Hindalco Industries Ltd. share price target

We recently attended Hindalco’s Investor Day 2025 where management unveiled ~$10bn expansion plan for Novelis and India, along with multiple strategic initiatives, which would help strengthen its market leadership.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock

We attended Hindalco Industries’ (HNDL) Investor Day. Long-term capacity growth aspirations in India, focus on value-added products dovetailing with domestic requirements.

HNDL and its subsidiary, Novelis, are investing ~USD10b in growth projects to significantly boost capacities. In India, HNDL is expanding its aluminum upstream (Aditya smelter 180 KT, alumina refinery 850 KT), downstream (FRP-170 KT, battery enclosures etc), and copper capacities (smelter 300 KT and recycling 50KT), with a total of USD5.2b currently under execution.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Hindalco’s (HNDL) Q3FY25 performance was ahead of our/consensus estimates. Consolidated EBITDA
rose 30% YoY to INR 76bn, mainly due to upstream aluminium (Al) division. HNDL secured 12mtpa Meenakshi coal mine, providing a significant boost to coal security.

Hindalco’s 600k-tonne strategic expansion in Bay Minette is on track to be completed in H2 CY26. The recently commissioned 250k-tonne Guthrie facility continues to ramp up automotive sheet ingot casting and the 100ktonne recycling centre in Ulsan (South Korea) has been commissioned.

3QFY25 consolidated net sales stood at INR584b (+11 YoY/flat QoQ), in line with our est. of INR595b, aided by better realization.

Novelis has indicated that its Q3FY25 EBITDA could range at USD360-370mn (-21% QoQ; -14% vs Emkay). Q3 shipments are expected to range at 900-910kt – slightly lower than our estimate of 913kt, and 945kt shipments in Q2

Hindalco delivered a strong upstream performance that is on a firm foot vs a starkly different downstream performance with bleak near-term outlook for Novelis, balancing out one another in Q2 and resulting in EBITDA beat of 9.5% at business segment level.

We maintain our BUY rating.

HNDL’s consolidated net sales stood at INR582b (+7 YoY/+2% QoQ) in2QFY25 vs. our est. of INR569b, aided by better realizations and efficiencies in India operations.

Hindalco Industries’ strategic expansion in Bay Minette is on track and the recently commissioned 250k tonne Guthrie facility is ramping up, with production having commenced in Q2.

We downgrade Hindalco to SELL from Reduce following a disappointing outlook from Novelis. We had recently initiated coverage on Hindalco indicating that the stock is pricing in all the positives and a part of that optimism was around Novelis in the lead up to its IPO, which was later called off.

We maintain our BUY rating.

Hindalco Industries’ (HNDL) Q1FY25 consol. EBITDA was 5% ahead of Street’s estimate. Record copper (Cu) EBITDA of INR 8.05bn.