Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. share price target

After filing ANDA in the US in 2003, the company has come a long way as current ANDA filings are at 487. The US revenue run rate has grown from ~US$100 million in 2009 crossing $1 billion sales as on 2017. Note that this was despite the USFDA embargo in FY12-13 on unit VI and unit III. In rupee term, US sales have grown at 34% CAGR to | 7442 crore in FY1318. US formulations now constitute 45% of total turnover, up from 30% in FY13. However, US pricing pressure in the oral solid space (~77% of US sales) is likely to be the main stumbling block for growth. We expect US FY20E sales to grow at 8.4% CAGR to | 8758 crore in FY18-20E on the back of...

For 1QFY2019, Aurobindo Pharma (APL) posted decent set of numbers on topline. On sales front, the company posted sales of `4,182cr v/s. `3,621cr in 1QFY2018, a yoy growth of 15.5%. On the operating front, the EBITDA margin at 17.0% v/s. 21.6% in 1QFY2018.Consequently, the Adj. PAT came in at `456cr v/s. `518cr in 1QFY2018, a yoy de-growth..

Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals is an India-based leading global generic company. It's predominately formulations export company, with USA & Europe contributing ~70% of sales (FY2018). Amongst the Indian Pharmaceutical companies, we believe that Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals is well placed to face the challenging generic markets, given its focu..

Aurobindo Pharma reported consolidated revenue from operation at `40490mn up 11% on YoY basis and a decline of 6.62 % on QoQ basis. The sequential decline in revenue was mainly because of product recall and stoppage of a bag line in the injectable business. EBITDA was reported at `7881mn, up by 9% YoY and decline of 23% on QoQ basis. EBITDA...

Currently, pricing for drugs under DPCO 2013 is linked to WPI (Wholesale Price Index) while for others an annual hike of up to 10% is allowed. In the near term, the proposed Pharma price index would allow the industry to more effectively set off rising input costs, which WPI does not effectively capture. However, over the longer term, the move seeks to remove the distinction between drugs under price control and outside of it. Essentially, the government's proposal is a covert...

We maintain our Buy rating on Aurobindo Pharma (APL) and revise TP to Rs1,070 (earlier Rs1,170) based on 18x March'20E EPS of Rs59.3. The company's Q4FY18 revenues and net profit were in-line with our expectations. However, EBIDTA margin was below expectation. APL's sales grew 11% YoY, margin improved 10bps to 19.9%, and net profit declined by 1% YoY. APL's two manufacturing units IV and XII have been cleared and received EIR from US FDA. Its specialised segments such as injectables, penam, microspheres, hormones, oncology, vaccines, neutraceutical, depot injections and peptides would improve margins...

Injectable Biz & New Launches to Drive US Biz; Maintain BUY Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP) has reported a weak performance in 4QFY18. Its revenue grew by 11.2% YoY to Rs40.5bn (vs. our estimate of Rs42.6bn) due to 43.3% decline in ARV business to Rs1.5bn and muted growth in US business. Its reported PAT stood at Rs5.3bn, which adjusted for Rs159mn forex loss, stood at Rs5.4bn. Gross profit margin remained flat at 58.8% YoY during the quarter. While its US sales rose by just 5.8% YoY to Rs17.4bn, Europe sales surged by 48.2% to Rs11.5bn. Led by higher employee and R&D; cost, EBITDA grew by just 4.3% YoY to Rs8.0bn, while EBITDA margin declined by 132bps YoY to 19.9%. We maintain our BUY recommendation...

Maintain BUY rating, with a revised TP of Rs 732 (16x FY20E). Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP) reported a top-line of 40.5bn in 4QFY18, up 12% YoY and in-line with estimates. The US business grew 6% YoY, and the European segment jumped 48% YoY (To normalise in coming quarters). The EBITDA margin was down 16bps YoY at 19.9%, primarily affected by several product recalls and incremental competition in gRenvela. PAT at Rs 5.3bn was flat YoY.

Revenues grew 11.2% YoY to | 4049 crore (I-direct estimate: | 4190 crore) mainly due to 48.2% growth in Europe to | 1152 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1106 crore) led by acquisition of Generis in Portugal EBITDA margins contracted 34 bps YoY to 19.5%. Margins were lower than I-direct estimate of 22.5% mainly on account of higher other expenditure and employee cost. EBITDA increased 9.3% to | 788 crore vs. I-direct estimate of | 942 crore Net profit declined 0.7% YoY to | 529 crore (I-direct estimates: | 596...

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Trump scheduled speech on Pharma: more to it than just pricing & generics...