TVS Motor Company Ltd. share price target

During Q1FY20, TVS sales increased by 7.2% YoY to Rs44.7bn (above our estimates Rs43.9 bn). Its EBITDA margins expanded by 26bps to 8% (our estimates were 7.5%). PAT of the company declined by 2.9% YoY to Rs 1.4bn (below our estimates of Rs1.5bn).

For TVS Motors (TVS), FY2019 was another great year as the company continued to outpace the industry growth driven by new launches and expanding its geographical reach. TVS grew at more than double the industry rate in FY2019 with its subsidiaries also turning profitable. Return ratios remained strong in excess of 20%. FY2020 however, is likely to be a challenging year, due to a dwindling demand environment. Volume slowdown coupled with intense competitive pressures and cost increases due to regulatory norms, are likely to keep the earnings...

TVS Motors (TVS) is the third largest two- wheeler manufacturer in India with market share of 14.2% in FY19. Q4FY19 revenue grew by 9.4%YoY driven by marginal price hike of 0.4% and increase in export sales(+22%YoY). Volume for the quarter came at 2%YoY, largely due to lower domestic demand. EBITDA margin declined by 40bps to 7% (our estimate were 7.6%)...

TVS motors (TVSL) Q4FY19 results were below our and consensus estimates on operating level. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 7.0% which was below our and consensus estimates of 8.0% and 7.7% respectively mainly on account of high RM cost. We cut our volume and revenue estimates by 1.5% each for FY20E factoring slower growth for 2W in H1FY20 and introduce FY21 estimates. We have built in revenue/earning CAGR of 14% and 21% over FY19-FY21E respectively with EBITDA margin of ~8.4%. We maintain our REDUCE rating and change our TP to Rs430 (earlier Rs480). We reduce our target multiple and value the company at 21x (earlier 23x) on...

We are downgrading our rating from Accumulate to Hold due to sustained Change in Estimates | Target | Reco disappointment on margins and weak industry outlook. For Q4FY19, TVS motor's revenues grew ~10% YoY, ahead of our expectations, to Rs43.8bn....

During Q4FY19, TVS sales increased by 9.4% YoY to Rs43.8bn (above our estimates Rs41.6 bn). Its EBITDA margins declined by 34bps to 7% (our estimates were 7.6%). PAT of the company declined by 19.2% YoY to Rs 1.3bn (below our estimates of Rs1.4bn).

TVS Motor's (TVSL) Q4FY19 volumes were up just 2% YoY while realisations grew a healthy ~8%, leading to a 9.8% increase in revenue to Rs 43.8bn. Weak gross margins restricted EBITDA growth to 9.8% YoY at Rs 3.1bn and EBITDA margins to 7%, while higher interest costs and taxes saw adj. PAT drop 19% YoY to Rs 1.3bn. We pare FY20/FY21 EPS estimates by 6.9%/6.3% to build in lower volumes and margins, along with higher finance costs. Upon...

Margin Under Pressure, RiskReward is Unfavorable; SELL TVSL reported a disappointing PAT of ` 1.33bn (-19.2% YoY). This was despite a revenue increase of 9.8% YoY, led by a higher volume growth (+2% YoY) and better realizations (+7.6% YoY). The EBITDA margins was under pressure (at 7%, flat YoY), as it was impacted by the fall in gross margin (+280bps YoY affected by adverse product mix, negative operating leverage, inventory adjustment, and commodity inflation). The management expects the 2W industry growth to be muted in Q1FY20, and...

below our as well as the consensus estimate. Topline at Rs 4,384 crore grew 9% y-o-y on the back of growth of 7% growth in realizations due to increasing share of nonmopeds and price hikes undertaken. Volume growth slowed down sharply to 2% driven by weak retail demand due to slowing economic growth and rural stress. Operating margins at 7% declined 40 bps...