Hero MotoCorp Ltd. share price target

We interacted with the management of Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) to discuss demand trends in the domestic 2W market and the outlook ahead amid ongoing geopolitical headwinds.

HMCL has ample headroom for growth in scooters (including EVs), global markets, premium motorcycles and PAM business. The company is stepping up capacities and marketing campaigns led by the improvement in rural sentiments post good monsoon/ reservoir levels, festivities and wedding season in Q3FY26; sentiments are expected to remain positive in the upcoming months. However, some challenges might moderate the industry growth post H1FY27 and need to be monitored. We estimate volume/ realization CAGR of...

We maintain a BUY rating on the stock.

Hero MotoCorp’s (HMCL) 3QFY26 PAT at INR14.4b came in slightly above our est. of INR13.6b, largely due to higher other income. Margins remained stable YoY despite the ramp-up in its EV business.

Revenue growth was a robust 21% YoY at Rs123.3bn, on healthy volume growth of 16% YoY; realizations backed up well with 4% YoY

We met with the management of Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) to discuss the demand trends in the domestic 2W market and the company’s plan to capitalize on the same. Demand for 2Ws has picked up well post-GST rate cuts, and it is expected to be sustained, according to the management.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock on reasonable valuations.

Q2FY26 revenue strong at Rs 121.3bn, up 16%/27% YoY/QoQ, on a strong volumes jump of 11%/24% to 1.69mn with healthy product mix

Hero MotoCorp’s (HMCL) 2QFY26 PAT at INR13.9b came in slightly below our est. of INR14.4b, largely due to lower other income. Margins expanded on the back of revenue growth and operational efficiencies.

Arrive at a revised TP of Rs 5,960/share (earlier from Rs 5,900/share). Hence, we maintain a BUY rating on the stock, with an 11% upside from the CMP.

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL)’s 1QFY26 PAT at INR11.2b came in above our est. of INR10.5b, led largely by higher other income. HMCL was able to retain its margins despite weak volumes due to price hikes and an improved mix.

Q1FY26 revenue at Rs 95.8bn down 5.6%/3.6 YoY/QoQ impacted by subdued volumes of 1.37mn units down 11%/1% YoY/ QoQ

EBITDA increased 4.1% YoY to Rs. 1,416cr, driven by a favourable product mix. However, margin contracted 10bps YoY to 14.2%. Notably, the EBITDA margin for the internal combustion engine (ICE) business stood at 16.1%, benefitting from an...

Hero MotoCorp’s (HMCL) 4QFY25 margins remained stable YoY and were also in line with our estimates. Reported EBITDA margin came in at 14.2%, while ICE margins stood at 16.1%, adjusted for the INR1.43b loss in EV business.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Q3 revenue grew by ~5% YoY to Rs 102bn, driven by realisation gains as volume growth stayed muted owing to fierce competition

HMCL reported a healthy Q3 with 5% revenue growth led by higher ASPs as volumes were flat. Domestic 2W market share rose by 70bps QoQ to 28.7% (declined by 120bps YoY), aided by the festive season.

Hero MotoCorp Limited (HMCL) is strategically broadening its premium product portfolio by introducing new models and variants within its established brands. This move is aimed at enhancing brand recognition and establishing powerful brands in the premium segment.