Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd. share price target

US growth from new launches to offset base business price erosion US generics (~44% of total revenues) grew at ~15% CAGR over FY12-17. Total USFDA filings as on date are 185. So far, the company has received approval for 118. Out of 67 pending ANDAs, ~27 are Para IV applications. Key therapies in the US, going forward, will be oncology dermatology and respiratory. The company expects to file 20-25 ANDAs and launch 1015 ANDAs annually in the US. We expect US sales to remain subdued in FY17-19E to | 3284 (ex-gZetia CAGR ~5% in constant currency), mainly due to higher base and pricing pressure in the US....

Q1FY18 revenues increased by 20% YoY lower than our forecast by 7.8%. EBITDA margin of 24.4% were better than our estimates of 21.5%, mainly on the back of better gross margins. However, PAT of Rs3.3bn, +47% YoY, was a beat by 9.5%. For FY18, Glenmark has guided gZetia becoming a USD170-180mn franchise, however, remains confident for a 8-10% YoY growth in revenue in FY18E with EBITDA margins of 22%. For the US region, aims a flat or marginally better revenues in FY18E and signing atleast one out-licensing deal to help reduce debt. Key Highlights and Investment Rationale...

Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 1,035 (18x Jun-19E and Rs 135/sh for pipeline). Glenmarks (GNP) 1QFY18 performance was in stark contrast to that in the previous quarter. The overall top-line grew 23% YoY, largely on the back of ~50% growth in the US business (gZetia impact). Revenue was also surprisingly boosted by a 15% growth in the India business, despite the GST disruption in the domestic market. The EBITDA margin came in at 23.3%, in line with estimates, up 640bps YoY. PAT grew ~44% YoY to ~Rs 3.2bn.

New product launches to drive growth amid poor Q4 show Glenmark is an India-based pharmaceutical company with commercial presence in more than 60 countries across the globe. The company derives 63% of total...

Glenmark's (GNP) Q4 PAT was below estimates due to significant miss in US sales (USD 150 mn vs. estimated USD 193 mn). The sales miss was led by lower gZetia sales (~USD 50 mn vs. est. ~USD 80 mn) and ~15% price erosion in US base business.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues grew 8% YoY to | 2457 crore (I-direct estimate: | 3043 crore) mainly due to 53.5% YoY growth in the US to | 1000 crore (Idirect estimate: | 1534 crore) led by gZetia Exclusivity. Miss vis--vis I-direct estimate was due to lower US traction, way below estimates EBITDA margins increased 481 bps YoY to 18.1% (I-direct estimate: 35.2%). The YoY increase is mainly attributable to lower base margins in Q4FY16. EBITDA increased 46% YoY to | 444 crore Adjusted net profit increased 23.5% YoY to | 184 crore but came in...

Weak Quarter; Higher Price Erosion in US Remains an Overhang Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GNP) has delivered a weak performance in 4QFY17 due to lowerthan-expected US sales at US$149mn (vs. our estimate of US$190mn). Despite gZetia's 180days exclusivity, sales grew by just 9% YoY to Rs24.3bn owing to~15% price erosion in US base business, lower gZetia sales (~US$ 50mn vs. our estimate of ~US$ 95mn), and weak sales in India and Europe. EBITDA margin declined by 1,210bps QoQ on lower gZetia sales, ~Rs740mn forex loss and higher R&D; spend at 14.8% of sales from 10.9% in Q3FY17. Adjusting for forex loss, margin stood at 21% (vs. reported 18%), while adj. PAT stood at Rs5bn on lower tax (deferred tax on lower gZetia sales and MAT credit). Though the Management looks forward to improvement in US business in FY18 owing to new launches in dermatology segment, but it expects price...

Glenmark's Q4FY17 results were disappointing, revenues and PAT was below our expectation by 11.5% and 7.3% respectively, led by lower than expected revenues from all geographies except US and India. While launch of gZetia was for the full quarter, poor performance of the molecule led to pain at the EBITDA margins, however, extraordinary income cushioned the PAT. Adj PAT was below our estimates by 52%. Revenue increased 6.5% YoY to Rs24.6 bn, EBITDA grew 47.1% YoY to Rs4.4 bn while Adj PAT rose 96.4% YoY to Rs2.8 bn and reported PAT rose 278% YoY to Rs5.4 bn for Q4FY17. For FY18, Glenmark has guided a slower than expected pick up in gZetia, however, remains...

Glenmarks (GNP) 4QFY17 performance was disappointing on all counts. While overall top line numbers were in line with expectations, sales from the US segment and gZetia were not. The EBITDA margin came in at 20.5%, well below estimates.