Havells India Ltd. share price target

Havells' Q4FY19 topline growth at ~9% YoY (I-direct estimate: 15%) was largely impacted by liquidity crunch, extended winters and impending general elections. Lloyd business revenue declined ~9% YoY to | 532 crore while lighting and ECD business growth were subdued at 7% and 9%, respectively. Lower demand coupled with intense competition has restricted the company from passing on inflationary pressure, resulting in a slight contraction in gross margin. Also, higher fixed cost dented EBITDA margin (down ~240 bps) higher than our estimate. Though the management guided...

We lower our earning estimates by 11% & 8% for FY20E & FY21E to factor in near impact on earnings. Despite this, we expect earnings to grow by 23% CAGR over FY19-21E. We roll forward to FY21E and value HAVL at 36x (historical average) given its high brand recall, strong retail presence and strong balance...

consumption and liquidity crunch impacted business with the situation continuing into April-May. Overhang of the recently concluded elections also impacted revenue. 4QFY19 revenue growth stood at 9%, while EBITDA margin was down 240bp to 11.7%. Adj. PAT declined 12% YoY to INR2.1b. FY19 marked by strong revenue growth, but challenges on margin front: Overall, FY19 was marked by robust revenue growth; overall revenues grew 23.6%, with Havells (ex-Lloyd) at 22% (4QFY19: 14%). The company surpassed INR100b revenue this year. Segment wise cables grew 24%,...

Below estimate Q4; investments to yield results from FY20; maintain Buy The Q4FY19 results were lower than our estimates, as lower volume across segments resulted in lower EBIDTA and PAT. Lloyds's volumes were flat in FY19. The investments of the last couple of years, related to manufacturing, brand, and people, should start yielding results from FY20...

Strong Performance Across Segments But Margins Impacted: Havells' revenue exceeded our expectations by 11%. Havells' core business (Ex. Lloyd) has shown a growth of 29% majorly driven by switchgear (21%), cables (31%) and consumer durable segment (35%).

Excluding Lloyd, HAVL's average revenue growth for last 3 quarters was 27%, led by market share gains, retail penetration and premiumisation. However, EBITDA margin declined by 160bps YoY to 11.7% due to increase...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Havells' core business and Lloyd recorded strong topline growth of 29% and 22% YoY, respectively, leading to total topline growth of 28% YoY in Q3FY19. Strong festive demand in the appliances category coupled with market share gain in the water heater segment drove the overall ECD performances while government led initiatives into infrastructure and electrification drove the performance of cable and switchgear segment. Under Lloyd, while the AC segment...

We value based on 36x P/E on Dec-20EPS with TP of Rs 738 (earlier 713). Havells reported a stellar quarter with 28% revenue growth (est. 13%; 14% in 3QFY18) driven by festive season benefits (durables), govts electrification drive and acceleration in infra projects. EBITDAM was under pressure (2nd consecutive qtr) owing to volatile commodity prices (cost inflation has reversed now). ECD segment witnessed the highest crack in margins (-414bps) owing to focus on new launches and market share gains in festive season. EBITDA/APAT grew by 12/9% (exp. 13/14%).

Once again, Havells surprised on the positive side, reporting strong revenue growth, driven by the ECD, Cables & Wires, and Lighting & Fixture segments. The Lloyd and Switchgear segments were also not far behind and have reported healthy growth rates. The volatility in commodity prices, currency headwinds, and time lag in passing on the cost increases continue to impact margins negatively. Strong revenue growth was...

22 January 2019 YoY to 37.5%. EBITDA of INR2.95b (+12.3% YoY) was 6.2% ahead of our estimate. Ad spend increased to INR0.9b (3.6% of sales v/s 4% in 3QFY18), while employee costs rose 30% YoY to INR2.1b. Adj. PAT grew 18.3% YoY to INR1.9b, 5.8% above our estimate.