Ashok Leyland Ltd. share price target

Ashok Leyland (AL) reported 3QFY17 results, which were above our and consensus expectations in all the parameters. Net Revenue were above our and consensus estimates due to better product mix, higher realization in export market and recent prices hikes (Nov17/Jan18). Volumes increased during the quarter due to Prebuying (implementation of blowers), increasing restrictions on overloading, fresh tenders in the car carrier and petroleum sectors as well as coal and cement movement triggered by key infrastructure projects. Demand was supported by from FMCG companies and mining activities from eastern states. Net Revenue grew by +58% yoy to Rs71.1bn, above our and consensus estimates...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Ashok Leyland's Q3FY18 results came in line with our estimates. Revenues came in at | 7113 crore, up 60,5% YoY, 17.6% QoQ, marginally below our estimate of | 7137 crore Total volumes rose 42% YoY, 14% QoQ to 46653 units with M&HCV; units growing 41% YoY to 35727 units and LCV volumes growing 45% to 10926 units. ASP of ~15.3 lakh was in line with our estimate EBITDA margins were at 11.1% (up 83 bps YoY, 97 bps QoQ) vs. our...

Ashok Leyland (ALL) reported strong Q3FY18 numbers. Sales grew 60.5% YoY to Rs71.1bn, led by volume growth of 42% YoY and average selling price increase of 11%YoY. EBITDA margins expanded by ~ 100bpsYoY to 13.1% mainly driven by price hikes, operating leverage benefits and turnaround of LCV business, offsetting impact ofhigher raw material prices and elevated discounting.

the operating level, other income fell qoq, while depreciation expenses grew 13% yoy. Due to reduction in tax sops in Pantnagar with application of CGST, the tax rate moved up to 31.7%. Net profits surged by 80% yoy on adjusted basis at 4.5 bn....

Ashok Leyland's (AL) Q2 FY18 margin at 10.1% was better than estimated. However, adjusted for lower benefits from tax free Pantnagar plant, EBITDA margin would have been 10.7%.

Ashok Leyland's Q2FY18 results were below our estimates. Revenues came in at | 6047 crore, up 30.8% YoY, 42.7% QoQ below our estimate of | 6112 crore. Total volumes increased 23% YoY, 44% QoQ to 40967 units. The revenue miss was on account of lower than estimated ASPs (fell 1% QoQ against our expectation of 5% rise) EBITDA margins came in at 10.1% (down 149 bps YoY, up 290 QoQ) against our estimate of 10.5%. The miss on margins is attributable to 1) heavy discounting (no price hike in Q2FY18), 2) Q2FY17 had a...

We have a SOTP-based TP of Rs 141 (10x EV/EBITDA Sept 19E + 0.5x investment book). Maintain BUY. Ashok Leyland (AL) posted in-line revenue (+31% YoY at Rs 60.4bn) in 2QFY18, while margins (-150bps YoY, 10.1%) came in below estimates. EBITDA at Rs 6.1bn (+14% YoY, 13% below est) was hit by higher discounts (+344bps YoY) and RM cost. APAT stood at Rs 3.3bn (+14% YoY, 18% below est).

RM inflation, low fiscal incentives, and discounts impact margins: EBITDA margin fell 150bp YoY (but expanded 290bp QoQ) to 10.1% (our estimate: 10.6%) due to higher commodity prices, heavy discounting, lower incentives at Pantnagar under GST (~50bp impact) and low margins on BS-3 exports. However, lower other expenses diluted the impact of RM cost. EBITDA grew 14% YoY to INR6.1b (our estimate: INR6.5b). Other income was INR0.6b, higher than our estimate of INR0.4b. Adjusted PAT declined 59% YoY to INR1.2b (our estimate: INR2.07b)....

Last year same quarter witnessed a strong export order from Senegal which had elevated the margin performance. Rest of the line items remained more or less in line with our expectations. Adjusted net profits grew by 17% yoy to 3.36 bn while growing at 166% qoq. The sequential surge is due to weak Q1 on the back of BS IV implementation and GST onset....