Reliance Industries Ltd. share price target

Refinery segment's profit decreased 3.3% YoY to Rs61 bn (IDBIest 66 bn) due to lower GRM and throughput. Crude throughput declined to 17.8mmt from 18mmt in Q3FY16 and GRM reduced to US$10.8/bbl from US$11.5/bbl (IDBIest US$11/bbl). However, Petchem segment delivered strong result where net profit increased 29.6% YoY to Rs33.6 bn driven by strong...

RILs standalone 3QFY17 EBITDA was below estimates at Rs 106bn ( 4% YoY) led by lower GRM and muted petchem demand. Domestic petchem demand was weak on account of demonetisation. This resulted in higher exports with lower margins. The higher other income boosted APAT to Rs 80bn.

We conducted sales and distribution channel check to understand consumers’ response to RJio’s recently launched ‘Welcome Offer’, wherein users can access free pan-India voice and data services. We also discuss the company’ sales target and possibility of achieving that. SIM card distribution channels: SIM cards are currently distributed only via the Reliance Retail channel. Distribution in mom-and-pop and modern stores will be started in 15-20 days. RJio has mapped 2.5lac SIM distributors, and over the coming quarters, we expect it to reach closer to the current number of SIM distributors (4.5lac) and sellers of recharge vouchers (8lac) in the market. ? 1lac SIM sales/day: The run-rate of SIM card sales since the launch of the welcome offer is 1lac/day. With addition of more distribution channels (e.g., modern and mom-and-pop stores), our channel check indicates the run-rate to go up 3-4x. Total current subscriber base is 5m.

The welcome offer may facilitate high subscriber addition given free offerings, but RJio’s key test will be to retain subscribers at INR200+ ARPU. We have factored in about 30m subscribers by FY17E (~4m monthly subs addition) and 60m by FY18E at ARPU of INR216. This leads us to assume EBITDA loss of INR51b and IRR of 7.5%. The key monitorable will be whether the company can reach 60m subscribers by March-June’17 with ARPU of INR 200+. This will be nearly 9-12 months ahead of our expectatio

Robust operating performance in Q1; positive outlook Reliance Industries (RIL) came out with yet another strong result in Q1FY17 where revenue was below our expectation while EBITDA and net profit was ahead of our expectation. On standalone basis, revenue decreased 19% YoY to Rs535 bn driven by 26% fall in crude oil prices and lower petchem prices partially offset by higher petrochemicals volume. The company's crude throughput grew 1.2% YoY to 16.8mmt in Q1FY17 while GRM came at US$11.5/bbl (IDBIest US$10.2/bbl) compared to US$10.4/bbl last year same quarter. Higher GRM was driven by a) gain of ~US$2/bbl including all cracks and inventory gain, b) strong middle distillates, c) more...

1QFY17 saw RIL yet again proving its operational mettle despite weak global GRMs and macros. It achieved its highest ever quarterly PAT of Rs 75bn (+19% YoY), led by strong GRM of US$ 11.5/bbl and robust polymer margins.Petroleum product demand persists, driven by low crude prices. However, we see limited room for a further rise in margins.A sequential decline is likely. HDFC Securities think RIL will nevertheless manage to earn industry beating margins courtesy its superior RM sourcing and increasingly efficient operations.They maintain SOTP based target of Rs 1,155/sh, based on FY18E. Maintain BUY.

Trendlyne has 10 reports on RELIANCE updated in the last year from 4 brokers with an average target of Rs 1141. Brokers have a rating for RELIANCE with 2 price upgrades in past 6 months and 3 price upgrades,1 upgrades and 1 downgrades in past 1 Year.

Top takeaways from Q1FY17 :Consolidated PAT of Rs 71.1bn, 5% above our estimate. Numbers not fully comparable due to IndAS impact, though segment?wise, refining was a major +ve surprise 9 GRM rose to US$ 11.5/bbl qoq from US$ 10.8, despite ~US$ 3/bbl decline in Singapore margins (estimated US$ 10/bbl). ~US$ 2 accrued from spread hedging and inventory gains. Core margin was still a laudable US$ 4.5/bbl premium to Singapore. Phillip Capital lower their deprecation, increase other income and tax rate (to 27%) estimates, though PAT estimates and target price remain unchanged.They maintain positive view and Buy rating on RIL with a target price of Rs.1,160, as the company’s major downstream capex cycle comes to an end with key value?added projects to drive earnings from FY18.

Trendlyne has 10 reports on RELIANCE updated in the last year from 4 brokers with an average target of Rs 1141. Brokers have a rating for RELIANCE with 2 price upgrades in past 6 months and 3 price upgrades,1 upgrades and 1 downgrades in past 1 Year.

Reliance Industries’ (RIL) 1QFY17 standalone EBITDA/PAT were boosted by surprisingly high GRMs of USD11.5/bbl (includes inventory gain of USD2/bbl). Adj. GRM were in line at USD9.5/bbl. EBITDA stood at INR108b (est INR96b; +16% YoY; flat QoQ) and PAT stood at INR75.5b (est INR65b; +19% YoY; largely flat QoQ). Management guided that core projects are largely on track with minor delays (believe 100% FY18 utilization difficult). Jio test subscribers reached 1.5m users; commercial launch will be soon but still did not give any specific timeline. We change our FY17/FY18 EPS by +4%/-2% to factor lower depletion and lower utilization in new core project. FY17 earnings will be function of GRM trend, while telecom launch and its success will drive the stock price movement.. On FY18E basis, the stock trades at 9.3x adj. SA EPS of INR120 and EV/EBITDA of 5.9x. Motilal Oswal roll over our SOTP-based target price to FY18 basis to INR1,129/share.

Trendlyne has 10 reports on RELIANCE updated in the last year from 4 brokers with an average target of Rs 1141. Brokers have a rating for RELIANCE with 2 price upgrades in past 6 months and 3 price upgrades,1 upgrades and 1 downgrades in past 1 Year.

Core oil/gas/petchem EBITDA should see 16% CAGR in FY1618, though telecom profitabilitywouldbehitbyhigherexpenses/capitalisationinitially. WithFCFgenerationof~Rs190bninFY18vs.negative~Rs660/290bninFY15/16,RIL's...

RIL remained unfazed by weak global macros and muted crude prices, making its highest PAT of Rs 274bn in FY16. This was led by a seven-year high GRM, strong polymer margins, and incremental chemical volumes. Robust incremental demand will continue in gasoline and polymers, driven by low prices. However, there is limited room for rise in margins and a sequential decline is likely in FY17.

Reliance Industries' (RIL) reported in-line 4QFY16 standalone EBITDA at INR107b (24% YoY and 4% QoQ), and PAT at INR73b (17% YoY and flat QoQ). GRM was largely in line at USD10.8/bbl (v/s est 11.0). Full year FY16 EBITDA/PAT up 27%/21% driven by GRM at...