Central Depository Services (India) Ltd. share price target

CDSL has a diversified revenue stream, ~33% of the revenue is annuity and ~40% is market-linked (and uncertain). Huge opportunity for demat of ~60K unlisted public companies is now bearing fruits. At current run-rate, it will contribute ~7% to growth with negligible incremental cost. Transactions charges/KYC revenue will revive with better market conditions. New revenue streams like National Academic Depository (NAD) and e-warehouse receipts will start contributing only from 2HFY20E. We like CDSL based its (1) Annuity revenue stream, (2) Cash-rich balance sheet (Net cash of Rs 6.50bn, ~32% of Mcap), (3) Option value and (4) Unlisted opportunity. We expect CDSL revenue/EBITDA/PAT to grow at a CAGR of 14/11/8% over FY19-21E. Risks include regulatory changes, market slowdown and increase in competition. We maintain BUY on CDSL post higher revenues but lower margins in 1QFY20. Annuity revenue (+23% YoY) is driving growth led by the unlisted opportunity. Our SoTP of Rs 320 is based on 30x core FY21 earnings plus net cash.

Revenue Impresses; Profitability Down Steeply On Wage Hikes Central Depository Services (CDSL) reported a robustly improved revenue performance in 1QFY20, for the second successive quarter after a poor show in 3QFY19, when revenues dipped steeply by >10% YoY and >13% QoQ. In 1QFY20, revenue rose strongly by 28.2% YoY and by 14.6% QoQ to Rs584mn, its highest-ever quarterly revenue. Depository Services revenue saw a healthy recovery after two successive quarters of YoY decline, with segment revenue up 11.4% YoY to Rs405mn. On the other hand, the Data Processing segment clocked a substantial 86.6% YoY revenue growth. CDSL's net beneficial owner (BO) accounts touched 17.9mn (17.3mn in 4QFY19),...

CDSL has a diversified revenue stream, ~35% of the revenue is of annuity nature and ~47% is market linked (Transaction, IPO/corporate action and KYC). Big opportunity is emerging with the demat of ~60K unlisted public companies. The opportunity size is ~Rs 0.12bn per year (taking ~50% share) with negligible incremental cost. CVL KYC issues are behind and growth with resume with revised e-KYC regulations. New revenue streams like National Academic Depository (NAD) and e-warehouse receipts will start contributing meaningfully in 2HFY20E. We like CDSL based its (1) Annuity revenue stream, (2) Cash rich balance sheet (Net cash of Rs 6.53bn, ~28% of Mcap), (3) Option value and (4) Unlisted opportunity. We expect CDSL revenue/EBITDA/PAT to grow at a CAGR of 11/14/10% over FY19-21E. Risks include regulatory changes, market slowdown and increase in competition. We maintain BUY on CDSL based on better than expected 4QFY19. Annuity revenue stream is driving growth led by un-listed opportunity. We value CDSL on SoTP basis by assigned 30x multiple to core FY-21 earnings and adding net cash to arrive at a TP of Rs 335.

Revenue growth impacted due to market headwinds leading to negative operating leverage: For 3QFY19, CDSL's revenue declined 10% YoY to INR462mn. This was majorly due to reduction in IPO/ Corporate Action charges (-52% YoY) followed by Transaction charges (-25%), Online Data charges (-8%) and other charges (-8%). IPO revenue got impacted due to reduction in number of IPOs given weak market sentiment. Revenue from Transaction charges reduced due to poor delivery based volume during Q3FY19. However, we expect revenues to revive in 2HFY20E following...

We maintain our BUY rating, have assigned 30x multiple to core Dec-20 earnings and added back net cash to arrive at a TP of Rs 330 (~46% upside). CDSL posted disappointing 3QFY19, both revenue and margin performance were lower than expectations. Revenue was down 13.1% QoQ to Rs 462mn (vs est. of Rs 549mn). Drop was led by 7.4/30% QoQ drop in Transaction/Online-data-charges revenue (CVL KYC). Discontinuation of OTP based Aadhaar e-KYC has led to lower volumes from the on-line channel.

Central Depository Services (CDSL) is one of two depositories in India and the only one to be listed. The BSE initially promoted CDSL,but subsequently diluted its stake to leading banks, which became CDSL's 'Sponsors'.

We maintain our BUY rating, have assigned 33x multiple to core Sep-20 earnings and added back net cash to arrive at a TP of Rs 380 (~59% upside form CMP). CDSL posted robust 2QFY19, both revenue and margin performance was better than expectation. Revenue was up 17.4% QoQ to Rs 531mn (vs est. of Rs 433mn). Growth was led by 6.2/48.5% QoQ rise in Transaction/Online data charges revenue (MF KYC). Discontinuation of OTP based Aadhaar KYC for MFs led to surge in demand for CVL KYC.

Central Depository Services (CDSL) 1QFY19 operating performance was in line, but lower other income weigh on PAT. Owing to the volatile capital markets, key segments (except data processing) grew at subdued pace. Data...

We maintain our BUY rating, have assigned 33x multiple to core earnings and added back net cash to arrive at a TP of Rs 370 (39% upside from CMP). CDSL posted poor 1QFY19 with fall in revenue but margin was better than expectation. Revenue was down 12.5% QoQ to Rs 453mn (lower than our est of Rs 505mn). Drop was led by 21.3/27.3/18.2% QoQ drop in Transaction/IPO & corporate action/online data charges respectively offset by 6.7% QoQ rise in annual issuer charges. Margin fall was lower than expected, down 24bps QoQ to 56.8% vs our estimate of 55.4%. CDSL continued to gain BO market share (~47% in 1QFY19, +48bps QoQ).

