Bajaj Auto Ltd. share price target

Bajaj Autos 3QFY16 EBITDA at Rs 11.7bn ( 2% YoY) was slightly above our estimates aided by lower commodity prices. APAT at Rs 9bn ( 5% YoY) beat expectations by 9% led by MTM gains and lower tax outgo. With overall volumes for 3Q declining 3% YoY, Bajaj?s net sales declined by 1.6% YoY to Rs 55.7bn.

Q3 FY16 results came above our expectations despite exports worries Bajaj Auto posted a good set of numbers despite exports underperformance. On the back of reduction in commodity costs and higher realizations coming from better...

Bajaj Auto (BAL) delivered decent Q3FY16 performance with operating margins and EBIDTA coming in line with our estimates. Its revenues/EBIDTA/adj PAT rose -1.6%/2%/6.3% YoY, but fell 8.7%/11.1%/7.5% QoQ to Rs 56.6bn/11.7bn/8.6bn as against our estimate of Rs 55.8bn/11.7bn/8.8bn respectively.

Despite 3.4% yoy decline in volumes, Bajaj Auto Limited (BAL) maintained its EBIDTA margin in excess of 20.0% range, which in our view is largely supported by better product-mix reflected in 1.8% yoy increase in realization. Hereon, we make a note that it is imperative for BAL to maintain better product-mix than to realize increase in volumes, given better product mix delivers healthy profitability than plain vanilla volume growth. Post healthy customer response, the management plans to expand manufacturing capacity of the Avenger to 30k / month by March 2016, given BAL sold more than 20k Avengers in Dec 2015 compared to earlier run...

Bajaj Autos 2QFY16 APAT at Rs 9.3bn ( 6.5% YoY, -8.1% QoQ) surpassed expectations. Strong domestic Net ASP and muted cost trends led to 130bps QoQ expansion in EBITDA margins to 21.6%.

9 EBITDA margin surprised (21.6%, up 130bps qoq) as the company benefitted from better productandgeography mix. Economy contribution to domestic volumes down 600bpsqoqandexportscontributionup200bps...

and exports markets. New product launches, strong threewheeler volumes (driven by new permits) and aggressive pricing will help the company improve its domestic motorcyclesmarketshare.Recentrupeedepreciationandfallingcommoditypricesgives...

realization declined 10.4% qoq due to weak product mix. EBITDA margin was 20.3%, up 141bpsyoy,but30bpsbelowourestimatesasthecompanypassedoncurrencybenefits to its key export markets of Africa. In FY1415, Bajaj struggled in the domestic two...

Bajaj Autos 1QFY16 EBITDA at Rs 11.4bn was below estimates, largely due to lower topline growth. Overall volumes rose sharply by 29% QoQ. However, net sales at Rs 56.1bn grew at lower pace (18% QoQ) as a result of a sharp 8.5% QoQ drop in blended realisations.