Jindal Steel Ltd. share price target

JSP reported revenue of INR135b (-1.5% YoY/ +15% QoQ) in 4QFY24, which
was above our est. of INR122b. ASP stood at INR67,099/t (flat YoY/ +4%
QoQ) vs. our est. of INR62,821/t.

Q3 results ahead on higher per unit EBITDA margin; first coil from HSM represents next milestone on Angul growth project

Jindal Steel & Power (JSPL)’s performance missed our estimates, but was in line with consensus. Key points: 1) Sales volume was aided by opportunistic export sales. 2) EBITDA/te was impacted by negative price-cost spread. 3) Angul-II capex plan until FY27 raised to INR 310bn (earlier INR240 bn).

Jindal Steel & Power’s (JSPL) Q1FY24 EBITDA of INR 26.3bn was 6% and 16% ahead of our and consensus’ estimates. Key points: 1) EBITDA/t (adj.) of INR 14,485 was ahead of our estimate of INR 12,080; 2) net debt at a 15-year low level of INR 68.1bn; 3) commissioning of 6mtpa pellet plant at Angul (in Odisha) and mining leases for Utkal C and Gare Palma IV/6 have been concluded; and 4) key facilities for Angul-II have been delayed by a quarter on average.

Jindal Steel and Power’s (JSPL) Q4FY23 EBITDA met street estimates adjusted for inventory write-offs of Rs2.5bn. Key points: 1) realisation rose 3% QoQ, partially offset by 2% QoQ rise in steel melting costs ; 2) production was impacted by operating issues at heat exchanger in DRI plant at Angul.