Mahanagar Gas Ltd. share price target

MGL reported volume growth of 3.8% YoY on a lower base. CNG volume grew 2.2% YoY to 2 mmscmd in line with estimate. On the PNG front, volumes grew 7.9% YoY to 0.9 mmscmd. While industrial and domestic PNG segments reported growth of 21.7% YoY, 8.9% YoY, commercial PNG volumes were still down 11.6% YoY. Given the cost economics of natural gas over other alternative fuels in conjunction with rising pollution concerns, achieving higher growth over the long term should not be a concern. The management said that CNG sales volume dipped up to 25-30% in the current...

MGL is one of the largest city gas companies in India

Q3FY21 revenue fell 11.2% YoY to Rs. 727cr (+32.5% QoQ) owing to drop in volumes by 9.2% YoY to ~254.9 Standard Cubic Meter (SCMmn). Blended volume stood at 2.77MMSCMD as demand for CNG strengthened post lockdown to 1.88MMSCMD - 62% of total volume (vs. 1.28MMSCMD in Q2FY21) while PNG volume stood at ~0.51MMSCMD in Q3FY21. MGL witnessed significant volume recovery trend with an increase of 33.6% in overall sales volume vs. Q2FY21. CNG and PNG Industry/ Commercial volumes down 15.3% /9.0% YoY, respectively, with commercial activities not resuming full-fledged whereas Domestic PNG rose 23.5% YoY with increasing *over or under performance to benchmark index...

MGL reported volume de-growth of 9.2% YoY as demand is yet to fully recover. CNG volume de-grew 15.3% YoY (our estimate: 5.6%) to 1.9 mmscmd. On the PNG front, volumes grew 7.2% YoY to 0.9 mmscmd driven by robust domestic PNG demand. While industrial and domestic PNG segments reported growth of 6.1% YoY and 23.5% YoY, commercial PNG volumes were still down 27.7% YoY. Given the cost economics of natural gas over other alternative fuels in conjunction with rising pollution concerns having higher growth rate over the long term should not be a concern. The...

Revenue for Q2FY21 dropped 36.3% YoY to Rs. 549cr primarily as volumes shrank 30.9% YoY to 190.7 Standard Cubic Meter (SCMmn). CNG and PNG Industry/ Commercial volumes declined by 42.0%/19.9% YoY, respectively, as lockdown and transport restrictions extended whereas Domestic PNG increased 21.6% YoY. Despite the impact of COVID-19 during the quarter, MGL achieved a growth in volumes QoQ. Blended volume stood at 2.07SCMmn, led by a strong demand recovery in CNG segment post lockdown (1.28SCMmn - 62% of total volume). Witnessed recovery at 90-95% of pre-COVID levels in Nov'20 as commercial activities gradually kicked off. PNG...

MGL reiterates its position as a trusted natural gas supplier, it remains steadfast to further expand and extend green footprints far and wide, taking strides to responsibly fuel India. During the Pandemic MGL strived to ensure that all customers who need natural gas have an uninterrupted access to the same and they have proactively geared itself to sustain its business in this situation and is firmly on the way to recovery towards PreCovid levels. While there is ample scope for growing the business of MGL organically in its currently authorized GA's, they are continuously looking out for inorganic growth opportunities. Favourable regulatory...

Considering government's expansion plan in CNG sector and company's growth in Compressed Gas Distribution (CGD), we are positive on company's outlook, and reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with a...

10 August 2020 CNG volumes were down 78% YoY to 0.48mmscmd. PNG domestic was higher by 7% YoY to 0.43mmscmd. PNG I/C was down 49% YoY to 0.20mmscmd. At the end of 1QFY21, the company had ~256 CNG stations (~184 belong to OMCs). Raigad had ~14 CNG stations, and the minimum work program (MWP) is fulfilled at Raigad. Opex increased ~44% YoY to INR5.8/scm (+15% QoQ). Thus, EBITDA was 5% higher than est. at INR0.8b (-71% YoY; -67% QoQ). Reported PAT stood at INR0.45b (-73% YoY, but +9% vs.

Mahanagar Gas's (MAHGL) Q1FY21 PAT underperformed at Rs 0.45bn (73% YoY).

The CNG segment (down 77.8% YoY and 75.7% QoQ) due no movement of people and vehicles during the lockdown The domestic PNG segment reported flattish growth sequentially and up 7.1% YoY which was offset by a de-growth of 47% QoQ and 49.3% YoY in Industrial/commercial PNG segment. Overall PNG segment degrew 21.2% YoY and 21.3% QoQdomestic PNG segment increased which was offset by decline in industrial and commercial volumes. Gross margins have gone up by 573 bps QoQ and 821.4 bps YoY, due to low gas cost and spot prices. MGL got the advantage of relatively...