Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. share price target

Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) have announced the final gas pipeline tariff for Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL). The upward revision in tariffs was above our estimates. Pipeline tariffs increased 28% from | 26.58/mmbtu (~| 1.1/scm) to | 34/mmbtu (~| 1.4/scm) for the main high pressure pipeline against our expectation of 20% increase in tariffs. Subsequently, we increase our tariff estimates by ~7.5% from | 1.35/scm to | 1.45/scm from H2FY19 onwards. The tariff revision has led to an increase in FY19E EPS by 6.2% and FY20E EPS by 11%....

Gujarat State Petronet's (GSPL) Q1FY19 revenue and EBITDA were a beat to our estimates, while PAT was a miss due to higher than expected interest cost and effective tax rate. Revenue increased 32% YoY to Rs3.9bn (IDBIest Rs3.6bn) led by strong volume growth 35.7% YoY to 36.5mmscmd while net implied tariff declined marginally 1.3%...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) reported its Q1FY19 result, which were above our estimates on the topline front mainly on account of higher than estimated volumes. Revenues increased 32% YoY to | 391.2 crore, above our estimate of | 337.7 crore Volumes at 36.5 mmscmd came in above our estimate at | 32.5 mmscmd as its largest industrial consumer continued its offtake during the quarter. Transmission tariffs at | 1.14/scm came in line...

Gas transmission volumes increased 46.1% YoY to 34.5 mmscmd (our estimate: 32.5 mmscmd). Transmission tariffs at | 1.13/scm came in line with our estimates. EBITDA increased 43.7% YoY to | 289.2 crore and came in below our estimate of | 300.6 crore due to higher other expenses of | 50.6 crore (our estimate: | 23.9 crore) On account of the same, profitability at | 157.4 crore increased 24% YoY and came in below our estimates of | 176.1 crore. The board has recommended a dividend of | 1.75/ share...

Gujarat State Petronet's (GSPL) Q4FY18 revenue and EBITDA came in-line with our expectation, while PAT was a miss due to higher than expected tax rate. Revenue increased 43.2% YoY to Rs3.5 bn mainly led by strong volume growth while implied tariff remained flattish. Volume grew 45.9% YoY to 34.1mmscmd while pipeline tariff remained flattish at Rs1.12/scm. We are keeping our estimates largely unchanged. We are factoring almost flattish growth in revenue/EBITDA/PAT in FY20 vs FY18 as we expect the company's volume to decline in FY19 to 30mmscmd (31.5mmscmd in FY18) due to start of...

Gujarat State Petronet's (GSPL) board has approved the acquisition of up to 28.4% stake in Gujarat Gas from GSPC. The transaction will involve acquisition of 3.9 crore shares and be a related party transaction between two government companies, thus, requiring no regulatory approval. Currently, GSPL has a 25.8% stake in Gujarat Gas. The new acquisition will take the total stake to 54.1% making it a holding company of Gujarat Gas. The deal will be a cash transaction but the final cost is yet to be decided. In our opinion, the deal is likely to happen around the current...

Since 1QFY18, GUJS has been reporting steady growth in gas transmission volumes, led primarily by higher consumption in refinery/petrochem, power and CGD sectors. Going forward also, the company expects demand from the power sector to be strong for about six months in a year. The company suggests that current transmission volumes stand at ~36mmscmd, up 7.5% QoQ. It has further guided that as summer power demand catches up, transmission volumes could increase to 40mmscmd. However, as and when RIL commissions all its gasifiers, there could be a loss of ~5mmscmd in transmission volumes

Gas volumes rose 28% YoY/5% QoQ on high off-take by RIL's refinery (~10 mmscmd) with ROGC# project starting in December 2017 and petcoke gasification project set to be fully ramped up in FY19.

Gas transmission volumes increased 27.7% YoY to 33.5 mmscmd (our estimate: 32.5 mmscmd). Transmission tariffs at | 1.12/scm came in largely in line with our estimates at | 1.15/scm. EBITDA increased 30.6% YoY to | 297.1 crore and came in below our estimate of | 308.2 crore due to higher other expenses Lower tax rate of 30% (our estimate: 33%) supported profitability at | 181.6 crore, which came in line with our estimates...

Gujarat State Petronet's (GSPL) Q3FY18 result was completely in line with our expectation where volume was a tad higher than our estimate. Revenue increased 31.3% YoY to Rs3.5 bn led by strong volume growth and flattish implied tariff. Volume grew 27.7% YoY to 33.5mmscmd due to incremental demand from RIL for its new projects while tariff increased 2.6% YoY to Rs1.12/scm. We are keeping our estimates unchanged and introducing FY20 numbers and we expect its EBITDA/PAT to see a CAGR of 9%/13% during FY17-20E.We roll over our valuation to FY20 gives a new TP of Rs212 from Rs204. Maintain HOLD....