Bharat Forge Ltd. share price target

BHFC’s standalone earnings at INR3.15b came in line with our estimate. Revenue came in below our estimate, whereas margins surprised positively.

Despite a weak quarter primarily due to global uncertainties, BFL's diversified streams of revenue across geographies and new businesses & verticals have led to a resilient performance. Standalone revenue for Q1FY26, de-grew by 10% YoY due to weak export revenue....

In 4QFY25, BHFC (standalone) posted a 9% YoY decline in PAT to INR3.6b (in line). The key highlight of 4Q was that the US subsidiary achieved EBITDA break-even for the first time in many quarters.

Bharat Forge Q3FY25 consolidated revenue declined for 2nd consecutive quarter as revenue was down by 10.1% YoY, 21%/8% lower than PLe/consensus estimates. The de-growth in revenue was due to persistent challenges in European business as well as a slowdown in defence business. Consequently, this led its gross profit to decline by 3.9% YoY, however, margin improved by 376bps YoY to 57.7%. EBITDA declined by 10.5% YoY while margin remained flat at 18%. Subdued overall performance led its PAT to decline by 12.3% YoY. BHFC delivered weak Q3FY25 performance with the outlook for European...

We met BHFC’s management team recently to understand the company’s growth outlook in the coming years. the robust order backlog of INR54b in defense exports to be executable over the next three years.

Bharat Forge’s (BHFC) Q1FY24 standalone EBITDA margin was resilient at 26%, though EU operations turned EBITDA positive to 4.4% as against being in loss last quarter. Standalone revenue beat expectations despite this being a weak quarter for domestic CVs, with industrial exports driven by defence business execution driving revenue up QoQ as against CV segment exports remaining flattish QoQ.