Jagran Prakashan Ltd. share price target

Revenues at | 270.3 crore were up 33% YoY on a depressed base. Print ad revenue was up 50% YoY (~23% below pre-Covid levels) while radio ad revenue also registered de-growth of 40% on benign base EBITDA was at | 101.4 crore while margins at 25.2%, up ~10.4 percentage...

Jagran indicated that there has been a temporary increase in newsprint prices in Q4FY21 but given the lower pagination and contracted inventory, the impact will be much lower than the price rise. However, as the business scales up some cost like employee and marketing expenses may see some...

Print ad revenue was down 24.3% YoY on account of economic slowdown coupled with the lockdown in the last week of March. Circulation was also affected due to supply chain disturbance. It witnessed a decline of 9.6% YoY. The ad spend from corporates has further declined in the current quarter (Q1FY21E-TD) and is minimal at 20% of pre-Covid level. Circulation is slowly regaining lost readership and is currently at 80% of normal levels. We believe the ad scenario will remain challenging in the near term and will only grow slowly if economic sentiments improve. We expect print ad revenues...

Limited earnings support amid weak operating environment: JAGP reported a dismal performance in 1QFY20, in line with other print companies, due to weak market conditions and the limited benefits of softening newsprint prices. Consol. EBITDA declined 14% YoY to INR1.4b (28% beat), with the margin contracting 300bp YoY to 24.2% due to (a) lower revenue (-3% YoY with print ad/circulation revenue down 3%/1%) and (b) lower-than-expected newsprint price decline. Subsequently, PAT was down...

Print suffers due to weak government, auto segment The struggles of the print ad environment were accentuated by the weak government segment, which witnessed a decline owing to election code of conduct and further due to miniscule traction post elections. Moreover, the political segment could not compensate for the loss of revenue from government category, resulting in an overall impact of 5% on print ad. Furthermore, auto, another key category that forms 15-16% of print ad, witnessed a steep decline of 30% during the quarter. On the other hand,...

JAGP's flagship daily, the Dainik Jagran is the largest read Hindi daily. Led by a recovery in ad revenue growth and benign newsprint costs, we estimate revenue/EBITDA/ PAT to grow at a CAGR of 6/15/18% over FY19-21E. Jagran Prakashans (JAGP) 4QFY19 operating performance was ahead of estimates. This was led by 9% advertising revenue growth in print business (Dainik Jagran 12%), moderate growth in newsprint (NP) prices and other opex YoY. Maintain BUY with TP of Rs 151 (+31%) @ 12x FY21E EPS (a discount of ~25% to 3/5/10 years avg PE).

Better ad environment, softer newsprint prices to aid earnings Turnaround in earnings: Bucking the downtrend of the past several quarters, JAGP bounced back with its 4QY19 earnings. Consol. EBITDA grew 15% YoY to INR1.4b (2% beat) with 130bp margin expansion to 23.3%. This was led by twin benefits of (a) healthy 8% YoY growth in consol. revenue to INR5.9b (in-line), and (b) moderating pace of RM cost increase up 12% YoY (Down 7% QoQ). Subsequently, PAT at INR665m, grew 13% YoY (11% miss) led by EBITDA growth, partly offset by high finance cost/taxes. For FY19, revenue grew 3% while...

Jagran Prakashan reported a topline of | 613.8 crore, up 2.6% YoY, largely in line with expectations. Print ad revenues improved by a mere 2.2% YoY (vs. our expectation of 3% YoY improvement) to | 364 crore while circulation revenues were also weak at | 108.0 crore (2.1% YoY decline), possibly on account of clamping down on copies on account of elevated newsprint costs. Radio revenues came in...

revenue grew a meager 3% YoY (+11% QoQ) to INR6.1b (in-line), primarily due to weak print revenues. EBITDA at INR1.3b, witnessed a steep 19% YoY decline (9% miss, mainly due to miss on revenue) impacted by 15% YoY increase in RM cost. PAT at INR666m, down 22% YoY (+58% QoQ, 15% miss), was dragged by the EBITDA decline, partly offset by higher other income. For 9MFY19, revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 1%/-14%/-19% YoY. (1) FY20 ad growth should range between 7-8%, (2) FY20 circulation revenue should witness full impact of the cover price increase, and (3) Expect 10-11% decline in FY20 newsprint cost as benefits from 10- 20% drop in newsprint price will be partly offset by 3-4% increase in circulation copies. We largely maintain our estimates; expect consol.

Revenue fell by 2% YoY in Q2FY19 primarily due to weak print advertisement revenue (down 9% YoY) impacted by shift of the festive season to Q3FY19 coupled with lower spend by central government, automobile and education sector. EBITDA declined by 28% YoY and EBITDA margin contracted sharply by 647bps YoY to 18% in Q2FY19 impacted by weak operating performance of Dainik Jagran. We expect overall advertisement revenue to grow at a CAGR of 6% over FY18-20E led by...

