Mahanagar Gas Ltd. share price target

mmbtu), as it procured spot LNG in 1QFY20. Despite sequential increase in APM gas prices (from US$3.36 to US$3.69/mmbtu) the company's cost of gas reduced by 5% QoQ. Reported EBITDA grew by 31% YoY and 29% QoQ to Rs2.7bn (18%/26% above street and our estimates), while EBITDA realisation of Rs10.3/scm improved by Rs2.2/scm YoY. Other expenses declined by 13% QoQ impacted by Ind As-116. Reported net profit grew by 33% YoY and 28% QoQ to Rs1.7bn (above street and our estimates). MAHGL is reaping benefits of lower spot LNG prices, which is likely to continue at least in 2QFY20. In view of the recent correction in the stock price,...

MGL reported lower than anticipated volume growth of 3.8% YoY against our expectations of 7.1% YoY. Lower growth in CNG volume at 2% YoY (our estimate: 6.5%) to 2.16 mmscmd mainly led to disappointing volume growth. On the PNG front, growth momentum in terms of volumes was maintained which increased 8.7% YoY to 0.8 mmscmd. The volume growth rate is lower than MGL's average growth rate of 6-6.5% witnessed over last few years. We have marginally lowered MGL's volume outlook to 5-6% CAGR in the coming years due to lower CNG growth assumptions. Given...

Mahanagar Gas's (MAHGL) Q1FY20 PAT was well above estimates at Rs 1.7bn (+20% YoY).

MGL is an excellent cash annuity model with decent dividend yield. Promoter offloading some stake has weighed down on the valuations, however, the uncertainty of around this is over by BG Asia selling off their remaining 10 pc stake (complete exit) as markets have reacted positively to the news. We structurally like MGL as there is improvement in their operational performance. MGL has lesser GA's than its peers but their profitability is higher than its peers. With volume outlook looking stable and spreads likely to sustain, outlook gets better. Based on DCF valuation,...

Volume traction with strong spreads. Maintain Accumulate. MGL's Q4FY19 results were below our estimates on all parameters. The CNG growth on a sequential basis was impacted by the BEST strike. The growth in the PNG segmentdomestic was flat and industrial was low was adversely affected, due to competing fuels. We expect the industrial and commercial segment to revive as crude oil prices rise. With the ongoing capital expenditure, MGL is trying to increase its footprint, especially in the Raigad region. The green fuel push by the government will entail easy...

MGL did not win any new GAs in either of the recently concluded ninth or tenth rounds of CGD biddings. This factor may weigh on its long-term growth. We believe that the company will continue to enjoy pricing power and be able to maintain its per unit margin due to a loyal customer base of CNG and commercial customers (who together comprise ~80% of total sales mix) that are less price sensitive than industrial customers. Moreover, we do not foresee any significant regulatory adversity in its CGD business either through a change in gas allocation or capping returns. We maintain BUY on MGL after an in-line performance in 4QFY19. Our target is Rs 1,113/sh (19x Mar-21E standalone EPS).

The quarter reported healthy volume growth rate of 7.4%, higher than MGL's average growth rate of 6-6.5% witnessed over last few years. The higher growth was on account of high CNG volumes at 2.2 mmscmd (increase 6.9% YoY) due to higher usage of public transportation and higher fuel consumption per vehicle. Also, on the PNG front, volumes continued their growth momentum of 9% YoY to 0.8 mmscmd. MGL plans to aggressively set up CNG stations (current: 236 stations) with 20-25 additions per annum. On PNG front too, MGL has plans run rate of more than 1 lakh PNG...

increased gas penetration from rising vehicle and PNG penetration. We continue to like MGL's business given their dominating share in the growing markets of Mumbai and suburbs. Reiterate BUY....

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Mahanagar Gas (MGL) reported its Q3FY19 results that were above our estimates driven by higher volumes as well as gross margins per...

Our target is Rs 1,125/sh (19x Dec-20E standalone EPS). Maintain BUY. MGLs 3QFY19 revenue came in at Rs 7.53bn, up 29.5% YoY led by 8.1% YoY increase in volumes to 3mmscmd and 26.6% YoY increase in realisation for PNG to Rs 33.3/scm, led by industrial and commercial segment. Despite a 10% sequential increase in APM prices, MGLs raw material prices were up 7.6% because of lower LNG prices and the appreciation of rupee.