Mahanagar Gas Ltd. share price target

Mahanagar Gas's (MAHGL) Q1FY20 PAT was well above estimates at Rs 1.7bn (+20% YoY).

MGL is an excellent cash annuity model with decent dividend yield. Promoter offloading some stake has weighed down on the valuations, however, the uncertainty of around this is over by BG Asia selling off their remaining 10 pc stake (complete exit) as markets have reacted positively to the news. We structurally like MGL as there is improvement in their operational performance. MGL has lesser GA's than its peers but their profitability is higher than its peers. With volume outlook looking stable and spreads likely to sustain, outlook gets better. Based on DCF valuation,...

Volume traction with strong spreads. Maintain Accumulate. MGL's Q4FY19 results were below our estimates on all parameters. The CNG growth on a sequential basis was impacted by the BEST strike. The growth in the PNG segmentdomestic was flat and industrial was low was adversely affected, due to competing fuels. We expect the industrial and commercial segment to revive as crude oil prices rise. With the ongoing capital expenditure, MGL is trying to increase its footprint, especially in the Raigad region. The green fuel push by the government will entail easy...

MGL did not win any new GAs in either of the recently concluded ninth or tenth rounds of CGD biddings. This factor may weigh on its long-term growth. We believe that the company will continue to enjoy pricing power and be able to maintain its per unit margin due to a loyal customer base of CNG and commercial customers (who together comprise ~80% of total sales mix) that are less price sensitive than industrial customers. Moreover, we do not foresee any significant regulatory adversity in its CGD business either through a change in gas allocation or capping returns. We maintain BUY on MGL after an in-line performance in 4QFY19. Our target is Rs 1,113/sh (19x Mar-21E standalone EPS).

The quarter reported healthy volume growth rate of 7.4%, higher than MGL's average growth rate of 6-6.5% witnessed over last few years. The higher growth was on account of high CNG volumes at 2.2 mmscmd (increase 6.9% YoY) due to higher usage of public transportation and higher fuel consumption per vehicle. Also, on the PNG front, volumes continued their growth momentum of 9% YoY to 0.8 mmscmd. MGL plans to aggressively set up CNG stations (current: 236 stations) with 20-25 additions per annum. On PNG front too, MGL has plans run rate of more than 1 lakh PNG...

increased gas penetration from rising vehicle and PNG penetration. We continue to like MGL's business given their dominating share in the growing markets of Mumbai and suburbs. Reiterate BUY....

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Mahanagar Gas (MGL) reported its Q3FY19 results that were above our estimates driven by higher volumes as well as gross margins per...

Our target is Rs 1,125/sh (19x Dec-20E standalone EPS). Maintain BUY. MGLs 3QFY19 revenue came in at Rs 7.53bn, up 29.5% YoY led by 8.1% YoY increase in volumes to 3mmscmd and 26.6% YoY increase in realisation for PNG to Rs 33.3/scm, led by industrial and commercial segment. Despite a 10% sequential increase in APM prices, MGLs raw material prices were up 7.6% because of lower LNG prices and the appreciation of rupee.

penetration from rising vehicle and PNG penetration. We continue to like MGL's business given their dominating share in the growing markets of Mumbai and suburbs. Reiterate BUY. Healthy margins and volume traction drive earnings: Mahanagar Gas' (MGL's) reported Q3FY19 EBITDA and PAT at Rs2.4bn (PLe: Rs2.2bn; +19%YoY) and Rs1.48bn (PLe: Rs1.4bn; +20%YoY), respectively. The earnings momentum was due to higher than expected Q3 gas sales volume of 8.1% YoY and better margins. Going forward, CNG volumes is likely to remain healthy on the back addition of new...

29 January 2019 Against our expectation of +6% volume growth, MAHGLs total volume growth came in at +8% YoY for 3QFY19. INR appreciation helped the company to increase its EBITDA/scm from INR8.1 in 2QFY19 to INR8.8 in the quarter. Led by higher volumes and margins, EBITDA came in at INR2.4b (est. INR2.2b, +19% YoY, +8% QoQ), while PAT came in at INR1.5b (est. grew at 8% YoY while total PNG growth stood at 7%. Within PNG, domestic volume grew at 13% YoY, 6% QoQ. MAHGLs total sales volume stood at 2.96mmscmd, a growth of 8% YoY, flat sequentially.