Can Fin Homes Ltd. share price target

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Can Fin Homes’ (CANF) PAT for 3QFY26 grew ~25% YoY to INR2.6b (in line). NII grew 22% YoY to ~INR4.2b (in line). Fee and other income stood at ~INR97m (PY: INR58m).

BUY with a target price of Rs 957, implying an upside of 10% from the current market price (CMP)

Asset quality experienced slight improvement, with GNPA/NNPA declining to 0.94%/0.48% from 0.98%/0.54% in Q2FY26. The company's credit cost remained very low, with provisioning largely limited to new growth, highlighting effective...

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock

Can Fin Homes’ (CANF) PAT for 2QFY26 grew ~19% YoY to ~INR2.5b (~5% beat). PAT grew 16% YoY in 1HFY26 and is expected to rise ~20% YoY in 2HFY26.

Average ticket size is 25 lakh for housing, 14 lakh for non-housing loans Q2FY26 performance: Canfin Homes reported healthy performance in Q2FY26. Steady disbursement at 2545 crore (6.9%), was offset by pre-payment resulting in AUM growth being broadly steady at 8.4% YoY/ 2.3% QoQ to 39,657 crore. NII grew 19.1% YoY to 405 crore (up 11.5% QoQ), driven by 27 bps YoY/ 38 bps QoQ in margin to ~4%, on the back of reduction in cost of borrowing. Opex remained elevated, keeping CI ratio at 18.55%, however, healthy top-line resulted in 18.9% YoY growth in earnings at 251 crore with RoA at 2.46%. Asset quality remained...

Net profit slightly beat estimates by 1.4% (up by 12.1% y-o-y and down by 4.3%) to Rs. 224 crore driven by AUM and NII growth, however partially offset by higher credit cost.

The cost-to-income ratio in Q1FY26 inched up mainly due to a one-time actuarial PAT grew modestly by 12.1% YoY to Rs. 224 cr in Q1FY26, despite an uptick in Asset quality experienced slight deterioration, with GNPA/NNPA rising to 0.98%/0.54% from 0.91%/0.49% in Q1FY25. The Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR)...

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock

CANF saw a stable quarter as disbursals were in-line leading to AUM growth of 9.0% YoY, while NII was a beat at 3.7% due to lower cost of funds. Despite repo cut of 100bps, company expects NIM of 3.5% in FY26 (3.6% in FY25) as (1) certain portions of bank and NHB borrowings would be repriced lower due to their floating nature and (2) only 5% loans shifted from annual to quarterly reset (67% still at annual reset). Hence, we raise FY26E NIM by 9bps to 3.46%. While both Karnataka and Telangana are stabilizing in business terms, recovery has been slower due to state-specific issues. Disbursal and loan...

Can Fin Homes’ (CANF) PAT for 1QFY26 grew ~12% YoY to ~INR2.24b (in line). NII grew 13% YoY to ~INR3.6b (in line). Fees and other income stood at ~INR93m (PY: INR70m) for the quarter.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock

Net earnings slightly beat estimates by 3.6% to Rs. 234 crore in Q4FY2025. NII was slightly below estimates by 0.8% (up 6.3% y-o-y and 1.1% q-o-q) at Rs. 349 crore due to a higher cost of borrowings.

CANF saw a steady quarter as disbursals were 6.7% higher to PLe at Rs24.6bn although NIM was a slight miss at 3.8%. Credit growth for FY25 was muted at 9.2% YoY due to issues in Karnataka/AP/Telangana which are being resolved. In FY26, company is targeting a disbursal growth of 20% and AuM growth of 13-15% YoY. However, we see a lower AuM CAGR of 11.5% over FY25-27E given (1) LOS/LMS adoption may impact disbursals (2) competition may increase due to falling interest rates. CANF sees a lesser impact of rate cuts on NIM due to faster repricing of liabilities; it has guided a 3.5% NIM for FY26E (vs 3.6% in...

Can Fin Homes (CANF)’s 4QFY25 PAT grew ~12% YoY to ~INR2.3b (in line). FY25 PAT grew ~14% YoY to INR8.6b. 4Q NII grew ~6% YoY to ~INR3.5b (in line). Fees and other income stood at ~INR168m (PY: INR159m).

In our interaction with the management, it reiterated its disbursement/AUM growth target for FY26E. It expects AUM growth to improve to ~15% for FY2026E (vs sub ~10% for FY25E) despite challenges in its key market Karnataka & Telangana.

Operational metrics weaken, growth in disbursement lags

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock