Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. share price target

We increase our FY21E earnings estimates by 45% to incorporate inventory gains of Rs30bn in H1FY21 and make minor changes and increase FY22-23E by 5%. During Q2FY21, core standalone EBIDTA adjusted for inventory gains and forex gains was low at Rs12.5bn (-63%QoQ) due to lower core refinery...

BPCL is a leading player in the Indian petroleum industry

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd is one of India's leading oil & gas companies. It operates refineries located in Kochi, Mumbai, Bina and Numaligarh. The company's marketing infrastructure consists of...

BPCL's Q1FY21 EBITDA/PAT was a beat to our estimates at Rs Rs388bn/39.7bn led by stronger marketing margins and lower than expected other expenses. Reported GRM came at US$0.4/bbl owing to inventory loss of Rs4.4 bn while core GRM stood at US$1.9/bbl, in line with our estimates. Demand for petroleum products has now improved to 90% MoM in July 2020 but they continued to operate at ~73% of utilization level as current lower crack spreads of MS and HSD is not profitable. While the management expect long-term marketing margin to remain in the range of Rs 2-2.5/ltr, currently higher marketing margin is to recover capex incurred for BS-VI products. The company expects the deal to be over by...

Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. reported Sales volume down 32% and operating profits rose 43% to Rs 4259.87 crore, in line with estimates BPCL consolidated net sales fell 50% to Rs 37999.25 crore for the quarter ended June20 compared to corresponding previous year period. This included nil subsidy from the government compared to subsidy of Rs 139.22 crore. Excluding compensation from the...

14 August 2020 Reported EBITDA was higher than est. INR25.2b and INR21.5b in 1QFY20), led by lower other expenditure. Opex decreased in INR terms and stood roughly at ~USD2/bbl during the quarter. Inventory gains for the quarter stood at INR5.6b (on refining loss of INR4.4b and marketing gains of INR10b). Adj. for inventory, EBITDA stood at INR34.1b (v/s INR26b in 1QFY20). The company reported forex loss of INR0.6b.

We maintain our FY21/22 earnings estimates. During Q1FY21, core standalone EBIDTA adjusted for inventory gains and forex loss was healthy at Rs34.0bn (+31%YoY) despite lower refining margins ($0.4/bbl vs $2.8/bbl in Q1FY20). Weak global demand and high inventory levels will likely keep crude oil prices range bound, thereby supporting marketing margins in medium term. Meanwhile GRMs will also recover with pickup in economic...

lower sales due to the Covid-19 lockdown. BPCL consolidated net sales fell 7% to Rs 68997.83 crore for the quarter ended Mar20 compared to corresponding previous year period. This included subsidy from the government...

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) is a leading player in the Indian petroleum industry with operations in both refining and marketing segments.

BPCL Q4FY20 result was impacted negatively by higher inventory losses (Rs49 bn) and higher forex loss (Rs12 bn). Adjusting to that, result is largely in line with consensus estimates. Reported GRM came at US$0.5/bbl whereas core GRM came at US$7.7/bbl owing to higher discount and better diesel cracks. Demand for petroleum products also improved 67% MoM in May'20 and now just 30% YoY down. Also, refinery is now running at 83% utilization which was 63% and 77% in Apr-May'2020. We expect GRM of US$2/bbl and US$4/bbl in FY21 and FY22 respectively while marketing margin to remain stable on a YoY basis. We forecast EBITDA/PAT of Rs92/34 bn in FY21 and Rs127/56 bn in FY22...