Jagran Prakashan reported a topline of | 553.4 crore vs. our expectation of | 578 crore. Print ad revenues fell 9.2% YoY (vs. our expectations of 1% decline) to | 306.9 crore while circulation growth came in line with our expectations at 3.9% YoY to | 110.42 crore....

revenue declined 2% YoY (-8% QoQ) to INR5.5b (6% miss), primarily due to muted print ad revenue. EBITDA declined 28% YoY (-39% QoQ) to INR1.0b (21% miss, mainly led by a 6% increase in opex), with the margin contracting 650bp YoY to 18.0% (360bp miss). Although RM cost increased by 9% YoY, it was lower than our estimate (by 3%) and also relatively benign compared to peers. Consequently, PAT declined 39% YoY (-51% QoQ) to INR421m (36% miss). Revenue was flat YoY, while EBITDA/adj. EBITDA margin shrank 310bp YoY to 22.8%.

revenue grew 2% YoY (+10% QoQ) to INR6b (in- line), driven by radio and other operating revenue; print business revenue was flat YoY. Newsprint prices increased 10% YoY; however, a 4-5% decline in circulation copies and the use of old (low-priced) inventory restricted the rise in newsprint cost to a meager 3% YoY (+10% QoQ). EBITDA, thus, grew 1% YoY (+36% QoQ) to INR1.6b (in-line), with the margin down 15bp YoY to 27.1%. Print ad revenue was flat YoY at INR3.6b, led by an improvement in ad spends across FMCG, education and e-commerce categories. Circulation revenue grew 1% YoY to INR1.1b, driven by a 9-10% rise in cover price (not fully factored), partly offset by a decline in circulation copies. On the business front, Dainik Jagrans EBITDA was up 1% YoY, while other publications reported a sharp 55% YoY drop in EBITDA. (1) 9%/10% YoY increase in Dainik Jagran/Nai Dunias cover price led to a 4-5% drop in circulation copies.

Jagran Prakashan (JPL), incorporated in 1975, has emerged as India's leading media and communication group with interests spanning across printing and publication of newspapers & magazines, Radio and Digital & Outdoor Advertising. Dainik Jagran, JPL's flagship print publication founded in 1942 was the brainchild of freedom fighter, Late Shri Puran Chandra Gupta. It operates its business of...

Excluding MBL's current value, JAGP is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 6x (FY19E), and at 11x FY19E EPS. We value JAGP at 14x December 2019E EPS (~10% discount to 3-year average), arriving at a TP of INR215. Growth levers lined up for resurgence in ad revenue As the impact of GST-related hiccups is waning, print ad revenues are expected to grow at a healthy 10% CAGR over FY18-20, on the back of recovery in ad spends led by increased launches across the FMCG and auto space. JAGP should further gain due to its leadership in recent IRS ratings, which should help command higher ad...

Dainik Jagran with its long-standing presence and focus on providing local content has enabled it to command a dominant position in the country's Hindi speaking regions. JPL's advertisement revenue excluding Radio grew at a CAGR of 8% over FY13-17 driven by better yields and increased volumes. We expect overall advertisement revenue to grow at a CAGR of 7% over FY17-20E. Given its leadership position, we expect Radio business to register a strong CAGR of...

JAGP's Q3 print ad remained soft (down ~3% YoY) given (a) continued slowdown across government ad spends (50-60% contribution), and (b) higher ad revenue base on higher contribution from Government/ political/ festive spends; both National and local ad spends were subdued.

Jagran Prakashan reported a topline of | 598.1 crore, which was lower than our expectation on account of miss in print ad revenues. Print ad revenues came in at | 356 crore, declining 3.8% YoY (vs. our expectation of 3% YoY growth). The print ad revenue performance was better than DB Corp (5.8% YoY decline) but was weaker than HMVL (+4.9% YoY growth). Radio revenues reported growth of 4.7% YoY, albeit weaker than our expectation of 10% YoY growth. The...

Jagran Prakashan Limited is a media and communications company with interests in print, digital, radio, out-of-home (OOH) and activation. The Company is engaged in the business of printing and publication of newspapers and periodicals, business of radio broadcast and all other related activities through its radio channels operating under brand name Radio City 91.1 frequency modulation (FM) in India. It is also engaged in the business of providing event management services and outdoor activities. The Company publishes approximately 12 print titles in over five different...

JAGP's Q2 consol. print ad growth (up ~2% YoY) was impacted by >10% YoY decline across local (due to GST-led slowdown) and govt ad spends (combined contribution of 50-60% to ad revenues) - this negated 10% YoY rise in national spends.