Affle 3I Ltd. share price target

Affle 3i’s H1FY26 revenue grew ~19.3% y/y to ~Rs 12.7bn, with CPCUrevenue up ~18.2% y/y (~98.8% of topline) and rest from non-CPCU. EBITDA grew ~31.2% y/y to ~Rs2.86bn with margins expanding 205bps y/y to ~22.6%.

We recommend a BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,900/share, implying an upside of ~10% from the CMP

Quarterly Update Q2FY26

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Sustained broad-based growth across geographies: Affle reported 19% YoY revenue growth with robust traction across India (74% of mix; +20% YoY supported by early festive spending) and international markets (26% of mix; +16.8% YoY). The ban on real money gaming did impact the company this quarter (expected to extend into Q3) but was offset by better demand and early festive spending. Converted users rose 1.5% QoQ/ 15% YoY to 109 million while CPCU remained stable at 58, underscoring strong advertiser demand despite temporary real money gaming impact. Moreover,...

We view Affle 3i (Affle) as a play on the structural shift of ad spend towards digital in India and other emerging markets, where digital penetration is still low versus global benchmarks.

We resume our coverage with a BUY rating on the stock.

Quarterly Update Q1FY26

Reported revenues grew 19.5% y-o-y to Rs. 620.7 crore in line with our estimates of Rs. 622.1 crore, driven by strong momentum in CPCU revenues. CPCU revenues stood at Rs. 620 crore, up 19.9% y-o-y.

We interacted with Affle 3i’s (Affle’s) management to understand the business outlook and growth prospects of the company.

Quarterly Update Q4FY25

Q4FY25 revenue was flat sequentially and up 19% y-o-y at Rs.602.3 crore, nearly in line with our estimates of Rs.600.7 crore driven by strong momentum in CPCU revenues. CPCU revenues stood at Rs 600.7 crore, up 0.6% q-o-q/19.2% y-o-y.

We attended Affle’s 3i Summit where its management highlighted its plan to be future ready with 10x growth vision and plan. The company highlighted that it has grown over 10x since 2018 and aims to achieve 10x growth through its credible vision and plan.

Management expects over 20% growth in FY25 and is confident of sustaining this momentum, driven by strong 9MFY25 performance, favourable industry trends, and broad-based growth across verticals and markets.

Affle’s Q3FY2025 revenue grew 10.8% q-o-q/20.6% y-o-y to Rs. 602 crore, beating our estimate of Rs. 591 crore, driven by strong momentum in CPCU revenue. For Q3FY2025, CPCU revenue recorded strong growth at Rs. 597 crore, up 10.3% q-o-q/25% y-o-y.

Quarterly Update Q2FY25

Reported revenue grew 4.5% q-o-q/25.9 y-o-y to Rs. 543 crore, beating our estimates of Rs. 533 crore.

Initiating Coverage Report

We maintain BUY with a revised PT of Rs. 1,820 (valued at 47x its Sep26E EPS). At CMP, the stock trades at
58.4/45.1/36.4x its FY25/26/27E EPS.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.