Union Bank of India share price target

NII decreased to Rs. 2193.07 Cr in Q4FY18 compared to Rs. 2548.26 Cr in Q3FY18. Union Bank of India Q4FY18 results Comment

NII declined 14%/8% QoQ/YoY, majorly due to interest income reversal of INR4.4b. This was partly offset by interest on IT refund of INR4.5b (booked in other income). Domestic/global NIM came in at 1.99%/1.9% (v/s 2.34%/2.23% in 3QFY18). Muted trading gains of INR1.3b (-77% YoY) led to just 3% growth in other income. Opex grew 5% YoY, taking the CI ratio to 48.6%. The bank up-fronted gratuity provisions in the quarter. Slippages came in at INR100.4b (INR41.9b in 3QFY18), with a spike in corporate slippages (INR7.9b v/s INR3.4b in 3Q). The bank reported FY17...

Though recapitalisation of Rs45.2bn to UBI announced by the Government of India is long-term positive, it may further negatively impact its book value (as dilution in at discount to current book) and RoE in the immediate term. We expect UBI's credit cost to rise in the medium term, which will adversely impact its earnings over next 2-3 quarters. Thus, the Bank is expected to witness elevated level of credit cost, which will keep its earnings and return ratios subdued over next 3-6 quarters. Hence, we maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock with a...

UNBK reported a loss of INR12.5b. PPoP growth of -15%/-11% QoQ/YoY was nullified by elevated provisions of INR32.5b (8% QoQ decline) as the bank provided INR9.9b towards the NCLT 2nd list in advance, thereby taking care of all provisioning needed towards these accounts by FY18. Provisions also included INR481m of additional provisions towards standard accounts in telecom and power sector. NII growth picked up on a moderate base to 19% YoY to INR25.5b, even with an interest reversal of INR3.8b. Domestic/Global NIM came in at2.34%/2.12% (2.19%/2.08% in 2QFY18). Muted trading gains of (INR60mcompared to INR4.8b in 2Q) led to 35% YoY decline in in other income.

UBI is one of the most capital-starved public sector banks. Its CET1 stood at 7% in Sep'17, which is barely few bps above minimum regulatory requirement. We expect the Bank can be one of the major beneficiaries of recently announced mega PSB recapitalisation plan, as higher recapitalisation will help the Bank to come out of the capital insufficiency situation and return strongly on the growth path. However, the Bank may continue to witness elevated level of credit cost, which may keep its earnings and return ratios subdued over next 3-6 quarters. Hence, we continue to maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock with an unrevised Target...

reversals on SDR/S4A accounts. Domestic/Global NIM came in at 2.19%/2.08% (2.20%/2.06% in 1QFY18). Trading gains of INR4.8b (37% of other income) led to 7% growth in other income. Gross slippages moderated to INR26.9b (4.1% slippage ratio) vs INR44.5b last quarter, while recoveries and upgrades were subdued at INR5.8b, leading to net slippage ratio of 3.03% (5.8% in 1Q). Total pool of NSL (NNPL + OSRL + other stressed loans) increased to INR353.8b (12.2% of advances) on a sluggish loan book. Agri slippages moderated to INR4.2b (INR6.9b in 1Q). 5...

(GNPA) ratio declined 28 bps q-o-q to 12.35%, while net NPA ratio stood at 6.70% versus 7.47% in the previous quarter. Addition of stressed assets during Q2FY2018 was lower as accounts worth Rs. 2,686 crore turned NPAs as against Rs. 4,453 crore in the previous quarter. The bank has undertaken 5:25 restructuring in accounts worth Rs. 174 crore, strategic debt restructuring (SDR)...

Union Bank of India Q1FY18 results comment NII fell to Rs. 2242.6 Cr in Q1FY18 compared to Rs. 2387.03 Cr in Q4FY17.

NII rose to Rs. 2387.03 Cr in Q4FY17 compared to Rs. 2136.62 Cr in Q3FY17.

Q3FY17 PAT at Rs 1 bn was significantly below our estimate, dragged down by higher provisions (up 35% YoY). Asset quality continues to be a pain point GNPAs rose ~100 bps QoQ to 11.7% despite materially higher write-offs (Rs 4 bn). Slippages remaine delevated (~5% of advances) while recoveries a..