Hindalco Industries Ltd. share price target

Capex programme in domestic business (Aluminium (Al) upstream and Copper) and overseas Novelis business to drive growth

Management expects domestic demand (across Asia) to remain robust and outpace the modest growth expectation of ~2-4% CAGR globally, broadly driven by renewable & electrification, infra spending, packaging and auto/EV adoption.

Hindalco's Indian operations are expected to deliver a steady performance driven by higher aluminium prices. However, Novelis's performance will remain subdued due to one-off impact of fire incident at Oswego operation. Moreover, elevated capex spending to keep debt levels high, weighing on return ratios in the near term. Thus, we maintain HOLD rating on Hindalco...

Consolidated net sales came in line at INR665b (+14% YoY and flat QoQ), driven by favorable pricing and a better product mix.

We assign a HOLD rating from BUY on the stock.

*over or under performance to benchmark index Hindalco Industries Ltd, Aditya Birla Group's flagship company in the metals segment, manufactures aluminium products and copper. Its operations include bauxite and coal...

Hindalco (HNDL)’s Q2FY26 EBITDA, at INR 89.7bn, was 5% better than our estimates driven by Novelis’ stronger performance, while HNDL’s domestic business aligned with our estimates.

Consolidated net sales stood at INR660.6b (+14% YoY and +3% QoQ) against our est. of INR637.4b, driven by favorable pricing and a better product mix.

Novelis’ (Hindalco’s 100% subsidiary) Q2FY26 (adj.) EBITDA of USD 422mn (and ~USD 448/te) was 4% better than our estimates due to lower-than-expected impact of the Oswego fire accident.

We upgrade Hindalco to BUY from Reduce, with an increased TP of Rs900 (Rs650 earlier). After the flatlined stock performance in the past 12M, we see HNDL doing well from here.

Incorporated in 1958, Hindalco Industries Ltd. is a flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group. The Co and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the production of Aluminium and Copper. It is also engaged in the manufacturing of aluminium sheet, extrusion and light gauge products for use in packaging markets like...

Despite a tough economic environment, Novelis delivered steady results. Also, to a cost reduction programme. However, Novelis faces tariff exposure on imports and is actively pursuing mitigation measures. Considering these factors, we retain our HOLD...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Hindalco (HNDL)’ Q1FY26 operating performance was 6% ahead of consensus estimates despite Novelis’ underperformance. Consol. EBITDA, at INR 80.8bn, jumped 6% YoY.

Novelis EBITDA is expected to improve on higher MJP, stable scrap prices and mitigation efforts taken by mgmt. Hindalco Industries (HNDL) delivered in-line cons operating performance aided by lower operating costs in India aluminium business and copper. Aluminium cost of production declined 3% QoQ on higher linkage coal from NCL while improving product mix at downstream business aided EBITDA/t. Mgmt. guided similar inch up in Q2 costs and consistent improvement in downstream volumes...

Novelis’ (Hindalco’s 100% subsidiary) Q1FY26 (adj.) EBITDA of USD 416mn (and ~USD 432/te) has missed consensus estimates (~USD 445–450/te), mainly on account of negative tariff impact of USD 28mn; and change in product mix.

Hindalco’s (HNDL) Q4FY25 performance was ahead of our/consensus estimates. Consolidated EBITDA rose 44% YoY to INR 96bn, mainly due to upstream aluminium (Al) division.

Novelis refrained from giving near term guidance amid uncertain tariff situation and elevated scrap pricing; although scrap availability has improved. Hindalco Industries (HNDL) Q4FY25 delivered strong cons operating performance on strong India aluminium business and Novelis. Strong LME, higher alumina prices and lower operating cost aided Indian upstream aluminium business while superior product mix benefitted downstream as volumes were stable. Mgmt. guided flattish costs for Q1 and expect...

Novelis’ Q4FY25 performance was in line with our estimates. Operating leverage benefits resulted in EBITDA/te rebounding to USD 494, sales volume rose 6% QoQ as beverage can market remains strong.

India aluminum consumption is expected to double to 11.37mt, while copper consumption is likely to grow 2.5x to 2.54mt over the next decade. Hindalco Industries (HNDL), at its annual investors' day, outlined its long-term strategy for both India business and Novelis. Out of already announced USD5bn India capex, HNDL is investing ~USD2bn and USD1.6bn in upstream businesses of aluminum and copper, respectively, while the rest would be spent on various downstream projects and coal mining. With captive coal mines...