Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. share price target

PAT was at | 868.9 crore, down 54.8% QoQ (estimate: | 2215.7 crore) What should investors do? HPCL's refining performance has improved QoQ and is likely to remain healthy in near term. On the marketing front, passing on higher...

HPCL's reported EBITDA missed our estimates significantly led by lower marketing gross margin (at INR3/lit, 46% est. miss), while GRM was in line at USD6.4/bbl. Refining throughput stood at 4.2mmt (+6% YoY, +68% QoQ). The company completed the expansion of its Mumbai refinery and is running at its optimal capacity as highlighted in the earnings concall. SG GRM has further improved to USD5.9/bbl in Jan'22 YTD, and the ramp up at Mumbai refinery should see near-term margin expansion. The Vizag refinery is running at >100% capacity utilization. The expansion,...

We increase our FY22-24E estimates by 5-11% to factor in to factor in higher GRMs led by 1) pickup in global economic activity and 2) gas to oil shift due to high prices even as there has been softening of marketing margins. HPCL reported lower than expected Q2 results with standalone EBITDA of Rs30.1bn...

Q1 reflects weak benchmark refining margin and impact of planned shutdowns but robust marketing margin

HPCL, the darling of deregulation due to its highest leverage to marketing, is soon going to lose its crown with the addition of 5mmtpa/2mmtpa refining capacity at Visakhapatnam/Mumbai by the end of FY22/CY21. Marketing will account for only 52% of total consolidated EBITDA in FY23E v/s 88% in FY21. Due to Visakhapatnam expansion, Rajasthan greenfield project, and marketing, consolidated debt is expected to rise to INR641b in FY23E from INR427b in FY21, 1.5x its current market capitalization. The residual upgradation project (slurry hydrocracker) at Visakhapatnam is of a...

Q4FY21 revenue grew 13.1% YoY on account of strong demand recovery observed post-lockdown relaxation in FY21. GRM stood at US$ 8.11/bbl (inventory gains of US$ 4.61/bbl) driven by higher volumes in...