ICICI Bank Ltd. share price target

Retail loans to drive growth

Net interest income (NII) grew 9.1% YoY (+1.6% QoQ) to INR 203,706 Mn in Q3FY25. NII was 2.3% lower than our estimates.

PAT growth of 15% YoY aided by stable credit cost and PPOP growth of 15% YoY

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) delivered another steady quarter in a highly uncertain environment as credit costs stood at just 37bp, the 3Q slippage rate came in lower than 1Q, and the reported RoA was 2.36% (2.37% for 9MFY25).

Strong performance continues

ICICI Bank has once again posted an endearing performance with in-line PAT at Rs118bn/superior RoA of 2.4%, system-beating credit growth at 14% YoY, nearly stable margins at 4.25%, and steady asset quality, amid tough times. Deposit growth has moderated, but is well above the system’s at 14% YoY, exhibiting the bank’s strong liability franchisee built over the years.

ICICI Bank reported yet another steady quarter with stable return ratio amidst challenging environment. Net interest income (NII) at Rs. 20,371 crore (in line) grew by 9 y-o-y/2% q-o-q. Net interest margins (NIMs) were broadly stable, declined by 2 bps q-o-q to 4.25%.

ICICI Bank remains our top pick in the private banks space and is well positioned to deliver superior performance despite cyclicals headwinds. A steady loan growth trajectory and stable asset quality would help the bank to sustain stable return ratios.

Loan growth remains healthy; focusing on delivering profitable growth ICICIBC has delivered a robust ~17% CAGR in loans over FY22 to FY24, driven by Retail, Business Banking and SME segments while leveraging data analytics for onboarding and credit assessment.

ICICI Bank delivered a healthy quarter with stable asset quality. Net interest income (NII) grew 9.5% YoY (-11.3% QoQ) to INR 200,480 Mn in Q2FY25. NII was 1.6% higher than our estimates.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) has reported six glorious years of performance since Mr. Sandeep Bakhshi took charge as MD & CEO on 15th Oct’18. The bank has consistently beaten street estimates on one or the other metric.

ICICI Bank posted a 3% beat on PAT at Rs117bn and a superior RoA of 2.4% among peers, primarily due to healthy NII and better fees/treasury gains.

Core operating profits grew by 12% y-o-y /4% q-o-q (better than estimates) led by better loan growth, strong fee income and contained opex growth. Credit cost stayed lower at 39 bps annualised vs 44 bps q-o-q and 21 bps y-o-y resulting in steady RoA at 2.4%.

Diamond in a coal mine