BEML Ltd. share price forecast

BEML reported standalone sales of Rs621cr for 2QFY2016, up 37.7% yoy (ahead of our expectation of Rs599cr). At the EBITDA level, the company reported losses of Rs13cr, in-line with our expectation. The impact of losses at EBITDA level was seen at the PAT level too, as the company reported a net loss of Rs30cr, against our loss expectation of Rs12cr. Notably, the quantum of loss has narrowed down on a yoy basis. BEMLs order book as of 2QFY2016 stands at ~Rs6,376cr, which gives revenue visibility for over the next few quarters. Valuation: During the quarter, BEML impressed us by reporting strong execution, mainly seen across the Construction & Mining Equipments segment. Also, BEML has reported a Rs1,771cr of order inflows, across all the 3 business segments. Reported order inflows, emerging bid pipeline, indicate us that BEML should end FY2016E with strong order inflows of Rs2,900cr. A strong awarding environment should lead to improvement in the execution. Accordingly, we expect BEML to report a 19.4% top-line CAGR during FY2015-17E. At the back-drop of improved execution and better absorption of fixed costs, we expect BEML to report a strong 529.2% PAT CAGR during FY2015-17E. On the whole, we are optimistic that the...

We expect the revenue to grow at a CAGR of 22% during FY15-FY17E and EBITDAto increase at a CAGR of 128% during FY15-FY17E. Accordingly, we also expectRoCE to expand to 13% and 15% during FY16E and FY17E from 4% in FY15 onthe back of higher execution of orders in hand.

BEML, is a Miniratna PSU, having business interest in Construction and Mining (C&M;) Equipment, Defence and Railways. Under C&M; equipment, it manufactures a wide range of heavy earthmoving...