of grey cement (90% v/s 85%) in the sales mix. Total cost per ton declined 4% YoY (flat QoQ) to INR4,245/t and was 6% beat on our estimate due to a 27% YoY fall in other expenses from lower fixed overheads. However, decline was partly offset by negative operating leverage and the consumption of higher cost petcoke inventory.

JKCE posted muted set of numbers with 27.3%/ 29.1%/ 49.5% YoY degrowth in revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT to Rs9.6 bn/ Rs2.2 bn/ Rs777 mn in Q1FY21 due to 5.1% YoY de-growth in blended realization (-1.4% QoQ) coupled with 23.5% YoY decline in blended volume to 1.77 mt. We expect 10.5%/ 81%/ 0.7% revenue/ EBITDA/ APAT CAGR over FY2022E led by 6.6%/ 13.8% blended volume growth and (1.2%)/ 1.7% blended cement realization growth in FY21E/ FY22E. We increase our revenue and APAT estimates by 9.6%/ 5.1% and 24.9%/ 8.2% for FY21E/ FY22E factoring Q1FY21 results. We broadly maintain our EBITDA margin estimates. We like JKCE because of its...