Revenue In-line; Lower Other Income Reduces PAT Central Depository Services (CDSL) has reported an in-line revenue performance in 1QFY19, which rose 11.7% YoY (-12.5% QoQ) to Rs453mn (1.5% above our estimate). Key business segments grew at a subdued pace with a marked slowdown from growth recorded in the previous quarter. Transaction Charges revenue rose by 7% YoY (42% YoY in 4QFY18), IPO/ Corporate Action Charges revenue rose by 8.6% YoY (70.8% YoY in 4QFY18) and KYC/Online Data Charges rose by 11.2% YoY (59.9% YoY in 4QFY18). Segment-wise, Depository Services revenue rose by 18.5% YoY to Rs352mn. On the flip side, Data Processing revenue declined by...

Central Depository Services (India) (CDSL) stable revenue base and fixed cost model enables the company to register strong margins in line with revenue growth. Repeat business in multiple offerings across DP's, corporate, capital market intermediaries, insurance companies and others has enabled the company to clock ~21% CAGR top-line growth over FY14-FY18, while cost (employee) increased by only 14% during the same period. High FCF generation, stable dividend policy (~40%) and a strong balance sheet (net cash of Rs5.5bn, at end of FY18) provide further support. Stable growth in...

We assign a P/E multiple of 33x to core earnings and add net cash to arrive at a TP of Rs 415 (40% upside from CMP). At 25/21x FY19/20E earnings we see value and maintain our BUY rating. CDSL posted a muted 4QFY18 with flat revenue and lower margins. Revenue was up 0.8% QoQ to Rs 518mn (in-line with our est of Rs 518mn). Growth was led by 5.8/7.7% QoQ growth in Annual issuer charges/online data charges (KYC) offset by 3.5/2.8% fall in transaction revenue/IPO & corporate action charges respectively.

Central Depository Services (CDSL) reported an in-line financial performance in 4QFY18. The company's revenue rose by a healthy 35.1% YoY to touch Rs518mn (17.5% above our estimate). This was led by robust growth in key verticals, including Transaction Charges (+42% YoY), IPO/ Corporate Action Charges (+70.8%) and KYC/Online Data Charges (+59.9%). On a segmentwise basis, Depository Services revenue rose by 31.6% YoY to touch Rs390mn. On the other hand, Data Processing revenue rose by a strong 39.2% YoY to touch Rs116mn. Impressive revenue growth was attributable to good health of capital markets, a strong primary market with new issuers coming in at a good pace and strong demat account openings. CDSL's strong focus on marketing and increasing DPs continues to drive revenue, with total net beneficial...

In FY18, CDSL reported a strong growth in consolidated net sales of 31% YoY, driven by high growth in IPO/corporate action charges, transaction charges and KYC segment. Consolidated PAT came in at INR 1bn (+20% YoY), in-line with our estimates. Fixed cost model driven primarily by staff and IT costs enables the company to register strong margins in tandem with revenue growth. High FCF generation (FCF yield c.4%+), stable dividend policy (35% payout) and a strong balance sheet (net cash INR 5.5bn+) provide further support. SEBI panel's likely recommendation to allow new entrants in depository space may increase the competition intensity. We forecast a c.20% EPS CAGR over FY18-FY20E and...

CDSL is a story of two halves an existing granular revenue stream and a growing optionality from digitization. A deeper look at CDSLs revenue reveals even the sub heads (transaction income, IPO corporate charges) emanate from diverse set of small fees that CDSL charges.

We assign a P/E multiple of 33x to core earnings and add net cash to arrive at a TP of Rs 425 (47% upside from CMP). At 24/21x FY19/20E earnings, value is imminent and merits a BUY. Central Depository Services Ltd (CDSL) is one of two depositories in India and the only one to be listed. Given the high risk of data pilferage, we believe there is limited scope for any other depository to be set up. CDSL is a gem of a business that any investor constructive on India in the long term must own. It has a robust business model, with (1) One-third of revenues being annuity (issuer charges), (2) Embedded non-linearity playing out (1,502 bps margin expansion over FY13-17), (3) Low capex requirement (~3% of revenue), (4) Excellent cash generation (OCF ~63% of EBITDA) and (5) Huge option value from new areas like digitisation of academic records and insurance policies, e-warehouse receipts and GST Suvidha centres.

Processing surged by a robust 58.1% YoY to Rs109mn. This impressive performance on revenue front can be attributed to good health of capital markets, with the key indices hitting all-time highs, robust primary market with new issuers coming in at a rapid rate and strong number of new demat account openings. Notably, its EBITDA margin expanded by a whopping 785bps YoY to 61.1%, which in absolute terms grew by 56.2% YoY to Rs312mn owing to operating leverage and effective cost control measures. However, its reported PAT rose at a slower pace than...

Central Depository Services (CDSL) has reported a strong set of operational numbers in 2QFY18. Its revenue rose by a healthy 22.4% YoY to Rs472mn led by 18.2% YoY growth in Depository segment. On the other hand, Data Processing revenue rose by a strong 35.2% YoY. The strong revenue growth was aided by good health of capital markets with the key indices hitting all-time highs and strong new MF account openings. Key growth drivers in terms of businesses were Transaction charges (+26% YoY), IPO/Corporate Action charges (+68% YoY) and KYC/Online Data Charges (+41% YoY). Owing to operating leverage and cost control, CDSL's EBITDA margin powered ahead by 221bps YoY to 63.5%, and by 26.8% YoY in absolute terms to Rs300mn....