Mahanagar Gas Ltd. share price target

We initiate coverage on Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) with a BUY recommendation and a target price of Rs 1,540/share, implying a potential upside of 20% from the current market price (CMP)

MGL delivered a steady performance, driven by its robust infrastructure network, strong customer base and a reliable, albeit costlier, gas sourcing strategy. However, looking ahead, we expect MGL's focus on expanding its footprint in newly acquired geographical areas to come at the behest of discounts as it tries to balance lost volumes due to faster EV adoption and declining institutional demand. Additionally, we also factor in the management's reduced margin guidance and unpredictability in APM and new well gas allocations. Further pass-through of cost increases could be...

Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL)’s 1QFY26 adj. EBITDA margin of INR9.7/scm was below our est. of INR10.6/scm (reported EBITDA: INR12.9/scm).

As a result of relaxation in pricing terms for industrials combined with incentives for goods carriers taken a few quarters back, MAHGL continued its stellar volume growth at 9.6% in Q1FY26. Adj EBITDA/scm stood at Rs9.7. As a result, Adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs3.7bn (Ple/BBGe Rs4bn, -11% YoY and +18% QoQ). Adjusted PAT stood at Rs2.4bn (Ple Rs2.8bn, BBGe Rs2.6bn, -9% YoY and +6.8% QoQ). We believe that the volume momentum is likely to sustain, especially due to strong pick up in GA3, momentum in CNG adoption by goods...

Valuations inexpensive: Over the last eight months, MAHGL’s share price has corrected ~30%, with the stock now trading at 11x FY27E P/E.

MGL’s Q4FY25 SA adj EBITDA/APAT of Rs3.2/2.1bn missed our estimates by 5%/6% due to 5% higher unit opex. EBITDA/scm of Rs8.3 was hence 5% below estimate and flat QoQ.

We downgrade the stock from Accumulate' to Hold amid recent runup in the stock. MAHGL reported adj EBITDA of Rs3.2bn in Q4FY25, down 20% YoY (PLe: Rs3.6bn, BBGe: Rs3.5bn). Miss was mainly on account of higher opex. The adjustment is on account of reversal of discounts given to the OMCs of Rs633.5mn. Adj PAT came in at Rs2.1bn, down 22.6% YoY (PLe: Rs2.4bn, BBGe: Rs2.5bn). For the full year, adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs14.5bn, -21.5% YoY. FY25 adj PAT stood at Rs10bn, -22.7% YoY. We build in volume growth of 10%...

Q2 results were broadly in line with our forecasts. Factoring in stronger growth momentum, we raise FY24-27E volume CAGR to 8.4% from 7.5%

Mahanagar Gas Ltd.’s (MAHGL) EBITDA decreased 20% YoY to INR4.2b in 1QFY25, mainly driven by a 29% YoY dip in EBITDA/scm to INR11.9.

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) has reported Q1FY25 EBITDA/PAT of INR 4.2/2.85bn (+6/+7% QoQ; -20/-23% YoY), well ahead of I-Sec’s estimates of INR 3.9bn/2.6bn.

Total gas consumption is likely to improve to 500mmscmd in FY30 from
185mmscmd in FY24. Further, the CGD sector’s gas consumption is likely to
grow to 103mmscmd in FY30 from 34mmscmd in FY24.

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) hosted its analyst meet on 7-Jun-24, highlighting its strong FY24 performance, and guided to a steady 5-year volume CAGR of 6- 7%/>10% in standalone (SA)/Unison Enviro (UEPL) vs. ~5% during FY19-24.

MGL’s Q4FY24 SA EBITDA/PAT of Rs3.9bn/Rs2.7bn was 6%/10% lower than
our expectation, mainly due to lower realization (higher industrial volume
share) affecting gross margin and on slightly higher opex.

BJAUT: Healthy revival but priced in; downgrade to SELL. TVSL: On a fast track raise to BUY. SBICARD: Asset quality concerns persist; downgrade to HOLD. LAURUS: Challenges galore cut to SELL. CIPLA: Healthy revenue growth, strong margins. MAHGL: Volume growth accelerating, reiterate BUY. DCBB: NII sequentially flat on high interest cost. SBILIFE: ULIP-led growth; maintains market leadership