Ashok Leyland Ltd. share price target

AL is coming up with several new MHCV and LCV products in H2FY26. These include heavy -duty tippers, tractor trailers and multi-axle vehicles with industry-best peak power and torque and other premium features. The company is also foraying into the LNG segment and a bi-fuel LCV product this FY. The new Andhra Pradesh plant is ramping to 200 units/ month by year-end. The company is targeting production of 1650 units/month from the current rate of 950/month. Management is confident in the H2 uptrend, driven by new...

Management retained its guidance of mid-single digit MHCV volume growth and slightly higher growth in the LCV segment for FY26E, led by a stronger 2HFY26E driven by replacement demand, higher government capex, easing steel costs, and new product launches across MHCV, LCV, and alternate fuel platforms.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Ashok Leyland’s (AL) 1Q PAT stood at INR5.9b, marginally ahead of our estimate of INR5.8b, led by a slight beat on margins (30bp) and higher other income.

Q4FY25 revenue grew 6%/26% YoY/QoQ to Rs 119.1bn, aided by volume gains of 4%/27% YoY/QoQ, while realisations stay put

Q3FY25 revenue grew 2%/8% YoY/QoQ to Rs 94.76bn, helped by realisation gains of 4%/6% YoY/QoQ while volume was listless

Surpassing our Rs11.3bn estimate on more-than-expected revenue and less-than-anticipated other expenses, Ashok Leyland’s Q3 EBITDA grew 9% y/y to Rs12.1bn.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Ashok Leyland's reported strong Q3FY25 performance with revenue growth being 3% better than PLe/consensus estimates. During Q3FY25, its volume decline by 1.4% YoY, however, realization increased by 3.7% YoY with the main cause being discipline on discounts, better mix of M&HCV products and healthy spares revenue. EBITDA margin was better than PLe/consensus expectations (12.1%/11.9%) at 12.8%, aided by cost mitigating measures to drive overall profitability. Sharp decline in other income was offset by decline in interest...

We reiterate our BUY rating on Ashok Leyland (ALL) on (1) its focus on profitability over plain vanilla volume growth strategy, (2) sustaining EBITDA margin over the 10% mark, (3) passing on cost inflation to customers to save profitability

We upgrade our rating from HOLD to BUY on the stock from a long term perspective

Despite muted volumes in 2Q, AL reported 100bps margin expansion to 11.6%
on sustained pricing discipline, material cost controls, and growth in the non-MHCV portfolio.

Q2FY25 revenue grew 9% YoY to Rs 87.6bn (up 2% QoQ), helped by flat realisations YoY while volume fell by 9%

With sharp gross margin expansion and healthy traction in non-vehicle business ALL beats estimates in Q2FY25.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation on Ashok Leyland Ltd (ALL) based on healthy momentum in the MHCV industry in H2FY25 as compared to the first half.

We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with a limited upside potential.