Bharat Forge Ltd. share price target

Exit poll results predict an easy win for the ruling BJP party. Poll of polls predicts NDA will win 315 seats out of 542 seats and UPA alliance is expected to win 111. As a result, domestic markets opened higher today with 10Y yield lower by 6bps, INR up by 1.1% and Sensex gaining over 2%. Notably, the error rate in final results and exit polls can be 15-20%. A clear majority, counting on 23 May) will ensure India's outperformance when global markets are facing significant headwinds in the form of subdued growth and US-China trade war....

Key highlights from earnings call: (a) In FY19, BHFC won new orders worth USD50m of this, 60-70% was from the non-CV segment. (b) US Class 8 volumes expected at 330k in CY19 (+5% YoY). (c) Sees headwinds in CVs (domestic), PVs (global) and Oil &Gas; (O&G;) in 1QFY20, but expect recovery from 2QFY20. (d) Capex for FY20 at INR4-5b (FY19 at ~INR8.6b); expect capex intensity to decline significantly post FY20. Valuation view: We have lowered our FY20/21 consol. EPS by ~10%/2% to factor in headwinds in key businesses. BHFC has delivered strong operating...

BFL's new value added order received on aluminum forging is on track from the new AP plant. Further implementation of BS-6 emission norms will witness an increase in content per vehicle for domestic trucks and cars. Despite higher RM price BFL has maintained its EBITDA margin...

Bharat Forge (BFL) reported a healthy Q3FY19 performance. The real surprise was beat on EBITDA margins, which came in at 31.1% Revenues for the quarter came in at | 1,693 crore, up 21.7% YoY. Domestic revenues came in at | 674 crore (up 16.8% YoY) while export revenues were at | 976 crore, up 25% YoY Revenue from the CV & PV segment (auto segment) grew 13% YoY to | 691 crore & 2.2% YoY to | 153 crore. Revenue from industrial segment grew 34% YoY to | 732 crore...

Bharat Forge (BHFC) reported standalone revenues of Rs 16.9bn (+22% YoY) in Q3FY19, led by a muted 3% rise in tonnage volumes and above-expected realisations (+18%). EBITDA/adj. PAT grew 17%/24% YoY to Rs 4.9bn/Rs 2.8bn. In our view, the buoyant growth phase in CVs is ebbing in India and the US, with a bleak demand environment in Europe as well we thus pare FY19FY21E earnings by 11-16% and lower our target P/E from 25x to 17x. On...

Results Ahead of Estimates Maintain BUY: BFL's Q3FY19 PAT was above our estimates supported by robust operational performance on volume growth and average realization front.

Bharat Forge Ltd (BFL) is a leading player in the forgings industry. The company is serving several sectors including automobile, power, oil and gas, rail & marine, aerospace, construction, mining etc. BFL's new valued added order's received on aluminum forging is on track from the new AP plant. Further implementation of BS-6 emission norms will witness an increase in content for domestic trucks and cars. Q2FY19 standalone revenue grew by 34%YoY due to 19%YoY growth in the tonnage volume and superior product mix....

Growth outlook remain intact Retain HOLD: BFL's Q2FY19 results were mixed bag. The Company is currently witnessing improved business outlook in India and in the international market.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Bharat Forge's Q2FY19 revenues came in at | 1,679 crore, up 33.5% YoY, 13.5% QoQ above our estimate of | 1,558 crore. Domestic revenues came in at | 695 crore (up 31.5% YoY, 15.8% QoQ) while export revenues increased 34% YoY, 11.7% QoQ to | 943 crore. Its other operating income grew 59% YoY to | 41 crore Reported EBITDA margins came in at 25.9%, down 350 YoY, 310 bps QoQ, against our estimate of 29.4%. Reported PAT was at | 227.5...

2 November 2018 Revenue grew 34% YoY to INR222.6k). Both Auto and Non-auto segment revenue increased ~30% YoY. at INR4.3b; growth was restricted by higher RM cost (+290bp QoQ due to RM inflation and mix) and forex revaluation (impact of 240bp). EBITDA margin of 25.9%, thus, was below our estimate of 28.8%. PAT of INR2.3b also came in lower than our estimate of INR2.4b due to higher depreciation and tax. 1HFY19 S/A revenue/PAT grew by 28%/22% YoY, implying second-half residual growth of ~28%/18%. (a) Management expects continued broad-based growth in 2HFY19. (b) Expect ~25%/5% growth in US Class 8 truck orders in CY18/19; billing growth expected to be much higher in CY19.